- This topic has 17 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Some really good racing today, with what looks the strongest looking running of the Fred Darling in a few years coupled with a really competetive and classy looking Greenham card, again, probably the best in a few years too.
<u>John Porter Stakes</u>
I’d make Centennial the one to beat and 7/2 isnt a bad price for favorite backers IMO, however I’ll just have a small e/w on <b>Ezdiyaad</b>. Have always liked this horse of Tregonings he wasnt in bad form this time last year, has ground conditions and 20-1 doesnt look a bad price IMO.
<u>Spring Cup</u>
<b>Mias Boy @ 12-1</b> looks a cracking bet as he wouldnt have liked the faster conditions in the Lincoln one bit but still ran a cracker for 4th that day, has ground in his favour this time, and if he’s taken his last race in his stride, I’d have him as my favorite in this. Much as I like Mannassas, I dont think he is actioned for this sort of surface and will be staying well clear of him until he gets gd-fm again. <b>Fanjura @ 25-1</b> is another one who hasnt had her conditions in a while and looks to have improvement in her, the Dettori booking also looks like a plus. Also have a healthy respect for Sluuger O’Toole (33s a good price and may him back too), Whistledownwind, Alarazi, and Eurpoean Dream.
<u>Fred Darling Stakes</u>
Really like Maoineach for the 1,000 guineas and obviously make her the one to beat here, as looks to have everything in her favour. Quite afew in the race who have conditions to suit, not least the big talking horse sariska.
<b>Please Sing</b> has won pretty well on both occasions where she has had cut underfoot, and been beaten fairly easily when she has not, she has it tomorrow, and 33s looks a crazy price for an e/w interest.
<u>Greenham Stakes</u>
Really hard race to pick IMO, Obviously have backed Cityscape for Newmarket and have Shaweel on the shortlist but couldnt back either for tomorrow at their likely prices as not sure if Shaweel wants further and not sure if cityscape wants it quite as soft. If I was to go for anything it would probably be <b>Finjaan at 9/2</b> (with a healthy enough respect for Nasri, but he is too short at 8-1 IMO). Glad Burke has pulled out Lord Shanakill, as dont think he’d have liked the ground at all.
Any opinions for the day?
Hi Bulwark,
I would’ve thought Cityscape wanted softer ground and 7f surely too short.
One for the Champion Stakes in October maybe? lol
Im not entirely certain Black Type, the way he looked at Ascot, I thought he appeared to be going well on gd-fm but just hit the front too soon in a fast paced race and was beaten by a classy one, who probably stayed better. If he fails to go on gd-sft tomorrow, I’ll still give him a second chance at Newmarket, even though wont be backing him tomorrow. The gd-sft may make it that bit easier to step down in trip if he does handle the surface. I just personally think Finjaan ticks every box on tomorrows conditions and is better priced so he’d be the one I’d go for if I was having a bet.
Bulwark – Please Sing was 11th of 16 on Gd/Sft at Longchamp and has won once on Gd/Sft and once on Gd/Fm.
I make
Shaweel
100/30 favourite for the Greenham. Shouldn’t be a huge deal splitting him and
Finjaan
though. I think
Vocalised
is really interesting and looks a nice prospect.
I’ve already managed to lay a bit of 5 on betfair for
Cityscape
.
War Native
could be some horse I feel if he has grown up this year and will be wanting a better surface I expect. Hopefully he can improve today though and then tackle some good company later in the season.
Shaweel
for me
- Total Posts 17716
I’m quite sweet on the chances of
Mawaatheeq
in the Spring Cup, despite having to carry top weight on his reappearance. Marcus Tregoning isn’t in bad shape at the moment and I was incredibly impressed with this horse’s victory at Ascot last September. He showed a decent turn of foot to win a fair race convincingly and followed up with a commendable sixth in far better company. The opposition today is some way below what he faced at Newmarket, the step back to a mile should suit and he has plenty of class.
The Dubai Duty Free looks to contain one or two potentially smart fillies and I’m hopeful
Sariska
can prove up to the task. She won what was probably an above average maiden on her only start at two and comes here having originally been aimed at the Nell Gwyn earlier in the week (the presence of Fantasia may have swayed Michael Bell’s choice of target). Conditions would seem ideal for her and I think she’s one to follow.
