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This is always a competitive race so ante post backers should only go for worthy odds.
At this stage I have opted to take a chance on 2 outsiders:
Pearl Swan has class but a lengthy gap to overcome so a small EW bet at 33s.
Olofi won this nicely before and despite a lengthy layoff due to injury, from a 1lb lower mark he could go well at 33s both with SJ offering 5 placesI’d like Bayan @ 14/1 personally. I think he’ll have a big season. Sign of a victory could be big @ 8s if he runs. Not really sure what the story is with him yet.
The 25s Purple Bay has gone but 20s still available (as low as 8s).
I was really impressed yesterday with him. He looks a lovely type who is just finding the strength his frame demands. Gets outpaced at times, but the Cheltenham hill looks made for him.
I’ve taken some 50s for the Champion Hurdle too.
I can’t see past the favourite here. Vaniteux ran third behind Vatour in the Supreme Novices and that looks strong form. He meets just about every trend requirement in a race which has been won by some good hurdlers over the years. The Supreme Novices has seen nine horses win since, including recent winner Sgt Reckless.
Sometimes chasing the "value" leaves you missing the obvious one and 5/1 was fair enough in my mind. Generally 7/2 and 3/1 now there is still a little 4/1 out there.
Sorry Joe but Purple Bay seems to be out of this now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
John Ferguson’s horses are incredibly unreliable, Joe. The Elite rather fell in his lap as the leaders crumbled too – surely he’d be badly outpaced against these well-handicapped types, let alone in the Champion.
I’m a big
Vaniteux
fan and backed him for the Supreme last year. He’s not really a two-miler and will hit his greatest heights over 2m 4f imo, but could still have too much class for them as the track plays into his hands. Sign Of A Victory going elsewhere is a big positive too.
Clondaw Warrior
has obvious claims having improved rapidly with Willie Mullins. He’s madly well-treated off 10-00 if he can translate that to hurdles and will be my bet as the more natural two miler.
I liked
Goodwood Mirage
given everything McCoy went through to ride him at Wetherby, but he hardly gets any weight from Vaniteux, who’s probably going to be the new Oscar Whisky.
Backed Olofi at 20s with Stans and five places, will love the ground and cracking record here.
J
Clondaw Warrior
has obvious claims having improved rapidly with Willie Mullins. He’s madly well-treated off 10-00 if he can translate that to hurdles and will be my bet as the more natural two miler.
Clondaw Warrior
has been the market mover this past week or so, no doubt because he won the November Handicap on the flat in Ireland (A race bizarrely run in October)
While he’s made progress on the level, his form over hurdles is much more modest with just one win and it’s more than a year since he went over the sticks.
He’s as short as 9/2 now and I think that is appalling value and based on his trainer more than a true belief he can directly translate flat improvement to the jumps.
I can’t get enthused about Olofi at all and just don’t see any reason why he’ll win this. Maybe I’m missing something but he’s not for me.
The dark horse and big improver
Exitas
is the one I’d put up but he’s being backed now so 8/1 is about the best price going. A rapid rise on the back of three wins has seen him awarded a rating of 140, which is just 7lbs behind the top-weight Vaniteux. He gets 16lbs from Vaniteux, so it is not hard to see why last Saturday’s Sandown winner is being considered well in and on the up, having been rated just 108 in July this year.
Vaniteux and Exitas for me, they’ve both got the X Factor
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think there might be a few steps missing in your logic about Clondaw Warrior there, Steve.
The horse was as awful on the flat as it was over hurdles before Mr Mullins grabbed hold of it. Clondaw Warrior started off for him rated 52 on the flat and 112 over hurdles and improved amazingly to win the November Handicap off 86.
The horse has won a maiden hurdle and been second in a handicap hurdle at the depths of his slump for his previous yard, so I see no reason why he won’t translate the improvement.
I think there might be a few steps missing in your logic about Clondaw Warrior there, Steve.
The horse was as awful on the flat as it was over hurdles before Mr Mullins grabbed hold of it. Clondaw Warrior started off for him rated 52 on the flat and 112 over hurdles and improved amazingly to win the November Handicap off 86.
The horse has won a maiden hurdle and been second in a handicap hurdle at the depths of his slump for his previous yard, so I see no reason why he won’t translate the improvement.
I think he’s short enough and the hurdles game would be very easy to predict if every horse brought their flat form to the sticks intact.
I feel he’s facing classier hurdlers here and, although getting a good bit of weight, I feel his price is based on the improved form being
guaranteed
, rather than possible.
Barry Geraghty has passed Jezki over in order to ride Vaniteux and that looks a good pointer in my mind.
