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This is shaping up to be an intriguing affair.
The favourite Ice Breeze is still relatively unexposed, but I wasn’t particularly impressed with how he won at Chantilly and he represents scant value at 2/1.
The ultra tough Permian is a late supplementary but I fear he’s had a tough season and I just wonder does he need a break. He’s a general 7/4 shot but Bet365 are sticking their neck out at 5/2.
Orderofthegarter is a horse who has quite a few fans on this forum, but he’s been an expensive horse to follow. This is his first go at 12f, and there’s always the possibility he’s only in there to set a gallop for Venice Beach. However its worth remembering he was 8/1 for this race earlier today, the 16/1 on offer now is only based on the assumption that he’ll be pacemaker. He could outrun both those odds and that duty.
Venice Beach could easily be good enough to win this, his awful run at Epsom can be overlooked for many reasons. His win over Wings of Eagles is probably the standout piece of form here, however I fancy two others for this and both at bigger prices.
Mac Mahon is an Italian trained, Italian bred, Japanese owned, and Irish named colt, a strange combination if I’ve ever seen one. He is unbeaten from 4 starts, and last time out he demolished the Gr.2 Derby Italiano field by 5 lengths. He looks a really smart colt and whilst its hard to evaluate the form of these Italian races, connections must believe he was worth the supplementary fee for this. Bet365 have really a taken a stance on this fella, pricing him up at 8/1 (perhaps why they’re sticking their necks out on Permian), whilst other firms go 20/1. He has Christian Demuro on board which is always a plus.
As a saver I’ve gone for:
Parabellum was a €2.6 million yearling by Dubawi out of a Montjeu mare, herself a Gr.3 winner in France, and he represents powerful connections in Andre Fabre and Godolphin. He was very green in his first two starts, and a shade unlucky going down by a shoulder each time. However last time out, over course and distance, he travelled ultra professionally and when asked to go and win he powered away to score by 8 lengths. Nothing he beat looks even up to Group 2 level, but the way he did it was jaw dropping. A maiden winner going straight into Gr. 1 level is a tough ask, but in Fabre we trust. 8/1.
This is shaping up to be an intriguing affair.
The favourite Ice Breeze is still relatively unexposed, but I wasn’t particularly impressed with how he won at Chantilly and he represents scant value at 2/1.
The ultra tough Permian is a late supplementary but I fear he’s had a tough season and I just wonder does he need a break. He’s a general 7/4 shot but Bet365 are sticking their neck out at 5/2.
Orderofthegarter is a horse who has quite a few fans on this forum, but he’s been an expensive horse to follow. This is his first go at 12f, and there’s always the possibility he’s only in there to set a gallop for Venice Beach. However its worth remembering he was 8/1 for this race earlier today, the 16/1 on offer now is only based on the assumption that he’ll be pacemaker. He could outrun both those odds and that duty.
Venice Beach could easily be good enough to win this, his awful run at Epsom can be overlooked for many reasons. His win over Wings of Eagles is probably the standout piece of form here, however I fancy two others for this and both at bigger prices.
Mac Mahon is an Italian trained, Italian bred, Japanese owned, and Irish named colt, a strange combination if I’ve ever seen one. He is unbeaten from 4 starts, and last time out he demolished the Gr.2 Derby Italiano field by 5 lengths. He looks a really smart colt and whilst its hard to evaluate the form of these Italian races, connections must believe he was worth the supplementary fee for this. Bet365 have really a taken a stance on this fella, pricing him up at 8/1 (perhaps why they’re sticking their necks out on Permian), whilst other firms go 20/1. He has Christian Demuro on board which is always a plus.
As a saver I’ve gone for:
Parabellum was a €2.6 million yearling by Dubawi out of a Montjeu mare, herself a Gr.3 winner in France, and he represents powerful connections in Andre Fabre and Godolphin. He was very green in his first two starts, and a shade unlucky going down by a shoulder each time. However last time out, over course and distance, he travelled ultra professionally and when asked to go and win he powered away to score by 8 lengths. Nothing he beat looks even up to Group 2 level, but the way he did it was jaw dropping. A maiden winner going straight into Gr. 1 level is a tough ask, but in Fabre we trust. 8/1.
