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“Bring back the has-beens I say!”
This year’s has beens were Cloudy Glen and Sam Brown. Not really advertising the form of has beens.
If the rules stated the minimum qualifying OR to run was 140 I wonder how many runners there would be?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"tbh Before the race I’d have made The Big Breakaway the most likely faller of the whole field. His placed Welsh Grand National performance a rare reasonable round of jumping. Very poor jumps at Cheltenham last time out and looked temperamental too.
Hill Sixteen has never particularly impressed me with his jumping or temperament over normal fences, but that goes out the window when assessing this race. Hill Sixteen has certainly in the past taken well to these unique obstacles. However, although has run well in the Bechers when seemingly coming into the races “not in good form”; he went into yesterday’s race after a particularly lacklustre effort. Stranger things have happened, but asking a lot to bounce back from a well beaten 10th of 10. Hence the 80/1. Can’t blame connections for running though. Just a sad end.
Cape Rebellion was out of form, but that was only half the reason for his SP. Two falls in his last 5 chases and far from certain to stay. Surprised he didn’t start 500/1 tbh.
Form – how good a horse is – is one thing, but alongside that is how likely a horse is of showing that form. Poor jumpers are naturally less consistent because it prevents them from showing their form as often… And more prone to injury which can in turn lead to a poorer temperament, which again will lead to even less consistency…
So although being “out of form” doesn’t in itself make a horse a poor jumper, imo it could be the other way around. More poorer jumpers are out of form.
However, better horses can also be out of form. So although I am for a reduction in runners in the Grand National, there will still be many out of form horses. Have to expect quite a bit shorter prices if reducing to “30 or 32”.
Value Is EverythingMy comment about has-beens was tongue-in-cheek Green
The race has changed and it’s never going to be full of old plodders again now.I think the criteria to have won over three miles is not unreasonable though. The current requirement to have placed fourth really doesn’t seem very exacting for such an extreme test. Though I do appreciate none of these blanket rules are perfect.
“I acknowledge this would have eliminated previous winners Rule The World and Noble Yeats among others, but the current rule is not a good look”.
Oooooh, I wish you’d written the rules Marlingford.
I’d have been thousands of pounds richer had The Last Samuri and Any Second Now won. LOLtbh though, I don’t think a rule like yours would’ve stopped many winners from running, because connections would’ve made sure they’ve won once at 3m.
…And it helps stop those deliberately not running a horse at 3m+ in order to get a better handicap mark.
Value Is Everything“Cape Rebellion was out of form, but that was only half the reason for his SP. Two falls in his last 5 chases and far from certain to stay. Surprised he didn’t start 500/1 tbh.”
Perhaps his having walloped Noble Yeats (and Run Wild Fred and French Dynamite) in a graded chase with the comment “jumped well” had something to do with the price.
He might not have stayed; although winning over 1m61/2f in summer as a 3 year on the Flat, hacking up in an Irish Ces on soft at 4 then cruising to victory over 2 1/2 miles on heavy on his first hurdles starts a couple of months later suggests he might.
A review will take place to see what changes (if any) need to be made…..please who do they think they are kidding, these reviews just like others (whip etc) always end up with changes being made regardless because they seem to view it as they always have to be seen to be doing something.
To me, the two obvious areas that I think they can change is the field size and reducing the race distance by shortening the run to the first fence even more, that will help reduce the speed the horses arrive at it, which for me has been somewhat of an issue ever since they reduced the size of the fences…..I don’t think that there is as much respect for them as there was in the past because jockey’s now know that they are not as solidly built and that you can jump through a fair bit of the top part of them rather than jumping over them. Another telling fact this year was the field rather than being spread right across the width of the course all congregated more to the inside of the course almost as if they were riding in just another long distance chase rather then the National.
With regards to the sad death of Hill Sixteen, when you consider ironically that he had previously raced a total of 6m 4F and jumped 42 of those National fences combined in his two Beecher Chase runs and up until Saturday, had not actually fallen in any of his 27 career starts, I do think there is validity in his trainer commenting that on some level those trying to disrupt the race causing the delay (which resulted in him getting really overly worked up) played a big part in his death rather than the race not being made as safe as it can realistically be for its participants.
Personally, I don’t think they should make any changes to the race off the back of this year’s running but I very much doubt BHA have the fortitude/appetite to stand up and argue/defend a position of ‘after a review no changes will be made’.
“Is the Grand National a problem racing doesn’t need?”
No, on balance the race is still an asset for racing.
If racing decided to stop the race, all I can say is “You don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone”.
From my perspective I think the Grand National has two big problems:
1) There’s no getting around it, 40 horses is too many. No, literally, there’s no getting around the mass stampede of riderless horses that wreaks havoc with the race every year. It’d be different if every one of those 40 horses could be reasonably expected based on form to make it around the entire course (let alone win) but you can clearly pick out several that weren’t true 4-mile horses. Sure longshots can and do win but I really don’t see the point in letting every Tom Dick and Harry enter on the slight chance the race falls apart enough for them to be one of the last horses standing.
