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Bully, I think you’ll do your brains looking for that elusive performer.
This years 2000 guineas won by one of the most forward 2yo’s of the previous year. Same in the derby.
The 1000 guineas, same thing applies, Natagora is hardly a big filly.
George Washington, The Rock, Attraction, Rusian Rhythm..
The last horse I can think of who was a 2yo who was always going to grow into his frame was Footstepsinthesand.
Even Look Here this year, who didn’t have the form in the book, is a pretty small filly. From what i’ve seen Rainbow View is by far the most likely winner of the 1000 guineas at the moment. I’m also still keen on Shimah given quick ground.
There is a american filly, who’s name escapes and Irish is referring to, who has been winning G1’s by 8 lengths out in the states though so I would not want to back her for the BC.
It is just not in my nature to go with the straight forward simple option
, unless the horse in question is something really special and I become brainwashed by their potential(new approach for instance).Rainbow view is without a doubt the 2yo filly with the best form this year, and she is definitely the one they all have to progress past next year if they want to win, and on that alone she is definitely a worty favorite, at this present time, but she is just not for me. I dont think the 2yo fillies have been very great this year, but no doubt there will be a few open to improvement. I think Cumani’s looks the sort to progress well and she will no doubt be an oaks horse next year.
Dreamtheimpossible looked very underdeveloped on saturday, and put in a decent run IMO without being able to get near the first two home. She is not a million miles away on pedigree from Maids Causeway, who IMO made significant improvement from 2 to three, but was beaten at newmarket by a filly who improved massively over the 2-3 winter Virginia Waters. Haafhd IMO made significant improvement from 2 to 3, and I can remember him being backed at the start of the flat at 33s, as with footstepsinthesand, as with cockney rebel. Azamour also made big improvement from 2 to 3 by my recollection as did snow ridge.
What GW, the Rock, Attraction, Russian Rythym and Natagora all have in common was that they all had speed to burn, and all bar Natagora and Russian Rhythym, got a 2yo seven furlongs quite well. Rainbow view whilst a very good horse is not in the same mould as any of them.
Is rainbow view a worthy favorite for newmarket?- yes
Is she opposable? Yes, a horse like her has such a big fanbase that she will never be value, but there will be value in opposing her. There are a few who I could fancy to improve past the level of form she has achieved so far. But how much will she improve, not hugely IMO.
She is not a million miles away on pedigree from Maids Causeway, who IMO made significant improvement from 2 to three
Always thought GC’s crop ran well at two. looked it up and strike rate is 16% compared with 14% for all flat runners
I dont think the 2yo fillies have been very great this year
What’s this based on? Luca for one, suggested that his is out of the very top drawer.
GC has knocked up top class 2yos, sharmardal a prime example. But many of his have got better with age, Maids Causeway was decent enough at 2 (decent enough to earn a winter quote of 33-1 for the 2005 2000 guineas) but far better at 3. Look at Heatseaker, wasn’t too bad at 2 without being top class, unseen at 3 but amazing now that hes older. Frost Giant and Footstepsinthesand definitely not top class at 2yo but both were better later.
Dreamtheimpossible looked very tall and rangy on saturday and I expect that she can only fill out over the winter which will no doubt bring improvement.
I do think Cumanis filly is going to be top drawer, but being by saddlers wells (out of a darshaan mare I think) I wouldnt expect her to be seen to her full potential until next year (and cumani is probably going on that theory aswell). However a saddlers wells/darshaan that can run that well at 2 is usually going to be something very good at 3, the last I remember who was that good was Alexandrova, and by recollection she got beaten in the fillies mile (was it the fillies mile cant remember) at the end of her 2yo campaign.
Yes, it was the fillies mile – Nannina won that one I think.
About the horses you have mentioned by GC – I would disagree that Frost Giant and Heatseeker improved with age … they just moved to a continent that allows horses to flourish under different substances, and the quality of the turf horses is far below European Standard.
Also, didn’t Maids Causeway win the Rockfel at 2? I may be mistaken..
Maids Causeway did win the Rockfel but it wasnt a great performance by any standards, and she went out for the winter at 33-1, and was untouched, then as soon as the flat season was starting then she started getting backed heavily for the guineas (as haafhd had been the year before). Barry Hills was backing her for that like she wasnt getting beaten and if I remember, she was the biggest gamble on the day of the guineas, and would easily have won but Fallon and Virginia Waters were amazing in that race on the day.
Maids Causeway did win the Rockfel but it wasnt a great performance by any standards, and she went out for the winter at 33-1, and was untouched, then as soon as the flat season was starting then she started getting backed heavily for the guineas (as haafhd had been the year before). Barry Hills was backing her for that like she wasnt getting beaten and if I remember, she was the biggest gamble on the day of the guineas, and would easily have won but Fallon and Virginia Waters were amazing in that race on the day.
I had some of the 33s, and was gutted she was beaten as I had loved since her first run at Newbury. A great mare. Probably destined never to breed anything decent sadly.
Well, whatever I thought of JG’s reasoning behind not running Raven’s Pass in the Mile, I have to admit "the boy done good" last night!
Bravo.
Particularly pleasing to see Curlin beaten on merit – perhaps these Americans superhorses aren’t quite so good when they aren’t tanked up on steroids?
Fully agree TDK as I said on TH. Real poor placement if this horse that the trainer was talking up for July Cups after the Guineas is now aimed at one of the most punishing 10f races in the international calendar.
Well done to Gosden. I was wrong, Though they must look back on the Sussex ride with shame!
, unless the horse in question is something really special and I become brainwashed by their potential(new approach for instance).
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