Grand National 2010

[raymo61]

Sorry to be a cynic but I reckon the Wylie’s have looked after Silver Birch’s connections regarding the entry fees but like I said I am a cynic!!

[Wilts]

My main concern is not backing Big Fella Thanks – i’ve followed Nicholls/Walsh all winter, esp. on a saturday. But i just don’t fancy BFT – will i regret come 4.30 tomorrow afternoon?

[Anonymous]

So, Royal Rosa sneaks in – the trainer was very keen on ensuring he got in – i’m on at 150s from a couple of weeks ago – guess it’s got no hope, but i detect from the last few weeks’ posts on here we’re all looking for the next ‘Mon Mome’!

Seems like the money has come for The Package this afternoon – will beat the ‘age’ part of the National trends if it wins.

I think the National is the only realistic option of getting back some of the £340,000 spent on Royal Rosa.

Wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a big race

[Gingertipster]

GRAND NATIONAL Guide

(including stable form (figure out of 10), jockey and my 100% book)

Madison Du Berlais

(158) Well handicapped on last season’s form, disappointed this term. Flattered 2nd when others faltered after chasing winner in King George. Flat track should suit. Possibly best able to dominate from the front which is unlikely here. Acts on soft and good going. Cheek pieces (cp). Stable form 8/10. T Scudamore

Mon Mome

(155) Proved his fitness, back to his best when 3rd in Gold Cup; flattered by staying on past those who chased the top horses. Rise of just 7 lbs for winning by 12 lengths in last year’s National looks lenient (well handicapped). Given a real chance of becoming first since Red Rum to win two Nationals. Won’t be 100/1 this time! Possibly best on good / good-soft. 5/10 A Coleman

Vic Venturi

(154) Irish. Stayed 3m2f to win slowly run Becher Chase in November, raised 6lbs for that and form has not worked out well. Good winner of Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Not as certain to be as effective over this trip as his stable companion Black Appalachi. Disappointed in two Irish Grand Nationals at 3m5f, though too soon to say he definitely doesn’t stay. Best winning form on soft, but excellent 2nd at the 08 Punchestown Festival (at the time his best performance) suggests equally effective on good. (cp) 5/10 ?

Black Apalachi

(154) Irish trained. Going well at head of affairs last year, jumped well on the first circuit, not so well the few before falling second Bechers Brook (now only on 1lb higher mark). Also won 08 Becher Chase. Encouraging 2nd in Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) latest start, staying on after being outpaced. Beaten 8 lengths but now 5lbs better off with victor and stable mate Vic Venturi. Effective on good and soft. (cp) 5/10 D O’Regan

Joe Lively

(154) Not jumped as well or same enthusiasm since injury. Respectable effort when 3rd to Taranis penultimate start, poor 14th in William Hill Chase since, unable to maintain customary prominent position. Probably acted on any going prior to a tendon injury. 7/10 J Tizzard

Don’t Push It

(153) Pulled up last time in Pertemps Hurdle, possibly not soft enough for him. Winner over Aintree’s Mildmay fences but can make mistakes. Proven at up to 3m3f. 9/10 AP McCoy

Comply Or Die

(153) Winner of this in 08. Most horses are on the downgrade at 11 years old, but did run well for a long way at Cheltenham. Beaten by only Mon Mome last year. Is now just 8lbs better off for 12 lengths. Slackening of pace after two front runners fell at second Becher’s probably did not help. Now 1lb lower mark than 09, 14lbs higher than in 08. Possibly best on good / good-soft going. Blinkered (b). 8/10 T Murphy

Tricky Trickster

(152) Won 4m NH Chase last season (trained by Twiston-Davis). Now with Paul Nicholls; improved form to just get up and win Aon Chase. Given plenty to do and making up a lot of ground to beat Niche Market (who is now 3lbs better off). Very disappointing run in Gold Cup. Only 3 weeks to recover from whatever ailed him that day. Good jumper. Acts on heavy and good ground. 6/10 B Geraghty

Niche Market

(152) No experience of National fences but looks an ideal Aintree type, stays and jumps supremely well. Only 9th last time in William Hill Chase, weakening late. Could’ve done without being upped 4lbs for close second in Aon. Possibly more improvement to come back over further. Irish National winner last try at 3m5f+. Races prominently, best on good / good-soft. Jockey unable to claim his apprentice allowance in this race. 5/10 H Skelton

Made In Taipan

(152) Irish. Ran well last time out at Navan, but last of 7 only start at as far as 3m. Highly unlikely to stay. Raced with give in the ground. 6/10 N Madden

