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Overall i’m pleased with the list. A few entries i was surprised to see were…
Our Vic
Razor Royale
Ellerslie George – this boy will have my money on the dayGood Luck – he’s my portfolio at the moment, probably be a small loser by the time I’ve finished with my Grand National bets but who knows
I like Niche Market too, strong traveller, gutsy, jumps well; 20/1 is about fair atm.
At bigger odds, the one that I’ve been following since the Autumn is French raider Palypso De Creek, who ran superbly had Haydock behind Our Vic and looked a dour stayer. If his jumping holds up and gets into a decent rhythm 50/1 looks huge.
Same here with Palypso Rich – since I found out he’d been sold to race over here. That said I wasn’t particularly impressed with his jumping at Aintree – he got round well enough but there was at least one point in the race where I thought a refusal might be on the cards.
Agree Irish, hence why I say if his jumping holds up, he could go well. At least he’s had a go round the Aintree fences and I feel he has been targeted for the National since trained by Longdson. He is my main ante post bet.
Palypso had a loose shoe at Aintree; he was very impressive the other day albeit with a lot less weight than Our Vic. Very young, though. My thoughts are currently turning back to Black Apalachi and I’m having a bet on State of Play now that there’s a reason for his bad run in the Hennessey. Given that so many horses are missing prep races perhaps a horse that goes well fresh will have an advantage. A lot of interesting horses lurking around eg Treacle and Mangans’ horse.
Peter
They will be announced at a Luncheon on Tuesday 16th Feb.
I was working on my own guesstimates yesterday, but lost my spreadsheet. Made me a little bit down. Doesn’t affect my betting, but it was my little hobby of seeing which horses fit, depending upon which trends are used. Not sure that I will get back in the groove next week. I’m preoccupied with things at work at the moment. Would need to spend about 10 hours reinputting stuff.
Anyway, I’ve come to the conclusion that if anyone asks me for one horse for the National, the reply will be Beat The Boys.
Can anyone let me know what the handicap slippage pre-2003 was all about?
When did slippage occur and what effect would it have had on GN runners?
Was it at season’s end, 31st Dec?
Was it for older horses only?
Etc
Any help much appreciated…
I wouldn’t back a horse by Lord Americo (Siegemaster) with someone else’s money. By Lord Gayle as was STRONG GALE and you should all know about him by now in terms of the National!
Pablo, I would read every few years that the NH ratings were being bumped up 10 lbs at the start of the season, August, before summer racing was introduced.
Maybe you could ask Silvoir for more details, who works for the BHA, or perhaps email Phil Smith? I’m sure he wouldn’t mind writing on the subject in his blog.
You can send the men in white coats round if you like but i have a fancy for Bible Lord not the best jumper LOL but there is a big chase in this fella .
Interesting to note Mark Grant back on board at Wetherby tomorrow.
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