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It will be a travesty of justice if Frankel does not end up top of the ratings. Handicappers know Dancing Brave was over-rated. Don’t get me wrong, he’s one of my favourite horses. An "I was there" moment at Newmarket in 1986 (and Goodwood’s Select Stakes)… The 1986 Arc collectively THE best quality race I’ve ever seen. But does he really deserve the 141 given by the International Classifications?
The ratings given in the International Classifications at the end of the year were:
Dancing Brave 141, Bering 134, Shahrastani 134, Shardari 132, Triptych 130 (equivelent to 133 remembering 3 lbs can be added for her sex). Presumably they rated Shahrastani as running a pund below his best in the Arc.Dancing Brave won by 1 1/2 lengths from Bering with 1/2 length to Triptych, head to Shahrastani and neck to Shardari.
Is the 1 1/2 lengths really worth 7 lbs? Graham Goode described Pat Eddery as "going for everything". Yes, it’s possible to say he won with a bit in hand at the line, but only a "bit". At 1m4f 1 1/2 lengths is equal to 3 lbs if both winner and second are all out.
How much did Dancing Brave have in hand? Should he be rated as worth over double the actual winning distance back to the second?
You be the judge.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=006B8vgTLs0
Value Is Everything
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