Dream Alliance

(151) Raised 9lbs for Welsh National win. Form worked out well, but jumping problems resurfaced next time. Seems to lack confidence in his jumping once making a mistake. Best chase form on a soft surface and acts well on heavy. (cp) 8/10 T O’Brien

Cloudy Lane

(151) Trained by Grand National legend “Ginger” McCain’s son. Not at best any start this term, only 4th in Grimthorpe Chase (3¼m) last time off this mark. Dropped 7lbs since last year when unseated at The Chair. Joint favourite off only 141 when below form 6th in 08. Acts on heavy and good ground. 8/10 J Maguire

Nozic

(150) 9th of 10 finishers in Welsh National. Weakening late, which suggests he’s an unlikely stayer. Did not seem to take to these fences when only 12th of 17 finishers in Topham last year. Best form on soft ground and acts on heavy. Tongue tie (t). 6/10 L Treadwell

My Will

(150) Dropped 2lbs since last year. Looked a handicap snip that day and although 3rd was a little disappointing. Needs a return to form; that Aintree run preceded by a good 5th in Gold Cup last term, below form 7th at Cheltenham this time. Acts on any going. 6/10 N Scholfield

Pablo du Charmil

(150) Ex-2miler. Proved he gets 3m well enough when 4th at Uttoxeter in May, but unlikely to stay 4½m. Fell last time which is always a worry. Not run for a while but good record fresh. Acts on any going. 8/10 D Cook

Ballyholland

(148) Irish. Won Perth Gold Cup (3m) last season by 11 lengths and Galway Plate (2¾m) by 8 in the summer. Both on a sound surface. Below form last time on very soft. Speed he shows means it is difficult to see him staying 4½m. 7/10 AJ McNamara

Backstage

(148) Irish. Improved form over the last year has come on a sound surface. Upped 11lbs for 10 length win at Ffos Las, jumping well. Below form on softer going, over inadequate 2½m twice since (bit disappointing latest run on heavy). Yet to race over more than 3m1½f but races as if will stay further. 20/1, only 8th in 09 Fox Hunter Chase over these fences. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this in 07 with Silver Birch. 4/10 D Condon

Beat The Boys

(148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface. 4/10 B Hughes

Preists Leap

(148) Irish. Dual Thyestes chase winner. Dropped 5lbs since only 14th of 17 finishers last year, faded badly from prominent position 2 out. No form this term and possibly lost his confidence jumping. Probably suited by plenty of give underfoot. (b) 4/10 P Enright

Snowy Morning

(147) Well handicapped, down 9lbs since 9th in last year’s race, yet not at best all last season. Often makes mistakes; good round of jumping (now on only 2lbs higher mark) when close 3rd to Comply Or Die in 08. Finished with flourish when 3rd over inadequate 2m1f last start, looked out of it two out. Shows signs of temperament but done nothing wrong at Aintree. Plenty of winning form on very soft, but best performances (placed efforts) have come on good / good-soft. 5/10 D Casey

Can’t Buy Time

(147) Not the speed for 2½m on sound surface last time. Won 2m5f on soft at Cheltenham, idling on run-in. Appeared not to stay 4m when 4th in 09 NH Chase behind Tricky Trickster; going best of all two out. Fell in Grand National last year. Equally effective on soft and good ground, although stamina will be at a premium the softer it gets. 9/10 R McLernon

Big Fella Thanks

(146) Best handicapped horse in this year’s race. Improved to win Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup (2½m). Showed speed, led on the bridle before idling; much more in hand than distances suggest. “Unseated rider” penultimate start, but more stumbled than unseated. Jumped well in the main when 6th, good run for a novice in last year’s National, now off a 3lb lower mark. Not 100% certain to stay. Reduction of pace after second Bechers meant less emphasis on stamina than usual. Certainly bred to stay. Acts on a soft and firm surface. 6/10 R Walsh

State Of Play

(145) Winner of 2006 Hennessey (same mark here) and pulled up in this season’s race in November on first run since 4th in last year’s National. Small horse, made a few mistakes there and now off 5lbs lower mark. Good record fresh, so long absence not such a worry. Thought by connections better away from very soft ground. Won Charlie Hall on a firm surface, Hennessey on soft. 3/10 P Moloney

Character Building

(145) Always been a character. Looked unenthusiastic, 12th in William Hill Chase. Idles badly and rider has to put his head in front close to the line. Goes well for tender handling. Won 09 Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham Festival. Does not have the expected strike rate of one of his ability. Stays and jumps well. Been bought by the Thomson’s (Chieveley Park Stud) who bought Party Politics shortly before his victory. Equally effective on good or heavy. 4/10 Miss N Carberry

