Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Grand National 2024
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February 6, 2024 at 18:56 #1680164
As part of the process the authorities are supposed to look at horses that have made mistakes, fallen, unseated and refused etc. and will supposedly determine if a horse is fit to take part. If they are to truly do this then one of the best handicapped horses in the field must surely come under scrutiny in Farouk D’Alene. I wonder if they will make an example of him.
February 6, 2024 at 19:16 #1680167They did away with the reserve system last season so with just 34 runners even more opportunity for those with multiple entries to play the system.
February 6, 2024 at 19:39 #1680170“As part of the process the authorities are supposed to look at horses that have made mistakes, fallen, unseated and refused etc. and will supposedly determine if a horse is fit to take part. If they are to truly do this then one of the best handicapped horses in the field must surely come under scrutiny in Farouk D’Alene. I wonder if they will make an example of him.”
If the authorities were to think that banning a horse from running and making an example of connections would be good PR, they would be mistaken in my view. It draws yet more attention to the welfare issue, and sends out the message that connections don’t care about the horse that they have entered. I don’t think this is a good look.
That’s not to say that a horse with a particularly bad jumping record shouldn’t be prevented from taking part, but I think this option should be used with care and detachment rather than enthusiasm.
In general I think that if a horse has managed to achieve the required handicap mark and number of runs, then there will be very few times that it should be prevented from taking part. If we ban Faroukh D’Alene, what about Conflated? He’s unseated the last twice, and has quite a few letters in his form, yet has regularly been capable of jumping well at speed to place in numerous big races.
February 6, 2024 at 19:52 #1680174“Just 33 in the UK. Wow.”
Not good for British racing. I do wonder if the lack of English runners will affect the popularity of the race. Most casual racegoers this side of the Irish Sea will not watch much Irish racing.
Looking at the entries, I did not realise Samcro was still in training. I hope him and Battleoverdoyen are not in there just to keep other horses out.
February 6, 2024 at 19:55 #1680175Already have bets on Desertmore House when he won the Kerry National and Noble Yeats when he won Cleeve Hurdle.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.February 6, 2024 at 19:56 #1680176Gosh Ginger tipster I hadn’t spotted Fiddlerontheroof listed. So searched him last we saw him race was in November 2022. And it was couple years ago he came placed 5th in the National
Apparently he now switched trainers recentlyVF x
February 6, 2024 at 20:01 #1680179The top 60 on weights day are usually guaranteed to get a run so I will be looking at the list more closely then.
February 6, 2024 at 20:15 #1680180It’s a real shame that a horse such as Percussion, who has a better Aintree record than any of the horses entered, doesn’t even meet the qualifying rating nowadays (he’s on 129 currently).
I’m not suggesting anything is done about this as he’d never get in anyway, but it just goes to show how much the race has changed.
February 6, 2024 at 21:23 #1680192Worth noting quite a few on the list aren’t currently eligible to run but have chance to change that, need to have qualifying runs done by 26th March.
Need to have run in 6 chases under rules:
Classic Getaway (5)
Letsbeclearaboutit (5)
Meetingofthewaters (5)
Riaan (4)
Salvador Ziggy (4)
So Des Flos (4)
Favori De Champdou (3)Need to have run in a chase under rules this season:
Battleoverdoyen
Fiddlerontheroof
Mr Incredible
Le Milos
Revels Hill
SamcroFirst 4 in a chase over at least 2m 7.5F:
Adamantly Chosen
Ash Tree Meadow
Embittered
Placenet
Riaan (fails on 2 counts so far – see number of runs above)Also need to be rated 130 or above by UK handicapper when weights are decided on Feb 18th.
February 6, 2024 at 22:02 #1680194Fiddlerontheroof has entry Exeter Sunday
Vf x
February 6, 2024 at 22:59 #1680200What is Asterion Forlonge doing amongst the entries? Surely he won’t make it as far as the second?
February 6, 2024 at 23:00 #1680201“In general I think that if a horse has managed to achieve the required handicap mark and number of runs, then there will be very few times that it should be prevented from taking part”.
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Agreed, Marlingford.
However, it should not be too difficult for the authorities to make such a decision.
Just (unofficially – don’t want to bring attention to it) stop any horse rated with an “X” in Timeform from taking part. They could also give connections of such a horse the nod. So before the authorities need to take the decision connections can withdraw the horse themselves. ie No publicity about a horse being forced out due to not being a good jumper.…And by using Timeform in an unofficial capacity: If connections do moan about why they are prevented from running when a potential rival has fallen too and yet is allowed to run… The authorities can say “well you’re the one with a Timeform X, so we are not alone in thinking your horse is a poor jumper”.
Anyone know if any entry currently has an “X”?
Value Is EverythingFebruary 7, 2024 at 02:58 #1680217Still like Ontheropes for this, but not in a rush to back just now. I’ll look at future entries. Faded quickly in Thyestes, but I’m optimistic that he can be brought back.
I’m liking Empire Steel for Haydock Trial now, and a win there would see him get in. The 100’s is worth chancing I think, and I’m having some of that
Cashed out Conflated. Always the plan to bet him for this to layoff, but that was in the hope that he would win Cross Country.
The other interesting one for me is Limerick Lace at 40’s
Empire Steel 100’s
Galvin 50’s
Stattler 100’s
The Goffer 66’s EW5PlsFebruary 7, 2024 at 11:07 #1680225Added another so have 2 ew at present.
Kitty’s Light 40-1
Mahler Mission 16-1. 5 places.If Hewick were to run with the 11 stone 12 top weight, the above would carry 10 stone 3 and 10 stone 12 if my maths is correct. If he don’t they would carry 10 stone 6 and 11 stone 1 with Noble Yeats top weight.
February 7, 2024 at 12:24 #1680232Those two are on my shortlist Mike.
For novice gamblers who might be looking in on this thread I’d like to sound a precautionary note though.
BEWARE of backing too many horses ANTE-POST!!!
It is easy for a punter to believe he has value when one horse turns up at Aintree at a much shorter price on the day… But that is not always the case.
eg If I backed four horses all @ 31/1 ante-post and only one turns up at Aintree whose price on the day is single figures… 9/1 second favourite…
It is easy for me to believe I have better “value” than the 9/1 offered on the day.
However, the losses of the three that don’t run also need to be taken into account.£10 @ 31/1 Non-runner loser
£10 @ 31/1 Non-runner loser
£10 @ 31/1 Non-runner loser
£10 @ 31/1 Runner
Overall stake £40£10 @ 31/1 would return £320 for my overall stake of £40 and a £280 profit.
…Which means the price I’ve actually got on the day is 7/1.
ie A return of £320 on a £40 investment is the equivalent of £40 @ 7/1.Whereas £40 @ 9/1 on the day returns £400 for a £360 profit.
Value Is EverythingFebruary 7, 2024 at 13:00 #1680236It’s ok to back a few in the National antepost. The example Ginger gave he’s been unlucky with the NRs and would have had to have been very lucky to have the one that was left to win the race. Not only that but go all in one horse at £40 on the day? The more that get there and run for you the better the chance you have of finding the winner imo.
February 7, 2024 at 13:37 #1680239Unusually for me i’ve had an early punt on Cromwell’s
Letsbeclearaboutit 50sNot sure if it’ll get in though.
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