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Anyone who keeps their own ratings is liable to them either suffering from slippage or the opposite problem, inflation, over time.
Because trainers and owners were strongly critical of ratings going up for beaten jumpers, placed horses weren’t raised as much as they should have.
I believe that it was roughly every 3-5 years that NH ratings were raised wholesale by 10 lbs, to counteract the slippage.
That’s interesting because on the GN blog many use strike-rate (win & place) as a key indicator
What you suggest implies that a horse that didn’t win very often but placed frequently (i.e. still a healthy s/r) would not go up that much in the handicap – making it potentially well-in at the weights – i.e. 3rd in the Hennessy and Welsh in the same season would have been largely unpenalised
Whereas winning another handicap over 3m+ would have led to a penalty
Yet now, with no slippage, having a high place strike-rate will be penalised more than in the past
Oh, that is all too much for my poor little brain.
I thought you were interested in this subject because of the difference between the horse’s OR and its RPR.
Obviously, this would beg the question of whether the Racing Post Ratings have ever suffered from either slippage or inflation, and if so, are the ratings on the website the historical ones, or have they been corrected later?
It’s this trends thing – which indicators to rely on and how far back to trust them (and which make sense!)
I’m not a fan of win & place strike-rate – prefer a horse to have won one or two biggish handicap pots rather than be a place specialist
Monty’s Pass – Kerry National
Amberleigh House – Becher 1st, 2nd and 2nd, GN 3rd (Aintree specialist)
Hedgehunter – Thyestes
Numbersixvalverde – Theystes, Irish National
Silver Birch – Becher, Welsh
COD – Eider off topweight
Mon Mome – Cheltenham Listed £55kIn terms of highest RPR-OR the vast majority of runners have >5 lb (most >7lb – it is lifetime best run after all)
But Butler’s Cabin was 0 lb last year which was enough to put me off (his RPR had been downgraded from 150 to 147 too)
It’s a shame Monkerhostin didn’t get an entry considering that gutsy win today.
Of the horses i had last year, the ones who are entered this year are…
Black Apalachi
Preists Leap
Kilbeggan Blade
KnowhereI just can’t seem to go against Knowhere. If luck isn’t as against his this year as it was last year i am convinced he will run well!
I’ve already expressed my interest in Black Apalachi and Preists Leap for this year again…
But i’ve been a bit put off my Kilbeggan Blade. He last fe runs since the National have been disapointing (although his third behind Eric’s Charm wasn’t disgraceful) i don’t see what i saw in him last year
I’ve just looked up Knowhere because you mentioned him Peter. I’ll try to look out for him at 2nd Becher’s when I watch the 2009 GN next time.
Maybe not one for the GN, because KC will have our guts for garters, because he is by Lord Americo, and has the Lord Gayle influence. However, his RPR has dropped from 155 to 139, despite him achieving a RPR of 150 only four months ago. I’ll entertain having bets on him in his races in the next few months, but might baulk at having a bet in the Blue Square Gold Cup.
[As an aside, I just looked at Lord Gayle’s pedigree, and he has got the classiest pedigree, measured on dosage, I have come across since I started looking a year ago. He has 60 dosage points, when the maximum is 64. They are distributed 25-14-15-2-4 , so 39 of them are tending towards speed, and only 6 towards stamina.]
Will Knowhere even get into the race with his plummeting mark? Backed him twice this season but the horse is past it imo.
I tried working it out a couple of days ago, and my guess is that the cut-off will be the same as last year – 139.
edit: I’d have thought Knowhere would be interesting for the Veteran Chases coming up at Doncaster and Newbury towards the end of the month. Trip and courses ought to suit.
I hope I’m not putting the kibosh on Viking Flagship’s money, but…. I too have dreamt that Niche Market wins the Aintree National.
Well, kind of. During Cheltenham last year, I dreamt that a horse starting with the letters "NIC" won the big one. Niche Market was the only contender but he obviously wasn’t going to get in at Aintree, so I backed him in his Cheltenham race, and he was down the field.
Of course, he then wins the Irish National at a big price and I have nothing on him.
So, if he lines up at Aintree, even if everything is against him, I have to have something riding on him.
Roll on the weights though…
NICto de Beauchene has just won at Kempton; 8 year old; ground good/soft distance 3m+ Grand National 2011??
Kilcrea Castle running in the GN isn’t as certain as we were thinking . . .
Monday 8th Feb
It has been a really good couple of weeks for the horses and I have run some really nice youngsters as well as some interesting new recruits and some notable improvers. Kilcrea Castle looks a smart prospect – his run at Ascot when 3rd just behind The Sawyer was franked again by the latter winning at Cheltenham. He will go to either Wincanton or Kempton next and depending on the outcome of that we will decide about the Grand National. He is a brilliant jumper and I think that the step up in trip from Ascot will help. He is only 8 and I think he has a really bright future. He was trained in Ireland by Jack’s father Pat and is most definitely the apple of his eye – I can understand why!
Well if the power of positive thought is worth anything gerald, I’m on your side with a cheeky interest at 420/1 after your ‘dark horse’ comments some months ago. Start chanting the kilcrae mantra now……
Probably not as bad as I’m painting.
If the horse runs well, they’ll go for the National? And the horse ought to run well next time.
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