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I wouldn’t rule out Delta Work on 11-3, FF.
Beat Tiger Roll on very testing ground in the X-Country.
Am already on Galia Des Liteaux.
Value Is EverythingWe don’t “know” what the ground is going to be, Mike.
But just because we don’t “know”, does not mean we should stick our heads in the turf and ignore the forecast.Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t rule out Noble Yeats and if Mike is correct about Conflated (another Yeats prodigy) he could be a winner on top weight. Many clouds came close a few years ago (9 years to be exact) being second top weight. Love his Cleeve Hurdle run and while I thought he would struggle in the stayers at Cheltenham, it was a perfect for National.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Noble Yeats is one of mine, but his running over hurdles will need to have rekindled his love of jumping fences,
Conflated’s only chance of staying the Grand National trip is if it was Goodish ground. Sounds as if it’ll be softer than that. I’d expect him to switch to the Bowl if it came up Soft or Heavy and he’d have a decent chance in the Bowl.
Value Is Everything“We don’t know how soft it’s going to be yet as the weather site I looked at only has bits and pieces of rain from this Friday up to the day of the race at present.”
Well it has changed again since I typed this. ;o)
Most of the days leading up to Saturday 13th is forecast for rain, and people are backing the mud lovers like Nassalam. In fact I live in Greater Manchester and this winter has been one of the wettest in recent times.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.I like Nassalam and Noble Yeats but both have to shoulder a lot of weight which is a tough task over 4 and a half miles on heavy ground. I backed Mr Incredible last year. He was still going well when pulled up with a tack problem and I see no reason not to give him another chance.
The problem with those towards the head of the weights isnt so much them having to carry the weight, if everyone was 11 stone plus its all relative but actually despite the reduction to 34 runners there will be a good spread from top to bottom, its around 10 stone 6 at the moment. All that compressing of the handicap has gone out the window this year.
Tiger Rolls first national won was on apparent heavy ground when he was said as to not liking heavy going, so can’t see it being an issue for Corach Rambler.
VF x
Running on heavy ground over a mile further than he did in the Gold cup is Corach Ramblers biggest issue.
You’re a total nutcase if you’re happy taking 9/2 on him! He was out on his shield 3 weeks ago!
The primary thing about heavy going is acting on it.
Corach Rambler was not thought to act on heavy before the Gold Cup, but that has totally changed with the evidence of the Gold Cup.Whether he will recover in time is another matter.
Value Is EverythingTiger Rolls first national won was on apparent heavy ground when he was said as to not liking heavy going, so can’t see it being an issue for Corach Rambler.
———————————————————Tiger Roll’s run immediately prior to his “heavy” ground win was in the X Country victory on “soft”, VF. Where one fence was ommited due to “waterlogging” and run 47 seconds slow on Racing Post Standard.
His Grand National was run 36 seconds slow.Value Is Everything“I wouldn’t rule out Delta Work on 11-3, FF.”
He’s the only antipost I’ve bet so far Ginge, the unseating of Donaghue
was no fault of his own, he got barged by the horse on his left and then
the horse on his right going over the 21st last year.From a bit back, ……
“I think he has a great chance. I took the the 33s e/w and the 42s on the
exchange on the nose. So much can happen, but he looked comfortable over
the course last year. 33s seems very decent to me.Delta Work 33/1 e/w 6 places Bet365 and 41/1 on the exchange on the nose”
There’s still a couple of 33s out there.
National course is currently soft, heavy in places with an unsettled forecast ahead.
Heavy ground will all but ruin the race for my selections.
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