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It’s a pity he’s got 10.2 and not 10.3, because he would possibly have gone to the top of that group because of his win the other day.
I did tell you a little while back about a system used to determine the first five home in last year’s National mainly derived from Nick Mordin (The Weekender) with a few personal and pertinent tweaks.
I can tell you that the horse that accumulates the most points and therefore will now be my main National bet for this year is State Of Play even bearing in mind that he is deducted points for not having run since Christmas (normally a big negative).
Also scoring highly is Arbor Supreme especially as a lot of points are based on previous Aintree runs be it over the National course or the Mildmay.
So there, my colours have been nailed to the mast and I will be lumping on both on Bet365 given that they have been NRNB and 1-2-3-4-5 for quite some time now.
KC
I’m astonished SOP has come out at number one. Last horse to win the National off one season’s run was….? And for that run to not even be complete….I’d imagine the system is flawed somewhere although Arbor is fair enough just minor doubts about his class and participation, imo.I think they can get horses pretty fit without running them these days. Jockey was sure he would’ve won last year if he hadn’t made a mistake and said the horse loved every minute of it. Given that there was a reason for his bad run in the Hennessy certainly got a chance.
Big Buck’s….
To the comment about Chief Dan George not getting in, i’ve been keeping a record of who’s likely to stay in and who’s likely to drop out…..ages ago CDG was impossible to get in.
However, with the recent unexpected drop outs at the latest declaration stage I have him at 40th on the list. He’s getting in by the skin of his teeth on my list.
For my money I hope he does as i’ve got him at 202/1 along with Ballyfitz at 319/1 and Eric’s Charm at 510/1 (thanks for the heads up that the owners wanted him to run Gerald)
Some of things SOP does well on is that he has won a handicap chase off a mark greater than 140, he’s won or been placed in a chase with 24 or more runners, he obviously loves Aintree having previously won on the Mildmay as well as now having been placed in the National and he doesn’t have many negatives i.e. he is not a novice nor was he last season (big negatives), he didn’t run at Cheltenham, he is a perfect age, he is far enough away from the top of the handicap and he’s never fallen or unseated.
Aside from this the trainer is in good form at the moment, having plenty of winners and placed horses. The vibes, like last year, are positive so really what’s not to like and get stuck into?
Fair enough to all replies. We must assess and make our decisions accordingly. I agree he’s been given a fair chance at the weights, but 4.5 miles after one incomplete run in a year, rules his win chance out instantly for me. I’ll be the first to congratulate all backers if he wins, gl.
Mely Moss got closest to winning without any run whatsoever but you’re right, he didn’t win. He came up against a very well handicapped horse on the day.
Mely Moss was an
animal
,wasn’t he
just different gravy given his lack of starts over here.Who do you suppose will be carrying David Johnson’s primary colours this year? Basically who’s gonna have the spotted cap and who’s settling for red?
Though Comply Or Die would be the obvious choice; it looks like The Package is going to start the more fancied of the 2…?
I’d given up this race as a bad job a few weeks ago, and have been involved in displacement activity so as not to think about it. However, am beginning to think I might be able to escape with something.
For my money I hope he does as i’ve got him at 202/1 along with Ballyfitz at 319/1 and Eric’s Charm at 510/1
CDG 207.15
B 360
EC 513.98
Does anyone have an opinion on Palypso de Creek which I think ran well behind Our Vic and also behind Venturi and that run was at Aintree.
I’d given up this race as a bad job a few weeks ago, and have been involved in displacement activity so as not to think about it. However, am beginning to think I might be able to escape with something.
For my money I hope he does as i’ve got him at 202/1 along with Ballyfitz at 319/1 and Eric’s Charm at 510/1
CDG 207.15
B 360
EC 513.98Great minds think alike sir!
Although Palypsl De Creek does appear to have most of the credentials I look for, I think he’s a bit young at 7.
My alternatives to CDG are:
Niche Market and Dream Alliance.
May the best man win.
I don’t quite understand the opposition to Palypso De Creek in the market. He ran a great race behind Our Vic, albeit he’s been raised accordingly. He is generally in the 100-120 range, and has even gone out to 200 at times. His French win shows that he is very dangerous when carrying a low weight.
edit: not saying he’ll win, just that the price is too big.
Palypso – He’ll need to jump the fences more fluently than he did in the Becher – I backed him that day so watched him carefully and he jumped very stickily.
I’m currently the right side of Maljimar and Snowy Morning. Do fancy State of Play and the Chief if he gets in.
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