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Some staggering news coming through from <i>the lists</i> <!– s:o –>
<!– s:o –>Horses that drifted from their mid-morning price to off price on Betfair and were held up in the run…
Last 12 months
Tom Eaves 6 161 3.73%
Liam Keniry 8 134 5.97%
Fergus Sweeney 4 134 2.99%
Stevie Donohoe 7 125 5.60%
Cathy Gannon 3 76 3.95%
Jamie Moore 4 74 5.41%
Jimmy Quinn 1 73 1.37%
Tom McLaughlin 3 63 4.76%
Sam Hitchcott 2 63 3.17%
Sean Quinlan 3 59 5.08%
Martin Dwyer 1 58 1.72%
Sam Thomas 1 56 1.79%
Brian Hughes 3 56 5.36%
Hadden Frost 2 54 3.70%
Michael O’Connell 2 53 3.77%
Andrew Thornton 3 52 5.77%
Darryll Holland 2 52 3.85%
Mark Coumbe 3 52 5.77%<!– s:o –>
<!– s:o –>Massive losses reported…. <!– s:wink: –>
<!– s:wink: –>What was the average SP of their mounts?
Was the hold up tactics adopted any different to normal racing style? What tracks? How were the races run etc?
Stats may be quite telling but a lot of things to consider, lies, damned lies, and statistics and all that
I price quite a few races daily and find the prices that go up at early evening / night and are floating around for a bean or two in the morning are laughable, book makers odds compilers are pissing into the wind until betfair starts sorting it out in the morning, by mid day it is closer to what it should be.
I’d love to see the list of horses that drift and then make their move too early…
Move late into a slow pace and move early into a fast pace, jobs a good en.
How do we define "held up"?
I would also like to see thoughts on this. This term is pretty much generic and sometimes can be confusing. Any one else please?
http://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/icon_smile.gif
I’ve always wanted to own a flat horse called A Licence to Print Money.
Is it too long a title?
Yes there’s 20 letters, so even squeezing the words together you would need to lose two letters. And anyway Sod’s Law would dictate it would turn out as slow as a tortoise!
Yes there’s 20 letters, so even squeezing the words together you would need to lose two letters. And anyway Sod’s Law would dictate it would turn out as slow as a tortoise!
You’re missing the point, old son. . .
What was the average SP of their mounts?
Was the hold up tactics adopted any different to normal racing style? What tracks? How were the races run etc?
Stats may be quite telling but a lot of things to consider, lies, damned lies, and statistics and all that
I price quite a few races daily and find the prices that go up at early evening / night and are floating around for a bean or two in the morning are laughable, book makers odds compilers are pissing into the wind until betfair starts sorting it out in the morning, by mid day it is closer to what it should be.
Agree TB, statistics like that don’t prove much (if anything, without knowing a lot more about how each horse is usually ridden and the way each jockey likes to ride.
However, are you sure it’s that way around with bookies and Betfair TB? Could it be betfair punters "pissing in the wind" until insiders (who know what the bookmakers are going to price up) take the value prices. So when bookies prices are known, it looks as if bookmakers odds compilers are following betfair. Suspect it’s 6 of one and…Value Is EverythingYou’re missing the point, old son. . .
Was I? Oh sorry, silly me! Keep up there, North!
Thinking again though, if you lose the first ‘A’ and reduce the ‘to’ to ‘t’ then you have ‘Licencetprintmoney’. Of course the plan still relies on the horse being quick enough to win a race…
Rob
What was the average SP of their mounts?
Was the hold up tactics adopted any different to normal racing style? What tracks? How were the races run etc?
Stats may be quite telling but a lot of things to consider, lies, damned lies, and statistics and all that
I price quite a few races daily and find the prices that go up at early evening / night and are floating around for a bean or two in the morning are laughable, book makers odds compilers are pissing into the wind until betfair starts sorting it out in the morning, by mid day it is closer to what it should be.