Ellerslie George

(144) Has won left-handed, but can jump right and improved to win Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, making all. Form worked out well; but ran disappointingly since, including last of 7 latest run at Newbury, taken on for the lead. Made a mistake at the first on two tries over National fences. Front runner. Probably acts on any going. (cp for first time). 7/10 C Williams

Erics Charm

(143) 12 year old who’s on a hat-trick. Proved he can win left-handed under McCoy at Newbury, form beginning to work out. Jumps well when racing prominently, less well when behind horses. Genuine and acts on any going. 4/10 W Hutchinson

King John’s Castle

(143) 2nd to Comply Or Die in 08. 2lbs higher now but is 11 years old. Injured since and difficult to know just how much ability he retains. Given plenty to do over hurdles recently. National 2nd on good, also acts on very soft. 3/10 Paul Carberry

Conna Castle

(143) Poor strike rate and possibly best right-handed. Does not look the ideal type for the Grand National. Unseated latest start (2¼m, Feb) and very doubtful stayer. Acts on good and heavy going. 6/10 S Flanagan

Ballyfitz

(143) Another runner for the Twiston-Davis yard. Previous winner of Pertemps Hurdle, disappointing 13th in the race last time. Better handicapped over fences, proved he stays 3½m when good 4th in Blue Square Gold Cup (3½m). Needs to improve his jumping for Aintree. Acts on good, but best form with some give and acts well on heavy going. 4/10 D England

Ollie Magern

(143) 12 year old. Possibly on the downgrade these days, but ran best race since reappearance when 7th in William Hill Chase. Sometimes moody. Fell at 2nd fence last year. Probably acts on any going, poor mover. 4/10 T Molloy

Arbor Supreme

(142) Got poor ride last time, held up and still to be asked for an effort when winner had gone for home. Finishing strongly but too late (2m5f on heavy). Stays at least 3m6f, unseated penultimate start. Winner on soft and good ground. Capable of improvement. 5/10 P Townend

Maljimar

(142) Runner-up to A. P. McCoy and Witchita Lineman in last year’s William Hill Chase. Hasn’t raced since being placed in 3m7f slowly run X-Country chase in December. However, weakened in latter stages of truly run event at 3m3½f. Has finished weakly more than once and made mistakes. 8/10 D Jacob

The Package

(141) Very well handicapped and Improving, 2nd in William Hill Chase finishing best of all last time. Bred to stay; by one Ascot Gold Cup winner in Kayf Tara, out of a mare who is by another, Ardross. Jumps well for a novice. Quirky and not the strike rate you’d expect of one of his ability, done nothing wrong last two starts. Probably equally effective on soft and good going. 8/10 G Lee

Piraya

(141) Not lived up to expectations since coming over from France. Poor run latest start in Racing Post Chase. Yet to race beyond 3m. Seems lazy these days. Acts on a soft surface. (t) 8/10 J Farrelly

Irish Raptor

(141) Good record over Aintree fences, winner and 2nd in Topham (2m5½f). Unseated rider in latest Becher Chase. Struggled when racing beyond 3m2f and probably won’t get home. Acts on soft and good going. 4/10 P Brennan

Cerium

(139) Poor mover. Possibly flattered 5th in this last year. Allowed to close up when pace slackened. Somehow suffered fractured skull in race. First race since when outclassed in Gold Cup. Not enough promise to suggest he’s likely to run well here. Acts on a soft surface. Inconsistent. 8/10 D Russell

Palypso De Creek

(140) Good record in France before coming over here. Only 14th in Pertemps Hurdle last time, better over fences. Good 2nd to Our Vic in Peter Marsh (3m on very soft), finishing well. Faded latter stages in Becher Chase (3m2f) behind Vic Venturi, racing with head a little high, possibly not enjoying these fences. Best form on a soft surface. 4/10 T Siddall

Hello Bud

(140) 12 year old, but improved at 11, winning Scottish National. Thought by some best on a sound surface: but good 3rd on soft to Gallant Nuit off a 7lb higher mark (same as here). Good experience, but not recovered just 8 days later in Becher chase. Inadequate test of 3m1½f last time. Trainer’s son rides, won’t be able to claim his allowance in the Grand National and is effectively be a 7lb penalty. Sam Twiston-Davis has ridden him the last 3 runs, best efforts so far under Paddy Brennan. Jumps well and races prominently. (t) 4/10 Mr S Twiston-Davis

Flintoff

(139) Part owned by the man himself. Out and out stayer who makes mistakes. Lazy and needed a bog. (b) 5/10 A Tinkler

Royal Rosa

(139) 11 year old, 6th in Scottish National in 08. Lightly raced stayer, poor win / run ratio. Carrying 6lbs overweight, 3rd behind Vic Venturi in Becher Chase (November), disappointing since. Acts on good and a soft surface. 7/10 K Renwick

My 100% Book

with value horses underlined, Big Fella Thanks is only ½% better so with a margin for error is not counted as value.

