- This topic has 9 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
This is arguably one of the most fascinating races of the season, thus far, both from a formbook and tactical perspective.
Less than a length seperated Thomas Chippendale, Noble Mission and Thought Worthy at Royal Ascot. The narrowest of margins seperated Noble Mission and Encke at Glorious Goodwood, while Thought Worthy beat Noble Mission at Newmarket earlier in the season, but was 6L adrift of Main Sequence in the Derby.
Try working this one out in a race that could be run at a steady pace!
Noble Mission was attempting to give Thought Worthy 5lb in the Fairway Stakes back in May, going down by a neck. Running off levels, Noble Mission beat his Newmarket conqueror by the same margin in a rough finish at Royal Ascot in June.
Frankel’s baby brother is clearly improving – as was anticipated by connections – but that was a big run from John Gosden’s colt after his Epsom exertions, particularly in a race that can so often be a graveyard for Derby runners.
Like Noble Mission, Thought Worthy can also boast a classic-winning older sibling in Lucarno who, after finishing fourth at Epsom, went on to be placed in the King Edward and won this race before St Leger glory.
Little seperates these two and both have won under contrasting conditions.
The ‘hoodless’ Noble Mission will be joined by his stablemate and Royal conqueror, Thomas Chippendale, who is clearly going the right way. He’ll find things tougher under a 3lb penalty and is yet to race on anything quicker than good, but it would be folly to dismiss him.
Mahmood Al Zarooni saddles Energizer and Encke – who is arguably open to more improvement than anything in the field. The Godolphin colt and Noble Mission pulled clear of the smart Michelangelo and German Derby third, Girolamo, at Goodwood and only lost out on the nod at the finish. Energizer looked a colt going places when landing the Tercentenary impressively. He is open to considerable improvement over this trip, but previous connections felt that soft ground suits and he’s not going to get that on the Knavesmire today.
Main Sequence is the form pick after his Derby second and unlucky fourth in the Grand Prix De Paris. Camelot went on to Irish Derby glory, while the front two at Longchamp are both smart and the third has since landed a Group 2 at Deauville.
Like the majority of this field, I think David Lanigan’s colt would prefer a stronger than anticpated gallop. He doesn’t do anything quickly, and the same applies to both Noble Mission and Thomas Chippendale on all available evidence. Encke was flying at the business end when narrowly touched off in the Gordon Stakes and he’s another who would appear to want a strongly run race. Energizer clearly possesses a bit of toe for this trip but, like Thomas Chippendale, is yet to encounter ground this quick.
Does Thought Worthy really deserve to be the outsider of the field? In a race with no obvious pace it would surprise me if this colt – bred to stay further without any reservations – was not asked to stride on for tactically aware connections. He did just that at Newmarket when beating Noble Mission on fast ground and his King Edward effort marked him down as being a tough and genuine sort after his Epsom exertions.
Conditions will not pose any problems and the track should suit. Noble Mission would be confidently selected to go very close, but he is running without a hood for the first time since his debut and that has to be a slight concern.
Thought Worthy is my selection in a race that boasts strong, improving colts whose trainers all appear in good form!
Good write up Bos, you’ve confirmed my prevailing thoughts, namely to keep my money in my pocket! Very tough race to call.
With a gun to my head I’d back TC, potentially got the most scope to improve and at 9/2 represents the best value.
Should be a good race.
Thought Worthy has form very similar to the others Bos, so on
"form"
he does not
deserve
to be as big a price. But probably doesn’t have the scope for further improvement (at least at this trip) as the others, which needs to be taken in to account and why he’s the outsider. It is true there isn’t obvious pace in the race and Thought Worthy is the most likely leader. However, as you say, he’s a stayer. Any "Positional advantage" of leading at a slow pace would (imo) not be an advantage at all. ie Unless setting a fast(ish) pace Thought Worthy is likely to be outpaced in the sprint for home
Main Sequence is undoughtedly the one to beat, unlucky not to get a run last time and might have beaten Imperial Commander with a clear run. But unfortunately I’ve missed the price to put a saver on him. Firm surface should suit him, good-firm at Epsom and American bred.
I like two as value bets.
Thomas Chippendale
at 5/1. On "form" isn’t sure to beat either Noble Mission or Thought Worthy from Ascot. However, the selection showed big improvement there and is odds-on to progress further if acting on the ground. Hasn’t run on it before, but is by Dansili who’s stock usually act on it, we’ll see. Shame Ryan Moore has been injured and Paul Hanagan takes the ride.
Noble Commission not running in a hood is a major worry for me, improvement came as the headgear was applied. He’s a lazy … and although genuine in a finish – takes some knowing; which is probably why Queally rides him instead of Thomas C.
The other I like is
Encke
at 6/1. Again, on form isn’t sure to beat Noble Mission on the Goodwood run, but it was the Godolphin horse showing the more improvement. Al Zarooni is in very good form too.
Stable companion Energiser isn’t out of it. Frankie rides, but I don’t believe that makes him the first string. Barca was on Encke last time and this is the first run for Energiser in Godolphin colours. On breeding should get this trip, but won the Tercentenary (10f Group 3) last time more through speed.
