- This topic has 298 replies, 65 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Entries are out, but the weights aren’t, yet.
However there is a betting market, so time to start a thread.
Before we get into a free-for-all discussing the other horses, I suppose we should address ourselves to the question of whether Denman can win off a mark of 174?
If a horse has to perform 10 lbs better than its rating to win this race, I suppose the answer is yes.
Denman is so well suited to 3m2f+ at Newbury that he’d be a huge threat to anything off almost any mark. If back to his very best I think he could go very close or win off 174.
Although admittedly it would be a hell of an achievement if he could give the best part of 2 stone to a load of potentially improving second season chasers who could themselves be 10-20lbs better than their marks. The thing he has in his favour is that the staying novices didn’t look all that great last year.
Mathematically if he lines up off 174 with 11-12 you need a horse rated 148+ to be in the handicap proper on 10-0+. So I guess it’s time to look through the entries and find a circa 146-155 horse who has the scope for improvement.
What a Friend
152 (likely weight: 10-4) would be one. Goes well fresh, stays very well and has the right kind of profile.
Killyglen
153 (10-5). That mark looks fairly stiff but he is an interesting and improving horse.
Gone to Lunch
153 (10-5) perhaps wouldn’t have the same scope for improvement and may be a bit of a boat but he is another who will stay every yard and is very well suited to Newbury’s big oval track, and could definitely stay on into a place.
Another couple who would be a few lbs out of the handicap but interesting off 10st would be former winner
State of Play
145 and Irish National winner
Niche Market
145. Twiston Davies can get them ready first time up and if he has
Ballyfitz
146 back to his form of early last season he could also be of interest.
Anyone else have any other horses in mind?
Should also add that there are a load of Irish horses entered that haven’t yet been given official British marks on the RP site. Obviously plenty of interesting ones in there too.
I noticed State Of Play’s mark of 145 back in April or May. I can’t help thinking that it is a clerical error. It is a few lbs lower than the mark from which he came fourth in the Grand National, and is the same mark as that from which he won the Hennessy 3 years ago.
I presume the weights come out next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this rating was changed.
If it isn’t changed, I suggest Williams forgets his other horses for this race, and forgets State Of Play’s GN campaign, and goes for this race instead.
Whilst I thought he did ok at Cheltenham I was disappointed and worried by Denman’s display at Aintree, where to me he looked like a big empty crate up the straight.
Sadly, I would be surprised if he was a factor here or in any of the major races this season.Oh well, forget about him for the Hennessy. I knew they were concentrating on the Spring, but I didn’t realise the horse was so fat. Have only just come across this, as I don’t often visit certain sites:-
The nine-year-old has put on so much weight over the summer that he was not ready to be considered for Saturday’s bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, a race which he won last season.State Of Play only had the three runs last term, culminating in the John Smith’s Grand National, in which he finished fourth to Mon Mome.
A return trip to Aintree is the long-term objective again.
"He’s not ready for Wetherby, he’s as fat as a bull. That’s why he’s not got an entry. We will have to see later on in the next month how we get on with him," said Williams.
"He just seems to be so incredibly happy after his National experience. He went home very quickly after the race and he’s just flourished.
"Like some of us when we get a little bit older he’s got a few pounds around his middle.
"My mind is on the spring because we are very keen to try to get back to Aintree if everything panned out correctly."
I think there is a strong Irish team for this year’s race and the most interesting to me is undoubtedly Ballytrim. Winner on his last two starts, which were both real stamina tests, I think he has a much better profile than Be My Royal, who won the race in the past for Willie Mullins. He’s got a bit of class too!
Yes, I believe Newbury are offering something in the region of £750 towards travel costs.
Ffos Las and Perth would go bankrupt if they did the same.
The one I find a bit weird is Ponmeoath, as they have previously said the horse doesn’t travel well. I wonder whether they just think he’ll be okay because he’s older, or whether they are going to try something different.
The one I find a bit weird is Ponmeoath, as they have previously said the horse doesn’t travel well. I wonder whether they just think he’ll be okay because he’s older, or whether they are going to try something different.
I wouldn’t waste too much time worrying about Ponmeoth. If he can win the Hennessy, I’ll quit the game. And being on the game has been great for me.
The horse that catches my eye is Freeze Up. Obviously, he isn’t going to get in this but it seems to suggest they probably think he is a good deal better than his current handicap mark.
I think there is a strong Irish team for this year’s race and the most interesting to me is undoubtedly Ballytrim. Winner on his last two starts, which were both real stamina tests, I think he has a much better profile than Be My Royal, who won the race in the past for Willie Mullins. He’s got a bit of class too!
Think Ballytrim needs 3m 4f+ on heavy ground – that or the vast majority of his starts over fences he’s not been off a yard or option c) he’s just very very very slow.
Killyglen would be my 2nd season chaser for this. He is a jump and gallop type, perfect for newbury. He is also a nice big horse and could improve for the summer on his back. Howard Johnson has never hidden his regard for the horse. Its early days though.
