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I’ve just had some win money on Denman and an each way on Neptune collonges with Hills at 5’s and 16’s.
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Well lads i hope your all wrong . Ive had 200 on the nose for denman , I did the same last year and he pissed it. Im hearing all this 8 pound higher mark buisness and i aint having it. Hes unstoppable at newbury so take the hint. So tell me a horse who can match him. The only danger i see is Weird al but will that horse stay and jump like denman.
Mr nicholls said their is a couple of more memorable days ahead of denman so that will do me.
O mr mclaren , you cant understand why hes favorite . He should be 15/1 . Mate i dunno what you been smoking . Just wait and see and all shell be revealed
I have to say I am not a Pandorama fan, people seem to be latching on to his beating of Weapons Amnesty in the Knight Frank at Leopardstown last year. Weapons Amnesty is a different proposition on good ground as proven in the RSA last season.
Catch Me was unfortunate not to finish nearer to Pandorama that day and judging by his running in the Paddy Power on Saturday, the form of the Knight Frank is extremely suspect.
The two horses who do merit a mention to dethrone Denman are Weird Al and Big Fella Thanks. Weird Al’s dead heat with Little Josh has been franked. Anyone who watched the race were Big Fella Thanks was beaten narrowly by Hey Big Spender at Carlisle would have seen that he wasn’t fully wound up for that race, he traveled and jumped most impressively and judging by his price before the off he wasn’t cherry ripe.
JohnJ
I have to say I am not a Pandorama fan, people seem to be latching on to his beating of Weapons Amnesty in the Knight Frank at Leopardstown last year.
Weapons Amnesty is a different proposition on good ground as proven in the RSA last season.
That’s true about Weapons Amnesty John but it’s also possible that Pandorama ran below his best that day. Meade said after that race that he probably ran him too quick after the Drinmore and that he was 14 kilos lighter than he was when he won at Fairyhouse.
He’s made for a left-handed staying, galloping track like Newbury – his best runs have come at similar courses on soft ground (Naas & Navan). He’s still unexposed over fences as is potentially a lot better than his Irish chase mark of 148 (he was 149 as a novice hurdler and he always looked like more of a chaser).
He’s only been beaten once under rules and that was by Mikael D’Haguenet (although Cousin Vinny was cantering all over him in the Deloitte). 8/1 is a cracking e/w bet IMO. Noel Meade’s horses could not be in better form.
IC,
Unless it is a bog at Newbury I cannot see him being placed, I just think he was favoured by the ground at Leopardstown. I just don’t think he is as good as his form suggests.
JohnJ
Like your style Simon!
Nicholls has said Denman has looked as good as ever on the gallops too!
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Quite agree. No 10-y-o has won since Diamond Edge in 1981. Only two have won it ever – one was Mandarin (and one 11-y-o).
Much as I love the horse, if he wins this one, it will be the greatest weight carrying performance since Arkle. If I was Barry Dennis I’d be rubbing my hands at the prospect of taking him on.
For the record
6-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
7-y-os have won 21 times i.e. 40%
8-y-os have won 8 times i.e. 17%
9-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
10-y-os have won 2 times i.e. 4%
11-y-os have won 1 time i.e. 2%Look for a young ‘un off a feather weight!
"We have decided that the horse has two priorities this season, the King George and the [Cheltenham] Gold Cup, and we weren’t going to jeopardise those by going to Newbury," said Nicholls, through his column on Betfair. "We will leave the Hennessy for this year. But, all being well, we will perhaps target the race first time up next season."
– Paul Nicholls, yesterday.
Sanity prevails. Good call.
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Quite agree. No 10-y-o has won since Diamond Edge in 1981. Only two have won it ever – one was Mandarin (and one 11-y-o).
Much as I love the horse, if he wins this one, it will be the greatest weight carrying performance since Arkle. If I was Barry Dennis I’d be rubbing my hands at the prospect of taking him on.
For the record
6-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
7-y-os have won 21 times i.e. 40%
8-y-os have won 8 times i.e. 17%
9-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
10-y-os have won 2 times i.e. 4%
11-y-os have won 1 time i.e. 2%Look for a young ‘un off a feather weight!
Bear in mind that statistics strive for balance and this could be the race where the figures turn in favor of 10 year old contenders. I don’t think ruling out selections on the basis of age alone is a smart thing to do.
