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My shortlist is…
Black Apalachi
Ellerslie George
Hello Bud
Preists Leap
Notre Pere
Knowhere
Ollie MagernI think they are great outsider chances (except Black Apalachi who obviously isn’t an outsider)
cheif dan george was going for hte scottish version, but todays news on racing post, is he’ll be going for the national, will he get in? if not balloted out, what do you think of his chances?
vf
I don’t think he’ll get in. If he does it will be the first National that I haven’t been able to watch..I’ll have to record it and watch it later….
why? are you working, for the last 5years we’ve been to aintree, but this year i’ll be watching it from home
though you don’t actually see much at the races, of the actual national, the atmosphere i’ll miss on the dayvf
My shortlist four right now is
Big Fella Thanks (obviously trained for the National, big race as a 7-y-o, impressive win last time out)
Eric’s Charm (Strong horse, under-rated, wins big-ish handicap chases, put paid to not being able to go left-handed in last race)
Comply or Die (2nd last year, 1st year before, evident C&D specialist, carrying less than last year)
Can’t Buy Time (Hugely impressive at Cheltenham in December – might be ‘switching’ him later, though!)Definitely keen on the top three, although might end up backing something else entirely!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I checked out Chief Dan George’s weight as soon as he won the William Hill and was really disapointed to see him at 10,2, because there really is no way he’ll make it at that weight. If 10,4 if pushing it; then 10,2 is a no hoper really, unfortunately.
would of been great if he had the chance of getting in
and i share the worry he defo won’t get inim not in tomorrow soo will be late checking the latest scratchings as tomorrow is deadline for scratching, but will most certainly come on her to see whose been scratched
vf
Two key trends over the last 20 years – age between 8-12, weight between 10-0 and 11-1.
2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0
2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10-8
2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10
2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11
2000 Papillon 9 10-12
1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-6
1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-8
1992 Party Politics 8 10-7
1991 Seagram 11 10-6
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-6Now obviously there’s a raft of horses with current entries which meet these trends, but following on from my initial shortlist of 4, I will highlight at some point another 4 which fit in this model and have some interesting form lines.
Another trend that I will look at is a ‘typical’ profile of a National winner, extracting the form figures for the prep runs, going by historical data for the past 4 seasons.
Hopefully this will provide some insight and ammo not only for myself but for the board in general.
Place your bets!
Bet 365 now NRNB and offering e/w at 1/4 odds 1st 5.Not sure who i fancy yet. Any tips will be most welcome and analysed by me for me!
with the weights being condensed/compacted will the "winner needs to be carrying less than 11st 1lb" ring true this year?
Mon Mome – 218278
Comply Or Die – 1
Silver Birch – 8242
Numbersixvalverde – 84B443
Hedgehunter – 92406Obviously a mixed bag of results returned – Comply Or Die seems to be an anomaly, and out of the last 5 years only MM has posted a victory in the build-up – lots of placed efforts in some large fields, and all were either 9 or 10 so experience is key.
I will now highlight 4 potentials who meet these trends and have had intriguing preps:
Snowy Morning 10 10-13 – 83223 (recently in smaller fields, not beaten far perhaps to regain confidence – 6th last year, 3rd year before, experienced and stays, goes on most ground, fallen twice in career, pace?)
Arbor Supreme 8 10-8 – 37U2 (prefers soft ground, wins/places in large fields, good jumper, fallen once (as novice), contender)
Cane Brake 11 10-8 – 635U (5th in GC in 2007, PU in Lexus latest, form prior solid, wins in large fields, prefers soft ground, style suited)
Irish Raptor 11 10-7 – 4U5 (course winner, good jumper, good trainer, distance?)
These 4 are all biggish prices who could fare well.
out of those you listed a seem to like cane brake? but don’t really know much about the horse
vf
Cane Brake is a former PP Chase winner and Grade B winner in Ireland back in 2006 and was a decent 5th to Kauto Star in the 2007 GC. PU in the Irish National in 2007 and injured and lightly raced remainder of 07 and 2008, since returned in 2009, staying on 6th behind Beroni at Galway in October and close 3rd behind Dorset Square in November, but remote 5th in Proudstown and PU in Lexus latest when trip stretched him. Few question marks obviously but bit of a forgotten horse if you ask me and has returned in reasonable heart since hayday in 2006.
I know whats been impressing me through out the season.Mon Mome ran a great race in third in Gold Cup.
Arbor Supreme ran a super race and in my opinion is ready for this or the irish version.
Niche Market has been running well all season, but a change of tactics is called for him to walk away with top prize.
Snowy Morning race was less impressive than Arbor, but came back after losing his place.
Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi also ran a great race in the Bobbyjo.
Now I could be wrong (not the first time) but I think these are your form horses and the winner could be one of these.A bit of latest news I stumbled upon . . .
Backstage
is to have his final run before the John Smith’s Grand National this weekend.
Gordon Elliott’s eight-year-old, formerly trained by Evan Williams, was third in a novice hurdle at Musselburgh when last seen in February, and he is due to carry 11st in the great race if all goes to plan in the An Uaimh Chase at Navan on Saturday.
Elliott said: "He’ll run on Saturday at Navan and then he’ll go to the National. He’ll run in a two-and-a-half-mile Grade Three chase, just so we can get a bit of a pipe-opener into him, and then it’s the National."
State Of Play
is in top form as he prepares for a second tilt at the Grand National.
Williams’ charge was fourth to Mon Mome 12 months ago and has been specifically trained for the Aintree spectacular on April 10.
"He worked on Saturday and schooled yesterday. I’m very happy with him, our horses are in very good form – they are running big races," said the Llancarfan handler.
"I honestly don’t think I’ve ever been as enthusiastic about State Of Play. I’m glad he’s only had that day out in the Hennessy at Newbury. He is so fresh and seems so happy.
"He’s got a couple of good strong pieces of work to do and then it will be fingers crossed we don’t have too much rain and the weather is decent. It’s exciting."
I’d prefer if SoP had some sort of prep run on a racecourse before the big one but EW obviously knows better than me, will definitely be on eachway judged from last season’s taking performance. Probably the class act in the field being a former Hennessy winner.
Rich,
State Of Play is at his best fresh, indeed his form is considerably better fresh. I’d imagine Williams will be purposely NOT running him or sending him to a racecourse.If he is as good now, then will run a big race. There must, however, be a doubt. Is getting on a bit now.
Value Is Everything
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