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Handicap Poor Value Lays

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  • #1506941
    bladeblaster
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    The “How to create a lay system” thread got me to thinking.

    Using the same scoring system as my Handicaps Value thread, here are lay bets on those I think represent the worst value in each race.

    I will just do everything as a 1pt lay

    C16:00 Victory Echo Second place last time, but doesn’t seem to like going right handed so far, only 1 chase start so a bit of an unknown but short enough to lay at 8/1 I have him as 20/1 in this.

    Can’t believe went off favourite :unsure:

    PU before the last.

    +1

    #1507021
    bladeblaster
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    Nbu 16:35 Colonel Whitehead – 2nd favourtism seems crazy all of his turf wins have come on fast ground at 7, a definite lay opportunity I believe. I have him as a 50/1 shot in this!!

    +1 / +2

    #1507108
    bladeblaster
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    N16:10 Raymond Tusk – Completely unproven on the ground Lay @ 6.6
    N16:45 Breath Caught – Also unproven on the ground conditions Lay @ 8

    +2 / +4

    #1507462
    bladeblaster
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    CTT15:15 Dirchill I’m going to say that he’s way out of his depth here, I have him as a 20/1 shot in this company currently not layable on Betfair @310 !! However I expect that will shorten considerably tomorrow, I will lay if becomes available below 15

    Well definitely the right forecast, however never really got to a price where I would have called it a value lay, so I left it alone.

    #1507471
    Venture to Cognac
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    Good start with this one Blade

    #1507505
    bladeblaster
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    • Total Posts 1023

    Thanks VTC

    #1507538
    bladeblaster
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    N14:20 Helvetian I’m not sure how this is the price it is? Maybe the Jockey booking?

    Form figures at 5F read 4/9/8/9/4 and on soft ground 9/0/4.

    I’ve got it as a 30/1 outsider in this, so happy to lay at 6.4

    Drifted to 10/1 and as expected never in it.

    +1 / +5

    #1507643
    bladeblaster
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    S14:06 I have Punches Cross as the outsider, has drifted though, and 38 to lay on BF at the moment is too steep for me. I still think it won’t win but 38 isn’t value, I was hoping for around 15. Not going to play.

    #1507737
    bladeblaster
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    Wth14:10 I have Vinnie The Hoddie as the outsider at 50/1 in this so happy to lay @16.5 Not sure the ground on a galloping track will suit, and well up in class.

    +1 / +6

    #1507985
    bladeblaster
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    Ascot 15:40 Adrien Du Pont finished well behind Mister Malarky at Kempton, and Mister Malarky is 22’s here. Worth a lay at 13.5 – Finished behind Mister Malarky again, and at less than 1/2 the price.

    Ayr 14:17 Sultans Pride Big hike in the weights and I don’t think will get the ground. lay at 8.2 – Got the ground better than I expected, kept on well, price was too short here though.

    +2 / +8

    #1508885
    bladeblaster
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    Haven’t seen much in the last few days that stood out, couple today though.

    MUS14:20 My Renaissance. I just can’t understand the price here. Has finished well behind 3 of the horses in the race before, and form going right handed reads P/7/5/7/6 and races he did finish was over 20L behind in every one. Trading at 9.2 for a lay on Betfair at the moment, would have hoped for a little lower but I have him a 20/1 shot in this so will take 9.2

    +1 / +9

    #1509734
    bladeblaster
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    FON15:45 Exxaro – Course record reads 3/3/6, not bad, until you realise that the first 3 was out of 3, and the second 3 was out of 6 and 18L adrift. Ground figures are equally less appealing P/P/6, and at over 3m P/2/P/3/4, has to be a value lay @ 7.4

    Never looked like being at the races.

    +1 / +10

    #1510230
    Venture to Cognac
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    Just the +10 on this one………no good enough lol

    #1510477
    bladeblaster
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    I know mate, 10 out of 10 though, Laying is a slow way of making money to be fair ;-)

    #1510478
    bladeblaster
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    • Total Posts 1023

    15:10 Newc – Phoenix Dawn – Crazy short price in a wide open race where almost any of these could pull of a win on their day.

    +1 / +11

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