I can’t be having a maiden winner for a group 1 but you make a very compelling argument for the Italian horse.
If I remember, I might play but i don’t really bet on the French racing. I just tend to keep a brief idea of what is happening for Royal Ascot and the Arc.
Backed Orderofthegarter @ 10’s. I think stepping up in trip will suit him. Ryan booked to ride.
Backed Orderofthegarter @ 10’s. I think stepping up in trip will suit him. Ryan booked to ride.
That’s really shaken up the betting. Anybody who took the 16/1 last night will be delighted the bookies assumed he was only in there to do a job. Venice Beach out from 6s to 10s.
Both Mac Mahon and Parabellum have been backed.
I did the Italian horse in the Ante Post Comp Voleur for similar reasons to what you put up
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I backed Recoletos ante-post for this. I felt sure they would supplement him for the race.
I felt from some time back that horses like Douglas MacArthur, Capri, Waldgeist etc would not run and that has proved correct, making it doubly galling that my pick won’t be in the race. I would make him hot fav in this company.
With Recoletos out, Ice Breeze looks a bad favourite here. He needs to improve a lot from his last start. It was a group 2 in name only, as it was a weak renewal and Ice Breeze only has a 105 Racing Post rating. If we look at Recoletos, he is rated 114 on the same scale and his Greffulhe form with Waldgeist and his good third in the French Derby are way superior in my opinion. I am puzzled that he wasn’t supplemented.
I want to take Ice Breeze on but it’s not easy to find a sound alternative. Permian clearly holds a good chance but isn’t a great price at 5/2 after a tough season already. Johnston may be asking a bit much and the horse will surely flatten out one of these times.
Orderofthegarter is interesting but I am not sure about the trip for him. He was earlier considered to be an Irish 2000 Guineas horse and although he ran well enough behind Benbatl last time, that had looked part of the “Much of a muchness” Derby form to me personally and it is another source of annoyance to me that Orderofthegarter was behind Recoletos last time, yet the latter horse isn’t at the party. At the odds I would rather back the O’Brien horse than the favourite here, but the trip does worry me. A very slowly run race may be what the Ballydoyle horse needs.
Parabellum is a horse I watched winning last time and some judges were taken by his easy win. He earned “Rising Star” status on Thoroughbred Daily News but the Racing Post did not raise his rating much at all from his previous race. An expensive loser on his first two starts, you are well behind still if following Parabellum. I think his form stinks the place out myself and he has major ground to make up on the best here. At the same odds of 7/1 that Orderofthegarter is, I would easily prefer the Irish contender but I think both horses are tight at the current odds.
Italian form is hard for me to assess and there is usually a reason why their Derby is only Group 2 status. On the bright side Mac Mahon is unbeaten but being cautiously minded you have to feel that only his latest run gives him some hope here. He fairly thumped his field last time, when the true Derby distance and the soft going combined to let him scoot away from his field. Most years you would probably take that with a pinch of salt going up against good British and French horses but there is reason to believe that this year’s mob may lack the touch of class of previous seasons.
Conclusion:-
The favourite looks fragile and lacks the form required in my opinion. Parabellum would be my other lay, with his form well behind the leading lights here.
Orderofthegarter is rejected because of the trip but he’s got to be respected for the powerful Coolmore outfit.
Permian could easily go out there and win this, Derby effort aside he has links with Cracksman and the Irish Derby and his progress this season has been strong. At better odds he would appeal but he’s has such a busy season that he will need an iron constitution to score here.
At the odds, I am siding with Mac Mahon, in the belief that he may be the strongest stayer in the field and he may run them all into the ground. Obviously soft ground would strengthen that notion but unbeaten and at 12/1, he has simply got to be the potential value in a very open looking renewal with no superstar on show.
The Racing Post have Mac Mahon 2 lbs behind their top rated pair Permian and Orderofthegarter and they report the current going to be “Soft”
I’ll have Mac Mahon at 12/1 as the value here any day. So it’s Viva Italia from this Juventus supporter.
Mac Mahon 12/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Huge differences in the market between Paddy Power and William Hill for this race.
William Hill are 5/1 on Ice Breeze, while Paddy Power are 15/8.
