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Yeah, a 1200 post thread elsewhere . . .
To be honest, I’ve decided to become more of a disciple of trends, as part of my education as a punter. Plenty to get stuck into this week, with the Craven and Greenham meetings. Already know I need a highish draw for the Spring Cup next Saturday . . .
lightweight reader!!!
crikey good luck on the flat, fella, you’re a patient and dedicated researcher, you’ll need plenty of staying power for sure!
My last bet for the GN was made at 2.30 this afternoon when my wife phoned from somewhere near chepstow where she’d gone to see our niece show jumping on her pony.
"Can you place a fiver on Don’t Push It with one of your bookies for me?"
VC Bet online at 22s – couldn’t resist a fiver of my own money as well – i mean, how does a regular horse gambler (albeit small stakes) stomach the wife coming home at 6 in the eve on GN day having won and me not?!
Thanks AP – a true sporting great! How the hell didn’t he even make the final 10 for BBC sports personality? And where are his knockers now, who say he cannot win the big races, only loads of races on the ‘smaller’ tracks?
2010 – Champion Hurdle, the Ryanair, now the Grand National – what a man!
- Total Posts 17716
The big weights only done well because the ground was on the quick side.
Yes good ground undoubtedly helped, but soft ground nationals will be rare on that course, an example of why having just been and gone!
Would never have backed the winner even with the gamble, he didn’t seem to be a National horse to me and with that he was probably the best National winner for a long time with all the stats against him, but none the less, the scenes afterwards I think everyone would have enjoyed that, heartwarming scenes, and bar England winning the World Cup and Westwood achieving some Majors you cant look past McCoy for Sports Personality, people wanted it last year but he didnt deserve it for me, not one big race to his name but this year he has with the Champion Hurdle and now the National and the Ryanair along with a great 2nd in the Gold Cup and the Champion Chase, he has been thereabouts in every big race.
Would never have backed the winner even with the gamble, he didn’t seem to be a National horse to me and with that he was probably the best National winner for a long time with all the stats against him, but none the less, the scenes afterwards I think everyone would have enjoyed that, heartwarming scenes, and bar England winning the World Cup and Westwood achieving some Majors you cant look past McCoy for Sports Personality, people wanted it last year but he didnt deserve it for me, not one big race to his name but this year he has with the Champion Hurdle and now the National and the Ryanair along with a great 2nd in the Gold Cup and the Champion Chase, he has been thereabouts in every big race.
I indeed said to my mate that the gamble on dont push it was crazy….and i quote "itl be lucky to last a curcuit"……thats what i call foresight by me…not
Even though i had the 2nd and 3rd….i couldnt help but sort of will AP on going to the elbow.
Was surreal.
The downside today was the farcical scenes with King John’s Castle, someone should be sevrely reprimanded for that, he was kicking and bucking and clearly had no intentions of racing, the tape was going up some smart arse pulled him over to the tape where he simply refused to be involved, it was clear he had no intention of racing today and should have been withdrawn.
The big weights only done well because the ground was on the quick side.
Correction the big weights did well (and the trend collapsed today) because the handicap is more compact that it used to be.
More horses now carry over 11st so there is a higher percentage that these horses will be in with a chance at the business end
I’ve only been online for the last 18 months or so. One of the first things that I stumbled upon about this race that surprised me was that it is now the past 15 winners of the GN that have had at least two runs in the Old Year (albeit there is a Point-to-Point in Silver Birch’s brace). Being aware that both Royal Athlete and Miinnehoma hadn’t run until the New Year, and that there were so many horses having a curtailed campaign aimed at the National, I had my doubts that this would be upheld this year, but it just about was.
Old Year // New Year
423 // P Don’t Push It
218 // 278 Mon Mome
0P2 // 1 Comply Or Die
38 // 242 Silver Birch
84B // 443 Numbersixvalverde
9240 // 61 Hedgehunter
342 // P5 Amberleigh House
23P6313 // 64 Monty’s Pass
7533 // 67 Bindaree
1455 // 2F Red Marauder
87 // 5493 Papillon
580 // 541 Bobbyjo
551 // 65 Earth Summit
231 // 112 Lord Gyllene
F22 // F12 Rough Quest
// 3625 Royal Athlete
// 17 MiinnehomaI only found out from Big Buck’s in the past fortnight or so that there is a trend for the GN winner to have been placed in at least one of its last three races. Extending that, if you look, you will see that with the exceptions being Papillon and Bobbyjo, 13 of the past 15 winners had placed in the Old Year. So I would maintain that if one sees a horse performance that one likes, once the shooting season begins with the Ffos Las race and the Kerry National, one likes the price, and one is fairly sure it will be aimed at the National, then one might as well bag it away in one’s portfolio.
So what did we learn from this year’s race?
The seven year olds failed to make an impact once again.
Old Vic had his second winner of the race (and also the runner up).
Presenting and Accordion had yet more failures over 4m+ (albeit Character Building expended so much energy trying to reach the leaders having been positioned too far out the back that he had to conk out).
The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th have been chasing for at least three seasons.
Mildmay form continues to be as equally as important as National course form.
I’m sure there will be more as the dust continues to settle.
30 Mar 2010, 22:23
by Fryern on 30 Mar 2010, 22:23
AP said on C4 TV that he did not need to decide until 2 days before the race and he had a choice of 4, if that helps.If you want to bet on him Skybet go 14-1 for him to win.
http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoE … seracing_2
Now that looks a fair bet to me as whatever he rides won’t be 14-1 imo.
I for one would love to see him win, he has given me so much pleasure.
That was worth waiting for.
I did have a little at 20-1 with Sportingbet. The going turned against Dream Alliance but it ran ok. Thanks for the Stem Cell jokes my mate is back home (yesterday) and hopefully now cancer free. Has a load of metal in his spine but able to walk – just. He’s a fighter, loves his golf, and bxxxx me has money at long odds on the first two. He should pick up tonight.
btw Don’t believe the bookies sob stories on the GN there were 40 runners and they only paid out on 4 or 5 which is why I only had two small bets!
Well done AP JJ and JP and does anyone think Maljimar would have gone close but for falling? Or is that my pocket talking?
had a small punt on Snowy Morning, good that it got round ok, but thought he had it a bit far back, should of kept it up with McCoy and others etc.
raymo, I’m talking through my pocket as well, but thought Maljimar was going very well. I think it might have been interesting. However, I’m pretty certain that the best horse won, and I think it would have been a repeat of Cheltenham last year, a brave performance, only to be outfought by AP in the JP colours, as happened with Wichita Lineman. He’s a difficult horse to predict Maljimar, but I still think he’ll be of interest next year.
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