Am a little worried about the ground now for my selections, time of the first race faster than I had hoped. But not enough to change my bets.
Value Is EverythingThis is arguably one of the most fascinating races of the season, thus far, both from a formbook and tactical perspective.
Less than a length seperated Thomas Chippendale, Noble Mission and Thought Worthy at Royal Ascot. The narrowest of margins seperated Noble Mission and Encke at Glorious Goodwood, while Thought Worthy beat Noble Mission at Newmarket earlier in the season, but was 6L adrift of Main Sequence in the Derby.
Try working this one out in a race that could be run at a steady pace!
Noble Mission was attempting to give Thought Worthy 5lb in the Fairway Stakes back in May, going down by a neck. Running off levels, Noble Mission beat his Newmarket conqueror by the same margin in a rough finish at Royal Ascot in June.
Frankel’s baby brother is clearly improving – as was anticipated by connections – but that was a big run from John Gosden’s colt after his Epsom exertions, particularly in a race that can so often be a graveyard for Derby runners.
Like Noble Mission, Thought Worthy can also boast a classic-winning older sibling in Lucarno who, after finishing fourth at Epsom, went on to be placed in the King Edward and won this race before St Leger glory.
Little seperates these two and both have won under contrasting conditions.
The ‘hoodless’ Noble Mission will be joined by his stablemate and Royal conqueror, Thomas Chippendale, who is clearly going the right way. He’ll find things tougher under a 3lb penalty and is yet to race on anything quicker than good, but it would be folly to dismiss him.
Mahmood Al Zarooni saddles Energizer and Encke – who is arguably open to more improvement than anything in the field. The Godolphin colt and Noble Mission pulled clear of the smart Michelangelo and German Derby third, Girolamo, at Goodwood and only lost out on the nod at the finish. Energizer looked a colt going places when landing the Tercentenary impressively. He is open to considerable improvement over this trip, but previous connections felt that soft ground suits and he’s not going to get that on the Knavesmire today.
Main Sequence is the form pick after his Derby second and unlucky fourth in the Grand Prix De Paris. Camelot went on to Irish Derby glory, while the front two at Longchamp are both smart and the third has since landed a Group 2 at Deauville.
Like the majority of this field, I think David Lanigan’s colt would prefer a stronger than anticpated gallop. He doesn’t do anything quickly, and the same applies to both Noble Mission and Thomas Chippendale on all available evidence. Encke was flying at the business end when narrowly touched off in the Gordon Stakes and he’s another who would appear to want a strongly run race. Energizer clearly possesses a bit of toe for this trip but, like Thomas Chippendale, is yet to encounter ground this quick.
Does Thought Worthy really deserve to be the outsider of the field? In a race with no obvious pace it would surprise me if this colt – bred to stay further without any reservations – was not asked to stride on for tactically aware connections. He did just that at Newmarket when beating Noble Mission on fast ground and his King Edward effort marked him down as being a tough and genuine sort after his Epsom exertions.
Conditions will not pose any problems and the track should suit. Noble Mission would be confidently selected to go very close, but he is running without a hood for the first time since his debut and that has to be a slight concern.
Thought Worthy is my selection in a race that boasts strong, improving colts whose trainers all appear in good form!
Excellent analysis and top class ride.
Well done Bos.
Didn’t expect Energiser, Thomas Chippendale and Noble Mission to pull, even at such a slow pace. Didn’t expect them to allow Thought Worthy to have such a lead. Although only Barca and Durcan could’ve done anything about it with the others needing cover. Given a 4 length lead on the bend (surprised me with a change of gear) Thought Worthy was always going to be hard to beat from that point.
Durcan lost a second race in a row on Main Sequence, through poor jockeyship.
Encke essentially wasn’t good enough and the Gordon Stakes form with Noble Mission closely matched.
Thomas Chippendale is better than that, too free and unsuited by the run of the race.
Energiser pulled much too hard, going much slower than he’s used to. Well beaten.
Well Thought out Bos, I got it wrong.
Value Is EverythingGreat preview and selection. I thought John Francome had put the kiss of death on when he stated that he fancied Thoughtworthy to make the running and perhaps catch them out.
I was waiting on Main Sequence for a double with Dundonnell but, as usual recently, it was not to be. I thought the favourite had enough time to reel the winner in but watching him trying to quicken was so painstakingly slow a process, he looked like a merry-go-round mount.
My overall feeling is that Great Heavens remains the biggest danger to Camelot in The Leger if she gets her ground.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks, guys.
Always satisfying when it turns out just the way you thought (just wish it would happen more often)
.Connections must be kicking themselves for taking the hood off Noble Mission – he was far too lit up. Came into the straight travelling well, but his early exertions took there toll – he’s better than the bare result suggests.
Wouldn’t be in a hurry to back Thought Worthy at Donny, though. I agree that Great Heavens looks a monster rival to Camelot, while Main Sequence and the improving Encke could reach the frame given a more truly run race.
Great call Bos, well done Sir, read it perfectly.
Ginge, you been on the sherbets or has the excitment of today got to you today? ‘Imperial Commander’, ‘Noble Commissioner’?!
.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.