Big Fella Thanks 15/2,

Mon Mome 17/2

,

The Package 10/1

,

Niche Market 15/1

, Snowy Morning 16/1, Black Appalachi 16/1, Vic Venturi 20/1,

Comply Or Die 20/1

, Backstage 20/1, Arbor Supreme 28/1, Tricky Trickster 28/1, State Of Play 28/1,

Hello Bud 33/1, Eric’s Charm 33/1

, Character Building 40/1, My Will 40/1, Ballyholland 50/1, King John’s Castle 50/1, Can’t Buy Time 66/1, Madison De Berlais 66/1, Ballyfitz 100/1, Palypso De Creek 100/1, Dream Alliance 100/1, Cloudy Lane 132/1, Irish Raptor 132/1, Don’t Push It 132/1, Joe Lively 200/1, Nozic 200/1, Cerium 300/1, Ellerslie George 400/1, Maljimar 400/1, Flintoff 400/1, Royal Rosa 500/1, Ollie Magern 500/1,
Preist’s Leap 500/1, Piraya 500/1, Beat The Boys 500/1, Pablo Du Charmil 800/1,
Made In Taipan 1000/1, Conna Castle 1000/1.

My bets are:

Niche Market 33/1
Hello Bud 44/1
Mon Mome 25/1

Kilcrea Castle (DNR) 50/1

The Package 16/1
Big Fella Thanks 12/1

(half a bet)
With savers on:

Snowy Morning 25/1
Comply Or Die 28/1

Also backed the winner to carry 11 stones or more @ 11/8
With a saver bet on winner to carry less than 11 stones @ 4/5
And winner to carry more than 11 stones @ 7/4

Have just saved on Eric’s Charm @ 64/1

Value Is Everything

[vikingflagship]

ive just added another to my list by doing and each way on hello bud

vf

[BeauRanger]

had a good look through last night – got a list of a few might be good to get some opinions if you guys are up for it ? seemed to do ok when i checked the results of the comp … ill have a look again and edit the shortlist i chose – but some more experts that know about each horse would be great

this is my shortlist from last night

Ballyholland (might stay – dont think so)
Beat the boys
Cant Buy time
Erics Charm ( if 12 isnt a prob – some 12’s win)
Balyfitz – think might really suit his galloping style – I am a big fan but the weight puts me off)
Hello Bud – think this might win – i have a feeling

would take those 6 against any other with maybe the exception of Ballyholland who i think wont stay. Erics charm might do ok , Ballyfitz is as tough as nails – should suit him down to the ground. Hello Bud is quirky …. just the type to do all right round here.

my thoughts

[Neil Watson]

Arbour Supreme, Big Fella Thanks and Ballyholland for me.

[BeauRanger]

Arbour Supreme has a better chance than Ballyholland i think … too short a price for me we know he stays and is a good choice

so tell me what you think about the ones i chose …. apart from the non stayer

[stilvi]

Beat The Boys

(148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface. 4/10 B Hughes

I haven’t checked anything else but this horse wants good ground.

[KendalCavalier]

Hey Ginge

How come State of Play gets 3/10 and Made in Taipan 6/10? Surely you don’t think the latter will finish in front of the former (given they both stay upright)?

If he does then he wins.

[darren83]

State Of Play
The Package
Backstage
Big Fella Thanks
Can’t Buy Time

Are my tips

[Anonymous]

I have managed to get it down to;

got the national down to;

big fella thanks
snowy morning
state of play
backstage
king johns casle
cloudy lane
Maljimar
eric’s Charm

Now were do you go from here, can I really be arsed for such a pathetic race?

[Gerald]

The figures out of 10 are trainer form, KC.

[aphardy]

Well, looks like any of the 40 are going to win, based on these posts! If some people on here had a tipping line for tomorrow’s race, the message would last longer than Sting…

[thehorsesmouth]

Have added State Of Play and Snowy Morning to Comply Or Die. Will be a great spectacle as always

[emian]

Top rated would be 100. Here are my best four, in order of preference.
Tricky Trickster 73
Snowy Morning 63
The Package 70
Mon Mome 57

[clivexx]

As ever made decision relatively late, but cant get away from Mon mome. 7lb up for last years win is just fine.

[Author]

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