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You might want to check your facts Reet.
Sea The Stars 140
Rip Van Winkle 134
Fame and Glory 133I’ll bow to your more recent knowledge DJ, though that wasn’t always the case.
It seems that both trainer and owner agree that that the result of the next Gold Cup could well be ground dependant:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/kauto-star-denman-cheltenham-p-f-nicholls-ground-a-factor-in-gold-cup-clash-nicholls/658553/standard/Timeform would also appear to have rated it through MB, but take a dimmer view of what mark he actually ran to (152, I think – it’s posted elsewhere).
MM 158
MB 151which is probably about right, though had they assessed MB at around his par returns in the mid-high 140s I wouldn’t have questioned it unduly
As for RPR 170 MM I too wasn’t aware of that until now
Least said…
“reet hard”:htnwoizs wrote:
Ginger
quote]Not sure the ground makes a significant difference to who is going to win come March.“It may be that Denman will be better suited to very soft / heavy ground than Kauto Star”
Make your mind up, ffs!
Taking things out of context again Reet.
I can see why you did not want to quote any more of what I said.As I said, “But when do we get very soft ground for the Festival”?
That does not mean just “soft“, it means either “soft, heavy in places” or “heavy, soft in places” or “heavy“. We are extremely unlikely to see such conditions for the Gold Cup since the drainage work.
As I said, on just “soft (but not very soft or heavy) I’d still favour Kauto”.
Therefore: As we are extremely unlikely to see very soft / heavy ground at Cheltenham in March; the ground is unlikely to make a “significant difference to who is going to win come March.
Have you got it now Reet? (ffs indeed)
Value Is EverythingWell chaps (and Crizzy),
I think we can postulate all day about the ground difference and how it may affect the GC outcome next year, but I prefer to look at the facts so far.
KS beat Denman fair and square and Denman beat KS fair and square.
Even if I concurred that KS was slightly below-par when trumped by Denman, I do not think he was so below-par that it affected the result. Denman won by 7 lengths.
Yes, KS beat Denman 13 lengths in 2009 but who would argue that Denman was not below par, and not more below par than when KS was beaten? I think KS was superior full-stop on that day.
The bottom line is surely in visual proof….KS somehow won the Betfair Chase, he grabbed it out of the fire. If Imperial Commander had jumped the last better he would have won. What IC did do, as we all saw, was take KS out of his comfort zone, just as Denman did when winning the GC – and forcing KS to make mistakes at his fences.
IC could be a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen, but I prefer the Tank as he has been there and done it..and against the supreme talent of KS.
Kauto Star supreme…but not invincible.
Zip
How strange that, for many many years we have not had horses winning Gold Cups more than once, and never had one regaining it, and now it seems to be happening all the time.
Well chaps (and Crizzy),
I think we can postulate all day about the ground difference and how it may affect the GC outcome next year, but I prefer to look at the facts so far.
KS beat Denman fair and square and Denman beat KS fair and square.
Even if I concurred that KS was slightly below-par when trumped by Denman, I do not think he was so below-par that it affected the result. Denman won by 7 lengths.
Yes, KS beat Denman 13 lengths in 2009 but who would argue that Denman was not below par, and not more below par than when KS was beaten? I think KS was superior full-stop on that day.
The bottom line is surely in visual proof….KS somehow won the Betfair Chase, he grabbed it out of the fire. If Imperial Commander had jumped the last better he would have won. What IC did do, as we all saw, was take KS out of his comfort zone, just as Denman did when winning the GC – and forcing KS to make mistakes at his fences.
IC could be a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen, but I prefer the Tank as he has been there and done it..and against the supreme talent of KS.
Kauto Star supreme…but not invincible.
Zip
That is a bit selective Zippy. Seems you are only seeing what you want to see. Kauto Star was not at his best in the Betfair or when second to Denman, nowhere near his best. Denman did not force Kauto to make mistakes. Talk of a "comfort zone" is so wide of the mark. Kauto Star is a dual Tingle Creek (2m) winner, Denman is a stayer. Therefore it should have been Kauto who was travelling better than Denman for most of the race. Yet the opposite was true. Kauto only just beat Neptunes Collonges, we know he’s much better than that. So visually (there is no proof) both Kauto Star and Denman ran way below form to be second.
Value Is EverythingThey apparently had MB on 156 before the race, and upped him 6lbs to 162, Friggo.
Oh my days.
No the bloody wonder they ask the public to pay for these essential figures- which all get fudged to joint/co-top on the day anyway. I can’t believe anybody trusted with real money lets themselves be led by such hilarious assessments (I am, of course, not talking about this figure in isolation- the failure of the RP to curb it’s enthusiasm surrounding Snoopy Loopy around this time last year was equally tickling).
If you don’t mind me saying, Grass, I think even 163 for Master Minded is a positive view of the Connaught form, so quite what those cretins were thinking defies logic from where I’m sitting.