The only other horses I’ll be backing today are
Bakhov
(1.30), who makes his reappearance for the red-hot Tom Dascombe, and
Bridge of Gold
(4.15), a well-related debutant for the under-rated Mikael Magnusson.
Bulwark – Please Sing was 11th of 16 on Gd/Sft at Longchamp and has won once on Gd/Sft and once on Gd/Fm.
Cant say for certain about the debut (was being lazy and didnt double check) but she would have been in lower grade and didnt need to be at the top of hergame to win, however, the Longchamp ground definitely wasnt gd-sft or anywhere near, the jockeys reported it was firm but that the top surafce was a bit looser. The racing post quoted gd-sft that morning, ignoring that the forecast rain had missed longchamp, and the just rolled with it for their going discription, looking at times and how horses moved on the ground, I’d tend to believe the jockeys and the Beeb over the Racing Post on this occasion.
Went against please sing at ascot and she ran a stinker, went with her in the cherry hinton and sure enough like clockwork she came back and won, and havent backed her since, that I can think of (unless perhaps I backed her at longchamp going off the RP guide). I’d be quite confident that she has a lot in her favour tomorrow, and would be hopefull she can place at least on these conditions, but that all depends on how ready she is and how good some of the others turn out to be. 33-1 is worth it IMO though.
- Total Posts 170
I am going tomorrow with a group of friends and must admit to being a "jump lover" in comparison to the flat.
I play cricket in the Summer so rarely even have a bet and whilst I studied the cards already – I have no idea about a lot of the races so some good advise that is much appreciated on here.
This is not a jumps/ flat argument but it is just unreal to me (in a sport I love) how I can look at the ‘main’ jumps card on a Saturday and know 80% of the runners relatively well and in the Summer months ala tomorrow, I only actually know 25% (if that) of the runners.
of course a lot of that is to do with ages of horses and longevity.
Still, I am really looking forward to tomorrow and appreciate the expert advice given. lets hope you can steer me in the way of a winner…
- Total Posts 17716
Imo, Finjaan was unlucky not to win the Dewhurst, and had he not got bumped late on, and his jockey had enough room to use his whip properly, he would be a much shorter price than the current 9/2 for today’s race, and looks a solid bet.
Soft ground wouldn’t really be a concern, and his trainer states he will pull him out if he considers the going "very poor".
Can’t see Shaweel being any sort of threat, given his stable’s recent history with horses re-acclimatising to the British weather.Agree that Mia’s Boy looks a knocking bet at 12’s. Disadvantaged in the Lincoln by having just one to race with and he idled once getting the measure of that one. If he’d had the winner to chase through, I’ve no doubt he would have finished a good second. Off the same mark and surrounded by the main pace, he has to go well.
Royal and Regal’s form looks a notch or 2 above his rivals and I expect him to win this with conditions turning in his favour.
It must be hard to acclimatise from Newmarket to Newbury.. Shaweel was among some of the runners they left in this country I believe.
So long has Finjaan has that rather below par blemish on soft ground I think it should be a concern. He may well have just improved since then and lost for other reasons and he’ll prove it inconsequential, but then I do think it’s the difference between him being a bigger price and rightly so.
Still struggling to see what Maoineach is doing up towards the head of the Guineas market and at 5/2 today has to be laid. Very unusual for Bolger to be sending horses over to Newbury this time of the year. A black type gathering exercise before the public exposure of Group 1 limitations perhaps?
It must be hard to acclimatise from Newmarket to Newbury.. Shaweel was among some of the runners they left in this country I believe.
Shaweel definitely made the trip to Dubai.
He’ll love the soft ground today
A black type gathering exercise before the public exposure of Group 1 limitations perhaps?
Thats not really Bolgers MO is it? I dont see why he’d be dying to get some black type for a filly whose only ever been campaigned in black type races and has a 66% strike rate in them.
What I do think is possible after Longchamp, is that she wants cut, and he may be sending her for the pouliches and wants to get a race into her on suitable conditions with a month to go.
Richard Hills gave Zaahid a shocking ride in the spring cup last year, i just
hope he rides him better this year,if he does i would be gutted if he doesn"t
get at least a place, Charm School is a horse that will win a big Handicap
over a mile this year too, backed them both at 9/1!- Total Posts 17716
Jamie Spencer certainly didn’t cover himself in glory on Sariska – in fact, it was an appalling effort – but Bridge Of Gold rescued what was looking like an horrendous afternoon.
As classic clues go though, not a great day.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.