2) Britain has a unique cultural tendency towards allowing small groups to create public hysteria. That’s not a cancel culture thing, it’s a product of a smaller population/country size in combination with the dreadful state of tabloid media. Take any issue of the day and you can find some charismatic so-and-so ready and willing to run their mouth on morning television or the Daily Mail and suddenly it becomes The Great Issue of Our Times and Something Must Be Done. The Grand National just got the spotlight this time. I’m not really sure what can do about this short of sending the Murdoch family to prison
As for the fate of racing as a whole, I can’t see it going anywhere in the USA at least. The animal rights people don’t have much of a foothold and while they got a win with de facto banning greyhound racing, there’s never been the same support for ending horse racing. Flat racing is declining for economic reasons (can’t compete with other sports betting) but jumps racing is weirdly insulated by the fact that it doesn’t rely on money from betting, it’s more of a social thing. The racing is secondary to the tailgating and what the Irish would call craic. No coincidence that most of our steeplechase trainers, jockeys and horses are Irish-bred!
On the other hand, harness racing (“trotting” in European parlance) has actually been growing and I think that’s because it has maintained a big working-class base. There’s no royal money, no oil money, it’s built around ordinary people training and often driving their own horses at the local county fair. Also helps that the Standardbred breed is sounder and faster than it ever has been. The horses make 20+ starts a year and breakdowns are vanishingly rare. They don’t have the public profile that the Thoroughbreds do but they’re in much better shape as an industry.Grand National day was sold out two weeks beforehand. That does not look like a race that is a problem for racing to me.
Are we seriously suggesting the race should be discontinued just because a few professional protestors do not like it? That looks like the start of a slippery slope.
What next? Ban the rest of Aintree as well? Dark Raven died after a fall over hurdles. I am sure the protestors think that should be banned as well.
Then ban Cheltenham and the rest of National Hunt racing too.
Then see how long Flat racing would last.
Racing is still a hugely popular spectator sport. It can see off the protestors rather than capitulating to them.
Sandy Thomson was interviewed on Radio 4’s flagship Today programme this morning at 07:20. Well worth a listen if you can access BBC Sounds.
Judging from some of the posts on this thread, the animal activists will consider their actions last Saturday, even if there was an exceptionally small number of them a rip roaring success.
“Is the Grand National a problem racing doesn’t need?”
Deary me!
I wasn’t suggesting it should be binned CAS, just throwing out a question for debate.
It is, though, a bit of a problem child for the authorities. On the one hand it is possibly the only event in the calendar that reaches the entire populus, not even Cheltenham or the Derby would engage the public in the way the National does.
On the other hand it is a unique race with unique tests for horses and riders and presents a higher level of risk with, currently, a high fatality risk to equine participants. The public gaze, welcomed on the one hand, is a double-edged sword.Latest on Cape Gentleman:
https://twitter.com/nickluck/status/1647875521483530241?cxt=HHwWgoCzwcqDt94tAAAA
Agree with CAS.
These so called protesters probably have a different hi vis jacket for each day of the week.
Protesting is their life, their reason to exist, they have nothing else to do.More attention should be paid to the lives and activities of these people.
“I don’t like horse racing, it should be banned” wails someone on the 5Live phone-in this morning (Monday).
Why do people think that the world revolves around what they personally want, only? That only things they like should exist? F me, the entitlement of people these days that only their view should be heard is ridiculous.
If I don’t like something, then I don’t engage in it, and I engage on something I do like. I am uninterested in motorsports or Star Wars or one-day cricket or the music of Ed Sheeran. But hey, if someone likes motorsports or those other things, they can go and enjoy it, it’s their call. I don’t ring up a radio station to tell a DJ not to play Ed Sheeran song, I just turn it off.
Then again, I have seen racing people on twitter state that “the protestors should be shot” and someone in here posting that rowdy drunks at a racecourse should be “castrated”. Proving that there are dreadful opinions on both sides. I believe in a democracy and that people can protest about horse racing if they wish. This isn’t China (yet)!
Oh yes, those that say “I used to love the National when Red Rum won it” (quote from another idiot caller on today’s phone-in. Where do they find these know-nothings – oh, I know, they exist in the general populus who are typically half-witted which is why we end up with the abject governments and poorly-debated elections we have, but that’s another issue). Anyway, the nostalgic Red Rum fan inevitably failed to notice the changes in the course for safety purposes since then, and the clear fact that horses died in 1973, 1975 (two) and 1977 (two) all while Rummy was winning their hearts. It matters that horses die in 2023, but it didn’t really matter in 1975. I remember a photo of poor Land Lark landing on its broken neck on the back of the newspaper the next day, an image I will never forget. But back then we didn’t allow thick people to share their thick opinions on tv or radio.
Enjoyed Chezza’s contributions on page 1, as well as the dig at the awful Toyah late ron.
Not sure what I feel, still, about it all.
The race has changed and it’s never going to be full of old plodders again now.
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