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Quite agree. No 10-y-o has won since Diamond Edge in 1981. Only two have won it ever – one was Mandarin (and one 11-y-o).
Much as I love the horse, if he wins this one, it will be the greatest weight carrying performance since Arkle. If I was Barry Dennis I’d be rubbing my hands at the prospect of taking him on.
For the record
6-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
7-y-os have won 21 times i.e. 40%
8-y-os have won 8 times i.e. 17%
9-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
10-y-os have won 2 times i.e. 4%
11-y-os have won 1 time i.e. 2%Look for a young ‘un off a feather weight!
Bear in mind that statistics strive for balance and this could be the race where the figures turn in favor of 10 year old contenders. I don’t think ruling out selections on the basis of age alone is a smart thing to do.
I see. So if I toss a coin five times and it comes up heads each time will you offer me 5/1 about it happening for the sixth time?
I hope you would check my coin to make sure it had a tails on its reverse and offer me evens.
I love Denman, but I really cant see him giving the weight to these horses at the bottom of the weights this year. In my mind its a much stronger race than last years renewal. Pandorama, Weird Al, Diamond Harry for starters. I honestly believe at least 1 of these will beat him this year (& wouldn’t be surprised if all 3 did) with the weight he has to give them. What A Friend & Barbers Shop are not top class, (even allowing for WAF’s exploits after Newbury last year I still have him down as a bit of a dodge pot).
Weird Al looks really solid to me, but I’ll be backing Diamond Harry. He loves Newbury, crucially shows his best 1st time out & he is carrying my money. This is his best chance of landing a big race this season.
If he was to blow out, I’d love to see Denman pull it off, I just cant see it happening myself.
Clive Smith concluded by saying: "by going to the Hennessy… where Kauto Star would have to concede weight all round."
Wow, you don’t say, Clive ?!
Isn’t that the real measure of true equine greats ? Conceding weight and beating horses of lesser ability ?
In other words, as I have maintained all along – Kauto Star can never be considered the equal of Arkle until he has done so. My belief is that he cannot – and I’m willing to guess that his owner and trainer think likewise.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Think it is the right decision not to endanger a fifth King George by taking in the Hennessey after Down Royal. Be nice to see him in a handicap, but a Racing Post run would endanger the Gold Cup too. As he probably would not stay 3m5f the Whitbread/B365 is out. So where is there a 3 3m2f110yrds handicap chase at the end of the season? If Clive Smith wants to go for a handicap I think it must be the Hennessey, but only if first time out, not after Ireland.
Is he as good as Arkle? Or rather "was" he? As doubt he can produce last year’s King George form at almost 11 years old.
There have been so many advances in food products, training methods etc to suggest horses in general have improved since the 1960’s. Racing is in general more competitive these days that it is possible Kauto Star is now a better horse than Arkle was in the 60’s. Although if Arkle had the feed and training methods of today, he might have been an even better equine. Then again, todays training and food might not have suited Arkle.
Value Is EverythingI quite like statistical arguments but I think the age of winner stats are potentially misleading. The key stat is
winners at age x/runners at age x. If very few ten year olds enter then we would not expect many ten year olds to win.It may be that the adjusted stats tell the same story as the unadjusted stats, but until this is clarified I don’t find them in themselves overwhelmingly against Denman. It’s simply a matter of biology for me.
I have been trying to find out more about the aging process in horses but can’t find out much that is scientific. It seems like roughly you can multiply a horse’s age by 3 to get the human equivalent so Denman would be 31 and a half or just over the hill if he was a human steeplechaser. Does anyone know any more e.g. do French bred horses age more quickly?
I am a Kauto Star addict, he is my favourite ever horse and i cannot think of a FINAL underline than to run in and wint he Hennessy.
Looks like it isn’t happening after PN and CDS decided against it.
In all honesty i think it is the correct decision.. his main goals are the 5th King George and then the Gold Cup. I doubt PN would contradict himself and run Kauto in the Hennessy and then the King George, as he said being fresh is the key with him.
I predict when he reaches 11 YO in march he will be retired, but then again who cares if he has never won the Hennessy or not … he has nothing to prove.. leave the final showdown vs The Tank and IC until March
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