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Hello again guys, after a manic 12 months or so, where I have had no time at all to look at races, I find myself with a little more time on my hands. Although I am moving house in a couple of weeks so it might be short lived!
Anyway I have dug out and dusted of my handicap value predictor model, and lest see if I can make it 3 our of 3 profitable runs.
I have been looking for a few days and to be honest found nothing at all of interest, today though I have found one.
Its not a big price, but still good value.
I have Daafy in the 18:00 @ Southwell as Odds On so I am more than happy to take 2.9 I also rate Back Form Dubai as strong 2nd fav with a predicted price of 2.4, so I am taking 1.8 for a top 3 finish as I still think Daafy will win.
2pt Win on Daafy
2pt place on Back From Dubai-4
The Turpinators best form is over 7f, hes far from a shoe in here, but does represent value at 13.5 win and 3.5 to place.
1pt win 1pt place in the 14:15 @ Wolverhampton
3.5 returned / -1.5 overall
Ivasecret in the 13:10 @ Lingfield looks interesting, has good form in the bag, better than a lot in this race. Change of yard needs to have given him something, but has won after a long break before.
1pt 3 places @ 4.2
1pt Win @ 18.5The 14:25 @ Catterick is quite interesting. I have Hajey as the favourite but even at 9/2 he’s short enough I don’t think he’s worth playing at that price in this.
The market leader Herakles Westwood I have as a 9/1 shot but that’s more to do with the lack of data, he was off the bridle early being pushed wide to take a very long route around the last bend last time, and kept on well in bottomless ground to grind out the win. He looks hard to get wound up, but once he gest going he has a lot of running, I am concerned about James Bowen taking the reigns again as well. I couldn’t back it and if the price goes below 3.0 I may well lay.
So who to back, Golfe Clair looks interesting to me, need the run after almost 2 years off last time, if coming on for that could well be dangerous off a very good price. Finished a close 2nd here in his last campaign, all be it on faster ground, but has form on soft ground as well. Very lightly raced, but if on song could be great value.
1pt Win @ 36
1pt top 3 @ 6.2Not to be today.
-4 / -5.5 overall
Well I cannot have Toptime as the favourite in this and the price is ridiculous even with the favourable draw. This is a lay bet for me all day long. I do like the price of Basholo, 17.5 is generous with C&D form, and a decent claimer taking 5lb off.
1pt Lay Toptime @ 2.38
1pt Win Basholo @ 17.5
1pt Place Basholo @ 3.75In the 15:20 @ Southwell Bobby Joe Leg can make it a hatrick here with any luck, a favourable draw and course form should see him in good stead. I have him as a 2/1 shot so 5.6 is very generous.
2pt Win @ 5.6
I am going to have a look at a couple of jump races later.
Ah a nice win at last
11.2 back on Bobby – 3 on the first race + 8.2
Classic Concorde is flying at the moment, and despite the rise can surely give a good showing in the 15:45 @ Huntingdon? 17/1 seems crazy.
1pt Win @ 18
2pt place @ 4.5That was a bad looking ride pushed to the front too early……
-3
So that’s + 5.2 on the day, and -0.3 over all
The 15:55 @ Sedgefield is an interesting race, I think its going to be between Onestepatatime and Skyhill who have easily the best form, both are decent prices.
I give favouritism to Onestepatatime
3pt win on Onestepatatime @ 5.9
1pt win on Skyhill @ 9-4 / -4.3 overall
Generous Day is interesting in the 14:15 @ Huntingdon, by far the best from in the race especially in the soft ground. I have him as favourite at 2/1
2pt win @ 6
-2 / -6.3 overall
Moonlight Glory brings good form in heavy conditions to Catterick @ 15:30 the price of 15.0 is far too big not to play.
1pt Win @ 15
2pts Place @ 3.45
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