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Some stats to help show the overall picture…
> Since I started this thread 23 races have been covered.
> A horse following the trends that I have identified has won 12 of the 23 races (52%).
> The 23 races involved a total of 165 runners.
> 65 horses (43%) followed the trends.
> Backing all “trend following horses” with a £1 stake would mean an outlay of £65 and have given a return of £31.04 i.e. to show a loss of £33.96Stats related to trends identified…
Trend identified : number of races used in : number of wins = strike rate[/color:qjc4mznp]
Age (within a certain range) : 1 : 1 = 100%
Odds : 4 : 2 = 50%
In the Top 3 of the betting : 8 : 5 = 63%
Official Rating (within a certain range) 13 : 5 : 38%
Previous race position : 5 : 3 = 60%
Won a Hurdle/Chase* before : 1 : 1 = 100%
Course winner : 2 : 0 = 0%
Distance winner : 5 : 2 = 40%
Going winner : 9 : 4 = 44%
*used only when appropriate to the race, e.g. Previous Hurdle winner in a Juvenile Hurdle race being analysed.Since the start of the season (also including races before I started posting here – from 25th October 2014 onwards)
Trend identified : number of races used in : number of wins = strike rate[/color:qjc4mznp]
> 51 races have been covered.
> A horse following the trends that I have identified has won 34 of the 23 races (67%).
> The 51 races involved a total of 325 runners.
> 136 horses (42%) followed the trends.
> Backing all “trend following horses” with a £1 stake would mean an outlay of £136 and have given a return of £146.82 i.e. to show a profit of £10.82Age (within a certain range) : 4 : 2 = 50%
Odds : 9 : 5 = 56%
In the Top 3 of the betting : 19 : 12 = 63%
Official Rating (within a certain range) 24 : 13 : 54%
Ran before same season* : 1 : 1 = 100%
Previous race position : 21 : 15 = 71%
Won a Hurdle/Chase before : 2 : 2 = 100%
Course winner : 4 : 2 = 50%
Distance winner : 10 : 5 = 50%
Going winner : 12 : 6 = 50%
Previous best win (a certain grade or level) : 2 : 2 = 100%
*sometimes used for early season races.This might help to show why I feel that looking at trends might be useful. It is not a perfect way of picking horses but the way I see it, reducing the field makes picking the winner easier and as long as the percentage of runners analysed is lower than the success rate, then it should be potentially rewarding.
I have looked at 43% of the runners and 67% of the time, one of them has won. Did I pick the right one ? That’s another question. I can say that I have enjoyed more success than I had done before, yesterday I backed all 3 in a treble and had a nice return, but there have been other weekends which have proved fruitless.
I maintain all the races, results stats etc on my blog, my apologies to the site owner here or moderators if I should not state this – please remove this reference if it should not be here. My blog is non-profit making and will always be that way, any ads are purely there to try and recover some of the costs.
Good luck with your bets.
Sunday 22nd February 2015
Overnight declarations
Horses on the trends listings…National Spirit Hurdle
Fontwell Park 3:10
Kilcooley Won 3/1[/color:15hjj2o3]
Silsol 2nd 4/9F[/color:15hjj2o3]= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Saturday 28th February 2015
Analysis done at the 5 day decs stage…
Race : Premier Kelso Hurdle
Course : Kelso 3:00
Distance : 2m 2f
Going : Good to SoftIn the last 9 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
2 top rated horses have won.
3 unrated horses have won.
1 winner had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
20/1 has been the highest winning SP.
4/5 has been the lowest winning SP.
The ages of the winners: 2 x 5yo, 4 x 6yo, 1 x 7yo, 2 x 8yo.The trends that I have found which I believe will help to narrow down the list to study and assist us in finding the winner are as follows…
> 8 of the previous 9 winners had fnished in the first 4 places last time out.Horses left in at the 5 day declaration stage that follow the trends are…
Bristol De Mai
Doctor Phoenix
Endless Credit
Engrossing
Glingerburn
Intense Tango
Medicine Hat
Mr Burgees
Nashville
Qalando
Roserrow
Seldom Inn
Shades Of MidnightSaturday 28th February 2015
Horses on the trends listings at the overnight decs stage…
Race : Premier Kelso Hurdle
Course : Kelso 3:00
Distance : 2m 2f
Going : Good to SoftBristol De Mai
Glingerburn
Intense Tango
Medicine Hat
Nashville
Shades Of MidnightGood luck with your bets !!
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