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Ancient World was the last top-weighted runner to be successful in 2004, before that, the only other horse to carry top weight to Victory in this race was Waajib who won the inaugural running in 1987 for I think, Alec Stewart.
I do like Kandidate today,,,
Suprised to get 7/2
The one doubt has been stamina but this is Goodwood and he got 10f at Sandown (impressively)
Suspect Admirals maybe one that prefers a good straight track, Crosspeace looks held and Melrose is on a recovery mission
good performance by crosspeace and I cant say I fancied it in this small field. I didnt have a bet as I hate Goodwood as a course in the same way I dislike Galway.
SHL
Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 2:35 pm on Aug. 4, 2006[br]I hate Goodwood as a course in the same way I dislike Galway. ÂÂÂ
Can’t imagine you’re having much fun this week.
Egan got Capable Guest in more trouble than Nayyir was :(<br>Same as he did on Bayeux the other day. Pathetic ride.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 3:05 pm on Aug. 4, 2006[br]
Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 2:35 pm on Aug. 4, 2006[br]I hate Goodwood as a course in the same way I dislike Galway. ÂÂÂ
Can’t imagine you’re having much fun this week.<br>
Indeed… You have to agree though. No doubting this week that Court Masterpiece, crosspeace and certain others demonstrated there love for the track and with previous experience could be backed. But betting is tough enough with out having to deal with all those horses who have little experience of Goodwood and being Irish I havent seen enough English tracks to be able to discern other similar places. Dont get me started on Galway….just how much better is a horse like Ansar at that place?? Certainly more then a few pounds.
SHL
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Only got done at the death by Dick Dastardly yesterday.:biggrin: <br> In the Stewards Cup, a high draw is usually favourable unless there is a Lochsong lurking in the low numbers.<br> Tax Free is surely better at 6f, yet has been raced all season over 5, expect a big run today.<br> One More Round, formerly a group class 7f horse, has risen from the dead this season and ran a blinder over 5f lto. Could win this, but the Portland would be an easier target.<br> Firenze took the M25 route in the Wokingham, and, as a consequence, had nothing left when it mattered. If Frankie can keep her in a straight line and find the gaps, she should win this.<br> In the Nassau, Nannina is better than she showed lto, and should benefit from the step up in trip. She would need to, as Ouija Board has much the best 10f form in the race, and  can surely be excused her last run.<br>
Stewards Cup should 10’s bar and anyone backing under that price has a slate loose. also anyone recommending/advising bets under that price has a slate loose too
Just my opinion of course ;)
What are the thoughts on the campaign that TAX FREE has been given by David Nicholls this season?
Three runs over 5f. in Group company, up to his proper trip today and drawn 27/28.
Colin
Assuming they split around the 14 stall, the evidence of Friday’s consolation race suggests the pace is more important than the draw. Although Fantasy Believer came up the stands side and finished close to the rail he was a couple of lengths ahead of the next home on his side and the next few home were bunched on the far side. Fantasy Believer was handicapped to win on the pick of his form this time last summer and it could be that the high draws have a slight advantage. There is a predominance of likely candidates on the far side so I’ll be focusing on that group and maybe looking at one from the bottom half just to cover that side.
The most likely sorts are One More Round (drawn 23), Desert Commander (16), Firenze (22) and Bentong (20). Of those drawn low, I like Folga (7) and Gimasha (6). One More Round is creeping up the handicap and is off 97 here but when trained in Ireland he was running off much higher marks. He’s also arguably better of further than the 5f of his last race in which he finished very strongly. He is a strong main hope for this race. I took 25/1 (win only) at Betfair last night and 16s EW elsewhere as I suspected he’d be the Pricewise nomination. Firenze and Bentong are too short in the betting for me to consider backing them but I like Desert Commander at 14/1. Folga And Gimasha are both available at 40/1, which will look very long if low numbers prove best.
I wouldn’t take the hard and fast rule that they should be going 10s the field and anyone betting at under 10/1 is mad. It’s all down to what should the true odds be, surely? If a punter genuinely believes his horse is a 5/1 shot, why shouldn’t he take 8/1?
In today’s race, though, I agree that Firenze and Bentong are too short so won’t carry any of my money although I think they are among the more likely candidates.
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Quote: from empty wallet on 6:53 am on Aug. 5, 2006[br]Stewards Cup should 10’s bar and anyone backing under that price has a slate loose. also anyone recommending/advising bets under that price has a slate loose too<br>
Which would immediately dismiss the first 4 in the betting, who are statiscally odds-on to contain the winner, and leave you just 26 to choose from each year. 5 winners in the last 10 years means you wouldn’t break even if you backed them all and they won at 50/1.<br> There may be a few slates loose, at least they still  have something to protect!:biggrin:
(Edited by reet hard at 10:57 am on Aug. 5, 2006)
Any chance Ed Dunlop’s Munaddam could out run his odds at around 70’s on betfair. He made a really good start for Ed Dunlop when second in a competitive 7f handicap at Lingfield, showing plenty of speed that day. In 2 subsequent starts he’s looked as though likely to be well suited by the drop back to 6f weakening after racing freely in the Victoria Cup and again taking a keen hold, though virtually last to come off the bridle behind Uhoomagoo in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting.
For the Stewards Cup, I go for a 4-5yo (3yo’s have a poor record) which is highly drawn.
My view on the age stat is that improving sprinters (ie those ahead of the h’cap) tend to be 3-5yo, but the 3yo’s just dont have the physique/experience to handle a charge like this.
High draw speaks for itself.
With these 2 rules, I came up with a list of 7 for the race, which had all the first 5.
Steve
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