Weight stops good horses though, so it will be interesting if the older horse can take advantage of the concession from the up and coming whippersnapper.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I had a nibble at Baradari at 25/1, but must admit I was skeptical about whether Clondaw Warrior would actually run. It’s likely he’s very well handicapped imo. Mullins has a knack of improving horses and this one is no different. A rise of 40 lbs on the flat this season and I think he should be seen as an improved horse rather than just improved specifically on the flat, at least until we have evidence that shows otherwise.
I can see the logic behind Vaniteux, he sets the standard. Hopefully Baradari will run a place for me.
BALTIMORE ROCK 10/1 loves this ground was very good last season can progress for trainer who does well at this meeting.
Baltimore Rock for me now Darren as well, along with the outsider Eagle Rock, who I’ll also throw a few quid at.
I’ll wait till the day for Baltimore, but if Eagle Rock makes the cut, I’ll bet him today.
I had a nibble at Baradari at 25/1, but must admit I was skeptical about whether Clondaw Warrior would actually run. It’s likely he’s very well handicapped imo. Mullins has a knack of improving horses and this one is no different. A rise of 40 lbs on the flat this season and
I think he should be seen as an improved horse rather than just improved specifically on the flat, at least until we have evidence that shows otherwise.
I can see the logic behind Vaniteux, he sets the standard. Hopefully Baradari will run a place for me.
Strange how people think differently. I was taught that the emphasis was on seeing something proven, rather than assume something and waiting for it to be disproved.
The worry I have about Clondaw Warrior is that he has never raced in a hurdle race anywhere near as competitive as the one he is going into this weekend. The maiden hurdle he won was very weak and he went off odds-on with barely any realistic opposition. The last hurdle race he ran in was a handicap for hurdlers rated 80-116 and there is more than a two stone rise in class this time around.
I would anticipate things happening a lot more quickly in The Greatwood, than in maiden and lower grade handicaps, and just wonder how slick Clondaw Warrior’s hurdling will be against higher rated opponents?
A good handicap mark alone will not necessarily be enough and I prefer a horse like Vaniteux, who has run in the furnace that is The Supreme Novices, where class and hurdling are put to the test and there is no hiding place.
Vaniteux could easily be improved himself this season, being so lightly raced, and the jockey clearly believes it is worth getting off an odds on shot to take the ride. He just seems better value than Clondaw at the relative odds.
Baradari has youth on his side and it would be a boost for Sign Of A Victory fans to see him land this or run close. However, we all saw how easily the Champion Hurdle springer dismissed the Venetia Williams runner and the rest of the field in Baradari’s latest outing and that’s a concern for me. The Williams’ horses seem to come into their own when the ground is hock deep and maybe this fellow will pop up at a price in that scenario.
Good luck Tommy and everyone else who has had a bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I had a nibble at Baradari at 25/1, but must admit I was skeptical about whether Clondaw Warrior would actually run. It’s likely he’s very well handicapped imo. Mullins has a knack of improving horses and this one is no different. A rise of 40 lbs on the flat this season and
I think he should be seen as an improved horse rather than just improved specifically on the flat, at least until we have evidence that shows otherwise.
I can see the logic behind Vaniteux, he sets the standard. Hopefully Baradari will run a place for me.
Strange how people think differently. I was taught that the emphasis was on seeing something proven, rather than assume something and waiting for it to be disproved.
The worry I have about Clondaw Warrior is that he has never raced in a hurdle race anywhere near as competitive as the one he is going into this weekend. The maiden hurdle he won was very weak and he went off odds-on with barely any realistic opposition. The last hurdle race he ran in was a handicap for hurdlers rated 80-116 and there is more than a two stone rise in class this time around.
I would anticipate things happening a lot more quickly in The Greatwood, than in maiden and lower grade handicaps, and just wonder how slick Clondaw Warrior’s hurdling will be against higher rated opponents?
I would consider the improvement he has made under Mullins on the flat as proof that he has improved as a horse. If he was still with Hanlon there’s no way he’d be racing off 92 on the level, he’s a different horse now imo.
The concerns you have about this being a far higher quality race than anything he has been in over jumps before is understandable and must be a serious consideration when having a bet. Then again, he may just appreciate a helter-skelter two mile race as he can be pretty keen.
I have looked at the card for this. And I am puzzling over the three ratings for each horse – official, Topspeed and RPR.
I know how the OR works and I assume the RPR uses a similar traditional handicapping system. It looks like the RPR is weight adjusted – making Exitas best in at the weights.
But what about the TS? Is this weight adjusted? I assume not. So Eagle Rock is best in.But maybe weight doesn’t work with TS ratings.
I suppose the bottom line is what do the TS ratings tell us about each horse’s chances in the Greatwood?
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