William Hill go 7/2 on Orderofthegarter, whereas Paddy Power offer 7/1
William Hill are 5/1 about Mac Mahon and he’s available at 12/1 with Paddy Power.
I must say, the Hill’s prices echo my own feelings on the race but we will see how it pans out tomorrow. I must admit I almost had a Connery when I saw how short Ice Breeze was initially.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The whole Ice Breeze, Shakeel, Falcon Wings form looks pretty stuck together and perhaps a little below what it takes to win a Group 1. I’ve taken the 10/1 on Venice Beech and 12/1 on Mac Mahon. The case for the latter has already been made on this thread and my reasoning is the same. Venice Beech did defeat none other than the Derby winner at Chester and has been given plenty of time since Epsom where he raced too prominently and probably didn’t enjoy the experience. A brother to Danedream who could follow in her footsteps and win a French Group 1 over 12 furlongs.
Paddy Power were way out of line with their odds on this race.
They have eventually come into line but they were way off the mark with several horses here.
I feel bookmakers are pretty crap at getting odds compiled for the French Racing in general.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I couldn’t agree more about the views given on Mac Mahon for this but I just have that niggling doubt about Italian form. He won as he liked though and the 5 length margin was flattering his opponents as he was eased down. I should have taken a plunge when I saw 8/1 but I wasn’t sure if by some miracle the going description changed. Currently still soft according to the RP so I’ll have a bit of 11/2.
Good luck
Virtually impossible to come off the pace there, what a gutsy horse this is.
Yet another boost for the Derby!! 1st and 3rd there.
Venice Beech ran a strange race – looks like O’Brien’s Voltigeur/St Leger horse.
Backed Venice Beach for the Leger @ 25’s after that, was full of running at the end.
Virtually impossible to come off the pace there, what a gutsy horse this is.
Yet another boost for the Derby!! 1st and 3rd there.
Venice Beech ran a strange race – looks like O’Brien’s Voltigeur/St Leger horse.
Charles, Permian did not win the race.
Even if he had, it wasn’t a boost to the Derby. We all know that the Derby form is much of a muchness and again, today, we see tiny margin’s between 1st and 2nd. Winner today, Shakeel was described by you as part of “Stuck together form that looks short of Group 1 class”
Suddenly it’s a boost to the Derby form. No way Jose. It can’t be both.
Permian has run a great race and he’s as tough as nails but it’s another mediocre race in a non-stellar year as far as I am concerned.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wow, can’t believe Permian didn’t win Steve. So sure of that result I changed channels.
I did say that the horses form looked stuck together with the Ice Breeze and Falcon Wings and to be fair they’ve finished a length apart from each other. The winner has been improving from race to race though (a length behind Ice Breeze 2 starts ago and then just defeated a head last time) and I don’t think I factored that in.
That doesn’t mean to say Permian isn’t a tough horse, and even if it wasn’t the greatest renewal of The Derby, those who ran in it are still running very well. Certainly the form’s being held up better than in Camelot’s year or Workforce’s.
Wow, can’t believe Permian didn’t win Steve. So sure of that result I changed channels.
That doesn’t mean to say Permian isn’t a tough horse, and even if it wasn’t the greatest renewal of The Derby, those who ran in it are still running very well. Certainly the form’s being held up better than in Camelot’s year or Workforce’s.
I initially thought Permian had held on by a hair and he has done his trainer credit. His worst run this year was in the Derby, where I had backed him as value.
I am happy with Venice Beach for the Leger at 50/1, some of those ahead of him in the betting for that race are nonsense value of the highest order. Bookies were clueless pricing this race up and don’t have a scooby on the Leger either. Loaded with no hopers at stupid odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really hope Venice Beach wins the Leger for you Steve, you did very well to get 50/1. I’d love them to keep him in training next year as I feel he could shape up into a decent ‘cup’ horse.
Hard to believe Venice Beach was 28/1 for this race. A Chester Vase winner, who beat the Epsom Derby winner that day, is 28/1 and a sappy maiden winner of a stinking race, Parabellum, goes off less that 4/1.
Thoroughbred Daily News had Parabellum as a “Rising Star”, you have to wonder if some of the people writing in the racing press have an effing clue what they are talking about.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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