Well, Gingertipster,
We are all seeing what we want to see re these two horses.
I 100% stick by my comfort-zone comments.
Imperial Commander showed it and Denman showed it, and that is how KS will be beaten again.
Zip
Well, Gingertipster,
We are all seeing what we want to see re these two horses.
I 100% stick by my comfort-zone comments.
Imperial Commander showed it and Denman showed it, and that is how KS will be beaten again.
Zip
I agree with Ginge, Zippy.
Below is an extract from my post on page 16:
———————————————————
‘This leads me onto Kauto Star. Ted Walsh said after his Gold Cup success last season that he travelled like a horse who had won two Tingle Creeks.Sandown presents the biggest jumping test in the country, in my opinion. There’s no hiding place over two miles around there and if you have a horse that can win a Tingle Creek (beating a future Champion Chase winner in the process) there’s not a staying chaser in the land that can take you out of your comfort zone.’
———————————————————Watching Denman win that on those terms, in that dour fashion, gave me goosebumps. One word. WOW!
What a horse. Tailor made for a galloping track like Newbury. Sheer bliss to watch him take a length out of the challengers at the last 2 down the side.
Incredible beast.Fair enough, Bos.
I think the "evidence" has shown that KS has been taken out of his comfort-zone already. That is why he has been beaten in a Gold Cup and why he was almost beaten in the Betfair.
Just because he has won Tingle Creek’s over 2m it does not mean he cannot be broken over further, or indeed any trip.
This has been proven IMHO.
Zippy
If you don’t mind me saying, Grass, I think even 163 for Master Minded is a positive view of the Connaught form, so quite what those cretins were thinking defies logic from where I’m sitting.
You are probably right, Friggo. It was an initial guess – no more, no less – and I have no qualms whatsoever with Timeform’s less generous interpretation of the result.
The race is very hard to weigh-up, and in such circumstances, I’d expect a professional ratings service to err on the side of caution – not ramp-up an exposed horse’s rating, for what appears to be no other reason than to prop-up a figure for Master Minded.
Well, Gingertipster,
We are all seeing what we want to see re these two horses.
I 100% stick by my comfort-zone comments.
Imperial Commander showed it and Denman showed it, and that is how KS will be beaten again.
Zip
Zip, Snoopy Loopy also "showed it" in the BetFair last year – did you back him for the Gold Cup?
What a performance by the Tank.
Also, what a price at 9/2.
Credit for the run must go to Niche Market who could be a good bet if entered for the National.
"Getzippy" wrote: Well chaps (and Crizzy),
I think we can postulate all day about the ground difference and how it may affect the GC outcome next year, but I prefer to look at the facts so far.
KS beat Denman fair and square and Denman beat KS fair and square.
Even if I concurred that KS was slightly below-par when trumped by Denman, I do not think he was so below-par that it affected the result. Denman won by 7 lengths.
Yes, KS beat Denman 13 lengths in 2009 but who would argue that Denman was not below par, and not more below par than when KS was beaten? I think KS was superior full-stop on that day.
The bottom line is surely in visual proof….KS somehow won the Betfair Chase, he grabbed it out of the fire. If Imperial Commander had jumped the last better he would have won. What IC did do, as we all saw, was take KS out of his comfort zone, just as Denman did when winning the GC – and forcing KS to make mistakes at his fences.
IC could be a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen, but I prefer the Tank as he has been there and done it..and against the supreme talent of KS.
Kauto Star supreme…but not invincible.
Zip
I never agreed with this view. How exactly did Denman take Kauto out of his comfort zone
I was watching ATR today. Mike Cattermole was interviewing Mick Fitzgerald. The subject was Denman’s Hennessy win.
Fitzy said that he asked John Francome (whom he considers to be one of the best judges out there) if he thought Kauto Star could have carried that kind of weight and still won a Hennessy. Francome said no.
I agree.
I am confident, as I was when Kauto Star won the Gold Cup in ’07 and ’09, and just as I was when Denman won in ’08, that all things being equal Denman will once more emerge victorious against his more lauded stable companion come March.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Am I right in thinking that Denman has had a lot less racing than Kauto Star? If so, a lot less miles on the clock. However brilliant Kauto Star is [and I’m a bit slow to comprehend his brilliance] he will surely reach his peak and start to slowly decline. I remember David Elseworth saying all those years ago that he couldn’t understand how Dessie seemed to be getting better each year at an age when he should have plateau’d. Maybe Kauto Star is the same, but he’s been on the go for an awfully long time. I would assume that Denman has been brought along more slowly, being Irish and a big horse who probably needed to grow into himself a bit. [sorry; probably taking utter codwallop]. Also, Denman is of that mindset that will not have another horse get past him. I assume that PN’s love of Kauto Star is partly because he has a sweet temperament, whereas Denman is the sort of horse that will eat you for breakfast. Admire and respect him, yes, but don’t get soppy about him.
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