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Not over the National distance, very few winners are running with any purpose at the end, merely staying less slowly than the rest of the field.
Whilst I respect NC, I would be surprised if he won. Those at the top of the weights will find it tough. I think the Irish will fight out the finish, namely Seabass, Chicago Grey and Rare Bob…bit of rain due here in the next week.
If it’s soft or heavy Seabass and Rare Bob won’t stay. Looking at Chicago Grey’s form this season, his jumping has deteriorated. Needs to get back to the way he leaped in the National Hunt Chase.
F11/-(1)1111 SEABASS 9-10-12 Gunners Syndicate / Ted Walsh IRE (149)
Difficult horse to asses. Exceptionally progressive winner of last seven races (including point). Best effort yet last time out; won Grade 2 at Naas over just 2 miles (soft), gave 3 lbs and a length beating to Zaarito. Got back up despite mistakes at final two fences and looking set for third. Will be better over further than 2m so could still be well handicapped despite going up 35 lbs this season. Given impression when staying on over the furthest trip he’s tackled under rules (2¾m) should be suited by 3m+. Dual winner at that distance in points. Questionable whether he’ll stay 4½m. By soft ground miler Turtle Island. Some of his stock get 3 miles (like Bensalem) but few stay much further. Dam Muscovy Duck won over the furthest she raced, 2m3f hurdles. She’s a three parts sister to Moscow Flyer; both by Moscow Society out of a Ducky mare. Moscow Society was a stayer, 2nd in Queens Vase (2m on flat) as a 3 year old. Apart from Moscow Flyer his progeny also include Grand National placed Snowy Morning. Seabass is usually a good jumper (at least is when leading/disputing it), front runner when racing at shorter trips. Ran disappointingly only start on good going. Nothing categorical about distance or ground, but must be some doubts (if good) in both camps.10-U3032 CHICAGO GREY 9-10-13 John Earls / Gordon Elliott IRE (150)
Stable of 2007 Grand National victor Silver Birch. Chicago Grey won 2011 National Hunt Chase (4 miles Good) by 4½ lengths, from subsequent Scottish National winner Beshabar. Holds Alpha Beat (4th) on that form. Still every chance when unseating two out on reappearance (3m½f good-firm). Mark hasn’t dropped for two poor performances in Britain. 30 lengths 3rd to Weird Al in Charlie Hall (3m1f) and never travelling last of 7 in 3m3½f handicap. More encouraging latest start over inadequate 2½m (heavy) at Gowran Park. Staying on 16 lengths 2nd to eased Rubi Light (gave 4 lbs). Again displaying tendency to make mistakes in closing stages. Apt Approach (re-opposes on same terms) 6 lengths away. Return to marathon trip should suit. Acts on any going. Always held up, which doesn’t suit many Grand National winners.Value Is EverythingHi Gingertipster
I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.
I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.
If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.
I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.
Best of luck Ginger
By soft ground miler Turtle Island. Some of his stock get 3 miles (like Bensalem) but few stay much further.
I always take these sort of statements with a liberal dose of salt as there are relatively few races run over significantly further than 3m. What sort of sample are we talking about?
By soft ground miler Turtle Island. Some of his stock get 3 miles (like Bensalem) but few stay much further.
I always take these sort of statements with a liberal dose of salt as there are relatively few races run over significantly further than 3m. What sort of sample are we talking about?
A mistake, in my opinion. Breeding is a significant factor when determining potential stayers.
Hi Gingertipster
I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.
I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.
If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.
I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.
Best of luck Ginger
Big G,
It’s a much greater stamina test on soft/heavy .When West End Rocker won the Becher Chase over 3m2f on heavy ground, his time per furlong was slower than Ballabriggs took to win the Grand National on Good. Therefore it is probable it took more stamina to win the 3m2f event on heavy, than the 4m4f race on good. (As long as it wasn’t just because of a very slow Becher pace; which considering winning distances in November were 22 lengths, with 32 back to third; seems doubtful)
It is my belief a 4m4f Grand National run on soft/heavy ground will roughly require as much stamina as a 5m Grand National on good ground. Do you believe Seabass would stay 5 miles on good ground? I don’t.When the ground is soft/heavy at short distances it favours Seabass, because it brings his stamina in to play. At 4m4f I believe he’ll require a (relative) test of speed (good-soft at worst) at 4m4f to stay. Although of course there’s also the chance he won’t act on good ground at any distance.
Value Is EverythingBy soft ground miler Turtle Island. Some of his stock get 3 miles (like Bensalem) but few stay much further.
I always take these sort of statements with a liberal dose of salt as there are relatively few races run over significantly further than 3m. What sort of sample are we talking about?