- Total Posts 17716
I was hopeful Don’t Push It would be allowed to take his chance Can’t Buy Time who is sure to get the trip will be JP’s runner. Jonjo has also entered Alberta’s Run but he is more likely to run elsewhere.
Can’t Buy time did find the 4 miles round Cheltenham beyond him but this trip should be a piece of cake for him. You would also expect him to have improved a fair bit being a young horse.
Much depends on the weights and whether Paul Nichols runs Denman or not. They said he was being aimed for the race but now he’s saying What a Friend has it on the agenda.
He said of the latter, "this is a Gold Cup" horse but a couple of day before the RSA he drifted like a barge and ran accordingly……whether he wasn’t 100% or not who knows but something was amiss as PN horses very seldom drift when fancied.
If Denman was PN’s only runner I’d be 100% in his camp. This Denman will never be the same nonsense is total rubbish IMO. He had half the season off and was totally unfit on his first run and they couldn’t have picked a less suitable track, he goes to the Gold Cup still not 100% and runs a cracker. That would surely have taken it’s toll on him and he goes to Aintree 19 days later. He’s up against one of the fastest 3 milers in the country on a track that probably rides faster than any other in the country, yet he’s bang there with every chance when he falls.
He’s had 6 months to get over those exertions and he is only 9year old….Wherever he runs he won’t be beat IMO at least not until March.
If he runs in the Hennessy and What a Friend doesn’t he wins, if he doesn’t then What a Friend will start fav and probably run very well. Other than that I wouldn’t have a scooby at this time.
I can’t have Denman for this – he will be attempting to concede 24lbs to the likes of Gone To Lunch.
I’d be a confident layer at current odds.
Don’t worry Rory, I hadn’t gotten around to thinking about putting any money on Ponmeoath, I was just interested in them bringing him over to England.
Possol
isn’t in the Hennessy, despite Daly mentioning the race after the Perth victory. It may be that the horse is just late back from the summer, or there may be something wrong with it.
My computer and I will become legal tomorrow, so I’ll check the Hennessy entries against my Grand National spreadsheet (which I’m currently unable to access), and see if I can spot any other horses that aren’t in the Hennessy field that one would expect to be.
Denman (IRE)
Exotic Dancer (FR)
Neptune Collonges (FR)
Madison du Berlais (FR)
Notre Pere (FR)*
Joe Lively (IRE)
Albertas Run (IRE)
Halcon Genelardais (FR)
Nacarat (FR)
Snoopy Loopy (IRE)
Mon Mome (FR)
Tamarinbleu (FR)
Cooldine (IRE)*
My Will (FR)
Roll Along (IRE)
Air Force One (GER)
Black Apalachi (IRE)*
Star de Mohaison (FR)
Cloudy Lane (GB)
Mister Top Notch (IRE)*
Gungadu (GB)
Barbers Shop (GB)
Nozic (FR)
Rare Bob (IRE)*
Breedsbreeze (IRE)
Comply Or Die (IRE)
Gone To Lunch (IRE)
Joncol (IRE)*
Killyglen (IRE)
Monkerhostin (FR)
Ollie Magern (GB)
Don’t Push It (IRE)
Miko de Beauchene (FR)
Ornais (FR)
The Tother One (IRE)
What A Friend (GB)
Chelsea Harbour (IRE)*
Darkness (GB)
Possol (FR)
Big Fella Thanks (GB)
Carruthers (GB)
Dear Villez (FR)
Rambling Minster (GB)
Tricky Trickster (IRE)
Wichita Lineman (IRE)
Cappa Bleu (IRE)
Preists Leap (IRE)*
Roulez Cool (GB)
Vic Venturi (IRE)*
Casey Jones (IRE)*
Opera Mundi (FR)
Snowy Morning (IRE)*
Ballyfitz (GB)
Fundamentalist (IRE)
Nevada Royale (FR)
Surface To Air (GB)
Character Building (IRE)
Kornati Kid (GB)
Nenuphar Collonges (FR)
Niche Market (IRE)
Parsons Legacy (IRE)
Ponmeoath (IRE)*
State of Play (GB)
Best Actor (IRE)
Light On The Broom (IRE)*
Shining Gale (IRE)
Wheresben (IRE)*
Jaunty Flight (GB)
Lacdoudal (FR)
Lodge Lane (IRE)
Money Trix (IRE)
Southern Vic (IRE)*
Abbeybraney (IRE)
According To Pete (GB)
Ambobo (USA)*
Arbor Supreme (IRE)*
Battlecry (GB)
Cane Brake (IRE)*
Can’t Buy Time (IRE)
Cornish Sett (IRE)
Eric’s Charm (FR)
Horner Woods (IRE)*
Maljimar (IRE)
Millenium Royal (FR)**
Simon (GB)
Auroras Encore (IRE)
Ballistraw (IRE)*
Hello Bud (IRE)
Leading Attraction (IRE)
Our Vic (IRE)
Russian Around (IRE)
Brooklyn Brownie (IRE)
Fleet Street (GB)
Flintoff (USA)
Kilbeggan Blade (GB)
Russian Trigger (GB)
Standin Obligation (IRE)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.