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Gone back to Chrome, and I’m a kitten, which I’m supposed to be. Maybe Cormack was playing a joke on me????????
When I was Willie Mullins, there was an advert for Horse Racing Ireland at the top of the screen, so maybe that had something to do with it.
halfwaytoheaven,
You know what I mean, when I say 30 of the same fences! Im not saying its 30 straight-forward fences, but for an intelligant nutcase like Garde Champetre, you need more variety. I think his record over regulation fences reinforces my point, and his incredible record over Cross-Country. It keeps him interested. Dont get me wrong, if he took to Aintree, as crazy as this sounds, its actually very hard to see beyond him! He jumps, he stays, he has that undoubted touch of class, and would more than likely be attractively handicapped. But that if, is a HUGE IF!! Its been a combination of Nina, Enda and the unique Cross-Country courses, that have galvinised this horse, and kept him interested. But lets not forget, Nina was on board when he just didnt want to know at Fairyhouse! She is one of the best, but if Garde Champetre doesnt want to do something, then he wont, regardless of who is on-board!!!!
This will be my third year of backing Black Apalachi (yup i had him at 66/1 in ’08 too
) and i am still confident he will win it. He will take a hammering from the handicapper for winning the Bobbyjo chase last year, but there are so many other possible entries who if entered will make his life alot easier, so the weight isn’t too much of a factor… neither is the going either. Just a matter of getting round.I really like Keenans Future. I pointed him out in the Becher Chase thread back in november when he had pretty big odds and afterwards he was backed down considerably. He’s ran well in a couple of 3,6’s, so i would imagine he would stay and i wouldn’t think he would have too much weight on his back…?
Preists Leap will be another pick of mine. I had him last year at 150/1 and i think had he not injured himself coming to the second last he would have been in the frame, heck he might have won it!
I really hope they run Silver Birch again. He’s a smashing horse and he was running like a treat before coming down last year. The way he ran in some of those Cross Country chases also lead me to believe he could make the frame again, provided the pace isn’t too fierce.
Ollie Magern deserves another crack. It was a shame he came down so early last year, but it he was ran again this year he should give us something to think about.
I did consider Garde Champetre, but i’m just not convinced he will be entered.
Big Fella Thanks caught my eye last year. I remember taking a note to myself a couple of weeks after the race that he could be a threat this year.
There is a pretty simple reason why Mon Mome finished so far away in 2008. Watch Bechers Brook second time round. Butlers Cabin landed right infront of him and stops him dead in his tracks. Mon Mome was right there in the leading 5/6 before that. The same thing nearly happened again last year.
Knowhere i still think could shock everyone. I know he was pulled up last year, but he has hampered 3/4 times throughout that race and i think it’d be unfair to say he doesn’t have a prayer.
Backed BFT and BA after last years race too. No great insight there though but if Ruby takes the ride hes got every chance if he carries less than say 11st 2. Black Apalaches best chance has surely past but that being said if he gets to the front in that rhythmical jumping pattern again who knows.
Call me whimsical but Irish raptor is still a horse I fancy at 80’s.
Black Apalaches best chance has surely past but that being said if he gets to the front in that rhythmical jumping pattern again who knows.
Call me whimsical but Irish raptor is still a horse I fancy at 80’s.
I disagree. Black Apalachi reminds me of Brave Highlander and Amberleigh House. A horse who just comes to life around Aintree. I still maintain that Brave Highlander would have won in 98 and 01 had luck not gone against the poor old lad. He was 13 on 01 and was still looking like a winner before getting took out by those damn loose horses!
And again with Amberleigh House; proof that a horse in this day and age can still win at the big age of 12. I think Black Apalachi could still have another 2/3 Nationals in him.