Agree TB, statistics like that don’t prove much (if anything, without knowing a lot more about how each horse is usually ridden and the way each jockey likes to ride.
However, are you sure it’s that way around with bookies and Betfair TB? Could it be betfair punters "pissing in the wind" until insiders (who know what the bookmakers are going to price up) take the value prices. So when bookies prices are known, it looks as if bookmakers odds compilers are following betfair. Suspect it’s 6 of one and…Maybe Ginger but I don’t think so, take the 4.05 at Kelso tomorrow, already priced up with 365 and vc at a 122% over round for 2.2% a runner, pretty typical over round for that time of day. Betfair market hasn’t traded a penny yet but is at 156% and every price is under the bookmaker prices at the time I looked. Think it’s just early fishing to see who might be going where and they must be putting up the early betfair prices also, won’t get anything worth betting if you try and take a price but it will give the odds compilers some quick clues. Will shape up very differently by tomorrow once more punters have some input into the market etc
Couldn’t the 122% be purely down to number of bookmakers TB? In this case just two at that time. Bookmakers will work to the biggest over-round they can. Therefore, with very little competition they’ll naturally bet to a wopping over-round. knowing full well once there’s more competition they’ll need to lengthen prices. Why lay 3/1 when you can lay 11/4?
Where there’s very few on course bookmakers at a racecourse (eg Kempton Evenings) the over-round is usually poor, which shows what can happen when numbers of bookies are low. Probably the same when it comes to off course prices. If you ever look at "betting without the favourite", when there are only one or two bookies pricing up – the over-round is larger than the "betting with" market, despite one less runner.
I doubt whether the 122% is much to do with waiting for Betfair to tell them the prices. Once competition improves over-rounds will improve.
If I were a bookmaker I’d rather rely on odds compilers than the early market.
Value Is EverythingWho actually starts the ball rolling on Betfair in a race. Is it them or do punters form the matkets?
The reason I ask is I went on every early one day as I wanted to try and steal a price on a horse I knew was fancied. I was expecting around 2.8-3.00 but when I looked there wasn’t a coin to be seen so I stuck up something like 20 quid at 5.5 just for the hell of it and as soon as I did a few quid was matched. Took me by surprise and I have always wondered did Betfair match that to start the action or was it just some mad punter? I can’t imagine it being the latter as it was in the wee small hours UK time. The horse in question went off at 1.98 and by memory the best price I got after my initial bet was something like 2.9
Good question Fist! Judging by the prices I looked at earlier for the example of Kelso 4.05 it could well be the books given the closeness of the prices, basically doubled the over round and every price on betfair was under the 365 and vc price. From then anyone could come and have a pick tbh, I have made a book and put up early lay prices for a few peanuts before to see if I could get a nibble but people just jumped me and offered bigger prices not so long after.
Of course Ginger the over ground will be high due to lack of competition, Hills have already trimmed something off the over round tomorrow as it is, anyway the over round isn’t overly important to my argument. All I’m saying is the prices that go up early, I’m talking very early, something like 5-6pm are phantom prices and change drastically by the point of greater liquidity the next day.
Two weeks ago Bubly Ballerina was priced up by someone at 16/1 for her run the next day at Ffos Las having run 2 hours earlier and finishing 2nd at Chester, you could say it’s ok it’s just a mistake but its a bloody big one and one a competent odds compiler shouldn’t miss, she was something like 11/2 by the time she was withdrawn. An extreme example but I’ve seen plenty of others.
I’ve lost count of the amount of times I see a price at 6pm and think could be in business here tomorrow, go out in the evening and it’s changed by 10pm let alone the morning.
To be fair Ginger you work generally off higher grade races where as including that I also price up a lot of class 4 upward races also so you probably don’t cast eye on half of the races I am pointing to, the bigger class races with the more exposed form its probably not so common to see obvious mistakes.
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