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A big field for this race and being fresh and has won at the course my tip is
SANCTUAIRE 16/1
I think he win this race.
Any thoughts on the race.
I’ve already backed Pateese e/w at 25’s. Think he’s well capable of landing a race like this, and hoping for a decent run for my money.
GL
Paul Flynn thinks Moon Dice is as good as he has ever sat on. Given the calibre of horse he’d have ridden for Philip Hobbs, that’s good enough for me.
Had a look at Moon Dice for the first time and he certainly looks to have a huge future ahead of him. Didn’t half jump well and travelled like a dream in the Galway.
If he turns up I’ll have a shilling or two on him thanks!!!!
Having lumped on Brian Ellison’s Marsh Wabler at Southwell the horse owes me nothing. It’s fair to say he was somewhat thrown in that day but at least we know he’s in good form if the decision is made to go to Cheltenham.
When the ground went against him at the festival it would be fair to say he was looked after but his performance at Chepstow prior to Cheltenham was first class.
His trainer is no stranger to this race Bothy having run a gallant 2nd to Mehorah last season.
Some horse you can risk betting AP but when they are ground dependant it’s not the wisest move. I did take some 25’s but he really wants some cut so I’ll be weather watching and keeping my ear to the ground before jumping in.
Marsh Warbler
Dangers: Moon Dice and The weather
Venture: That’s a very nice docket to have, Pateese is the one for me as he meets numerous ‘trends’ and looks very strong indeed.
Yeah, happy enough GDC, fingers crossed. Was on him when he won last Saturday, so he doesn’t owe me anything. Hopefully this won’t come too soon, but it looks as if both races have been the plan anyway.
Moon Dice would be a big worry, but I remain hopeful.
Considering Palawi was still in contention when falling and brining down Grandouet at Aintree 33/1 looks a lively outsider.
I find it strange A Media Luz is the all conquering Nicky Hendersons only runner. I could be wrong but she gives me the impression she barely gets 2 miles. She can travel up there like she’s going to win easily before capitulating. Good back to lay in my book.
Brampour was quite impressive at Ascot but as we seen with Restless harry yesterday early season form rarely stands up.
Third Intention will strip much fitter though and Colin Tizzrd will have sent him to Ascot with this very much in mind. I fully expect him to be right there at the finish.
Third Intention 18/1 ew Paddy Power
saver Moon Dice
This does not look that open this year. For me Pateese and Moon Dice are ahead of the field. More so than their prices suggest. Pateese ran away with what looked a competitive event at Sandown. Arguabley his best two runs have been at the Esher track. But second in the other Greatwood Hurdle at Newbury was his best performance up to then. So left handed shouldn’t bother him. Quick return to the track the only possible negative.
Moon Dice is rapidly improving and why he hasn’t got a "p" in Timeform baffles me. Mihghtily impressive in his last two races. Very encouraging to hear Imperial Call’s words from the trainer too.
I make Pateese a fair 4/1 shot and Moon Dice 6/1. Available at 5/1 and 15/2.
The only other I make value is Abergavenny. Winner of three Micky Mouse races in the summer. Has inexperience to overcome, but at around 33/1 on betfair is worth taking a chance with.
Thought I was going to back A Media Luz, but she’s been heavily backed on Saturday and suspect it’s Pricewise this morning. Went through his last race like the best horse until headstrong tendencies took their toll, weakening badly late on. Trouble is that seems just parr for the course. If, big IF she settles will be hard to beat. This is a stiff track and it’s hard to get home. May be a good ground Tote Gold Trophy will be her best chance of a big one. I need 14/1 to back her today. Stable are in magnificent form this week though and should be respected. As H rightly says could be a back to lay, but the market is getting wiser to such tactics these days.
Of the rest, Third Intention and Kumbashwar don’t have to drift that far for me to get involved. Both shaped well behind Brampour last time.
My 100% book:
Pateese 4/1, Moon Dice 6/1
, A Media Luz 12/1, Brampour 14/1, Kumbashwar 16/1, Third Intention 16/1, Via Galilie 18/1,
Abergavenny 18/1
, Jack Cool 20/1, Sactuaire 25/1, Captain Clouseau 28/1, Olofi 28/1, Ultimate 50/1, Alarian 66/1, The Betchworth Kid 66/1, Son Of Flicka 66/1, Nearby 66/1, Oldrick 80/1, Viva Colonia 80/1, Topolski 100/1, Eightybarackstreet 150/1, Palawi 150/1, Andhaar 200/1, Harry Tricker 300/1
Value Is EverythingI’m really surprised Pateese is fav for this.
When Moon Dice won the Galway hurdle he was taking on really fit horses and made them look ordinary. He looks massive at 7/1.
Pateese on the other hand had the advantage of a run on the flat before Sandown plus Twist Pistol injected such a sudden burst of pace into the race at halfway that all the jockeys bar a couple were caught napping on horses most of which were not race fit . Patese had been up there vying for the lead and went with him while others waited expecting the field to come back to them and as a result never got a blow in. Pateese easily took over from the weakening Twist Pistol with not a challenger in sight.
He won so easily at Sandown you’d think Philip Hobbs had found a new wonderhay or the handicapper just messed up but I remain suspicious about that race which I thought fell apart.
Be surprised if Moon Dice doesn’t oppose him as fav so I’ll have a bit more on him and take the 7/1
It’s Olofi for me – but i could easily have picked another 4 or 5!
Do you think backing more than one horse is cheating Wilts?
If you strongly fancy 4 or 5 then go for it! It’s easy to back one horse at Evens in a race, it’s also possible to back 4 or 5 at a combined price of Evens. If you want to?
Value Is EverythingIt’s Olofi for me – but i could easily have picked another 4 or 5!
Do you think backing more than one horse is cheating Wilts?
If you strongly fancy 4 or 5 then go for it! It’s easy to back one horse at Evens in a race, it’s also possible to back 4 or 5 at a combined price of Evens. If you want to?
I’m not a massive gambler – £30 to £40 each weekend – maybe the odd bet during the week. But overall i only bet what i can afford to lose!
Have a couple of doubles and a treble on this afternoon at Cheltenham as well. I might just have one more bet on the Greatwood though
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Can’t have Pateese at all, and Moon Dice may struggle if there’s too much give.
Sanctuaire for me, ew at a general 14/1.Just the one; Mrs Wembley.
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