The sample isn’t as big as I’d hope Stilvi. Although that in itself tells a story. May be not many Turtle Islands run at 3m2f+ because trainers don’t think they’ll stay. I believe the average chaser sired by Turtle Island is below 2m4f. I wouldn’t back Bensalem to stay any further than 3m2f and Dance Island failed to stay in the Welsh National.
Statistics like this should not be seen as that a horse definately won’t or definately will stay. Just something else to take in to account. When taken in conjunction with other information I’d say Seabass has only a 50/50 chance of staying 4m4f on good or good-soft. Far less than 50% with even more emphasis on stamina (on soft/heavy).
Of course Stilvi, it is only an opinion.
Value Is EverythingHi Gingertipster
I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.
I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.
If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.
I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.
Best of luck Ginger
Big G,
It’s a much greater stamina test on soft/heavy .When West End Rocker won the Becher Chase over 3m2f on heavy ground, his time per furlong was slower than Ballabriggs took to win the Grand National on Good. Therefore it is probable it took more stamina to win the 3m2f event on heavy, than the 4m4f race on good. (As long as it wasn’t just because of a very slow Becher pace; which considering winning distances in November were 22 lengths, with 32 back to third; seems doubtful)
It is my belief a 4m4f Grand National run on soft/heavy ground will roughly require as much stamina as a 5m Grand National on good ground. Do you believe Seabass would stay 5 miles on good ground? I don’t.When the ground is soft/heavy at short distances it favours Seabass, because it brings his stamina in to play. At 4m4f I believe he’ll require a (relative) test of speed (good-soft at worst) at 4m4f to stay. Although of course there’s also the chance he won’t act on good ground at any distance.
Hi again Ginger
Again I’m not disagreeing with your reasoning, it will take a good deal more stamina on heavy ground over a long distance.
All I am saying is that the ground won’t bother him, and my opinion, based on my observations of the way the horse runs and particularly how he is running at the end of a race, makes me think that he looks like a horse that will benefit from further. Of course it is uncharted territory he is going into, and I may well be wrong, he may blow up after 3 1/2 miles, but I don’t think he will.
If he was proven over that distance, I doubt he would still be on offer at 16-1….I did mention earlier to grab the 20-1 before it disappeared. I don’t think knowing if he manages 5 miles on good is a fair comment, I couldn’t say I know any that handle 5m on good, we would be into uncharted territory again.
I may be putting 2 and 2 together and making 5, but next Saturday will determine if I need to put my rosy tinted specs away
To be fair Big G, I’d much rather have 20/1 or 16/1 about Seabass than Synchronised, Junior or Chicago Grey at their current prices. Even with some stamina doubts, in my opinion he’s the best of the Irish.
Value Is EverythingBy soft ground miler Turtle Island. Some of his stock get 3 miles (like Bensalem) but few stay much further.
I always take these sort of statements with a liberal dose of salt as there are relatively few races run over significantly further than 3m. What sort of sample are we talking about?
A mistake, in my opinion. Breeding is a significant factor when determining potential stayers.
Of course it is but once you start considering races over significantly further than 3m you have to throw in a whole heap of guesswork because there is not enough races over the longer distances to draw definite conclusions. It is going back a few years but I doubt whether Mummy’s Pet was a major stamina influence but he did manage to sire Grand National runner-up The Tsarevich.
I think the be another reason for Ruby to pick On His Own, wasn’t Prince De Beauchene or On His Own going to run for a charity. With Prince out that means On His Own runs for the charity. Surely Ruby would be this charity best hope for getting the best place possible.
Ruby may be the charity’s best hope, but if Ruby doesn’t believe On His Own is his best chance he won’t ride it.
You were saying Ruby now comfirmed for On His Own. Mullins site.
Oh well, not quite the news I was hoping to hear this morning…Ruby riding On His Own.
I had even wondered if there had been a whisper last night that Ruby was going to ride Seabass, as Paddy Power cut him from 14-1 to 11-1, but obviously that’s not the reason behind the cut.
I suppose it’s fair enough, Ruby rides for Nicholls and Mullins, so if he’s asked to pick the best of their horses, then that’s that.
Ruby has ridden Seabass most, with his sister Katie riding a couple of times. I think Katie is a fair horsewoman, but if I’m brutally honest, I’d rather have one of the big boys on him for a race like the National.
I wonder when the jockey matter will be resolved by Ted Walsh.
After careful consideration of all the horses’ form and pedigrees I have come to the conclusion that Organisedconfusion has the most suitable name for the National.
Looks like the cut in Seabass’s price (11-1 for 14-1) this morning with Paddy Power, was an anticipation that Ruby would choose to ride him. He is back out to 14-1 with them.
I think Katie will probably get the ride going by comments I have been reading this morning. She has won twice on him, so I will just have to get my positive head back on, seeing as my money is already down.
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