If you asked me a couple of months ago; i’d say Irish Raptor wouldn’t have a prayer, no way would he stay! But then i started to think… with the first lap usually being just hunting round; the race is almost just a 2,5 race, only they jump 13 fences beforehand and we know what Irish Raptor can do at 2,5 and over those fences, so i’ve had a change of heart over his National chances… 80’s are very good value
If you asked me a couple of months ago; i’d say Irish Raptor wouldn’t have a prayer, no way would he stay! But then i started to think… with the first lap usually being just hunting round; the race is almost just a 2,5 race, only they jump 13 fences beforehand and we know what Irish Raptor can do at 2,5 and over those fences, so i’ve had a change of heart over his National chances… 80’s are very good value
To be fair to Irish Raptor he’s already shown winning form over 3m3f at Cheltenham but the above argument (always containing the words "hunting round") is one that used to be trotted out regularly in the build-up to the National when talking up the chance of a two-and-a-half miler in the race. It’s been heard much less regularly in recent years largely because it’s very hard to think of any such horse actually making an impact on the day. Irish Raptor is an unlikely stayer on the evidence of his runs over long distances.
Of course saying that; Irish Invader had never been over 2m 1 before going to Aintree last year and he had every chance coming onto the racecourse propper second time round.
I lumped on Irish Invader at 250-1 when the weights came out last year, in the hope that he’d be another Papillon, a good jumper who could compete at 2 miles, but who might stay much further, but he went out like a light at the 2nd last.
He won’t be burdened by my cash this year, but Niche Market and Dream Alliance will suffer that penalty.
They both look like they have a touch of class, the former needing good ground, but the latter coping with soft.Good choices imo and certainly two that will be included in my ever growing list of ante post bets. Interesting to see what weight they get.
My tip is State Of Play.Hope he gets better any news on him.
Not seen or heard hide nor hair of him. What concerns me with him is that he appears a much better horse with sizeable gaps between his races, and we’re what, only 11 or 12 weeks away from the big race now?
Unless he turns out inside the next fortnight or so, I think any prep race he takes is going to come too close to the main event for comfort. The obverse would be to let make his seasonal bow in the big one itself, but few are the National horses that pull that off that feat successfully.
A shame, as he remains of definite interest to me otherwise. But for leaving his mark on either the 20th or 21st, I think it was, I’m sure he’d have finished closer still last year.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
BTW what drew me into posting in this thread was the hilariously surreal image of a kitten apparently saying: ‘When I was Willie Mullins…’
As I worked my way through the thread my assessment of Gerald gradually changed from pitiful, deluded self-harmer to a truly heroic figure attempting something genuinely ground-breaking. I don’t have the balls to try it myself but I wish you luck with this year’s enterprise.
I laugh every time I see that! He’ll hate me for saying it but he lights up my rather mundane life, does G. As for State of Play, I thought he had run [ran?] this season albeit badly..or perhaps he was due to run and didn’t? I’d have to add him to my list, prep run or no prep run; jockey was devastated last year, wasn’t he..was sure they were going to win [well, until he clouted a few…]Oh, thank goodness, I have still got a memory..he was pulled up in the Hennessey, and thats when I crossed him off my list; no sure of the reason..he was tailed off when he pulled up.
Great to see old War Of Attrition back in the winners enclosure down at Gowran. Mouse will have him primed for Aintree.
Gee, it was so nondescript that no one remembers that State Of Play ran in the Hennessy. After that, Williams said that he wished he had gone straight to the National(!), and that is what he’d be doing now. ( Wasn’t the horse slightly injured or ill? )
Oscar must have seen my Portfolio thread, cos I’m not sure I’ve revealed much in this thread.
I’m doing a bit of trends work on Betdaq, but ain’t got into the meat of it yet. (Trends work is mostly independent of any bets I have.)
I’ll post current portfolio. but it’ll take a few minutes.
) and i am still confident he will win it. He will take a hammering from the handicapper for winning the Bobbyjo chase last year, but there are so many other possible entries who if entered will make his life alot easier, so the weight isn’t too much of a factor… neither is the going either. Just a matter of getting round.
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