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I am a Kent lad originally but served 25 years in the Army, now work for the MOD.
Moved up here to be closer to the ex wife, so my girls could see her more often, i’ve actually got used to it more now after 6 years! I miss the racing down South more than anything else.
Go to Epsom every year, Sandown 2 or 3 times a year and try to get to Goodwood, of the shiite up here i like Wetherby in the winter and York but that’s it really!
Well, the Fanshawe filly ran a lovely race but wasn’t good enough on the day.
Still an OK filly who will win her races in time.
GDC,i still stop off at Catterick now en-route to Scotland up the Great North Road,i have always had a soft spot for a low draw over 7f at the course,Trotter reckons its a white knuckle ride around there some days! The first course i visited as a kid and its never changed since!
Ginger,you have to laugh at the fact that
Definightly
and
Elzaam
are both rated 114.What do you think the handicapper will raise
Prohibit
to now after that legendary victory the other day?
I see the moneys coming in for
Activate
for Saturdays Plate at Newcastle,i would be cautious of any further rain falling between now and then as i am not convinced this fellows powers of resolution are conducive to the hustle and bustle of such a race,particularly on Soft ground,i am a big fan of the horse but i am convinced
Deauville flyer
with a 7lb pull for 3.5L and with conditions favouring him this time can show his true potential,thats if he actually gets in!
One thing is for sure if Activate is made to battle,he wont,he’ll come their travelling but will find zilch off the bridle,at 6/1 he is a super bet to lay in running as he should trade at Evs at least at some point.£100 win at 6/1 then £350 lay at Evs,guarantees a £250 profit win or lose!I enjoy racing at Catterick as i have got to know what trainers come to win and who are sending them for a day out. Also know Phil Makin well and get the odd nod from him. Cracking lad and one of the Norths best jockeys.
Agreed low draw and fast away horse required for 6f and 7f races, low draw over 5f UNLESS it is soft or heavy when they come stands side and a high draw is huge advantage, a lot of people forget this as the papers always say ‘low’ draw is favoured.
My mates got his 2yo running next wednesday (debut for O’Meara) so we are all going, should be a good day out hopefully.
KF: Have you seen Roger Varians comments on the Life website today?
Elzaam had a hard enough race at Ascot and they are looking forward to next season with him. Not a guaranteed runner at the moment and being considered for France NTO.
There’s only one July Cup GDC, Roger Varian knows the horse might never make it as a 4yo,what with injury etc,its 3 weeks between races and thats generally fine,the problem here is
Elzaam
having ‘Won’ last years Coventry did dissapoint at Newmarkets July meeting some 3 weeks later,my argument is,he was only a 2yo then,he is a much stronger 3yo who admittedly looks the type to make an even better 4yo,granted Good ground i reckon he’ll be there,its the obvious route and has been for many years.
Prohibit
would love a tilt at it,hard as steel that fellow,his trainer is a bit pessimistic about him running over 6f though,i would have thought he of all people can see this fellow has improved leaps and bounds this year and 6f wont be a problem nowadays! Which reminds me,come on Ginger,where,s this rating i’m waiting on,you cant hide forever!
By the way i’m always partial to a Beer or 2 GDC,Cheers!KF, Good luck with Deauville Flyer making the cut, as he does have a near perfect profile for the race.
I keep looking down the entries Merigo and its going to be a close call about him getting in,if i was a betting man i would say he’s 4/7 to miss it by one,if he does get in i hope Kieran gets the ride as he responds to his hardline style and being handicapped to beat all his previous conquerors he has to have a big chance if he gets the rub of the green and thats a big if too in this notoriously rough race.I wish i was as confident as i was last year!
Prohibit
would love a tilt at it,hard as steel that fellow,his trainer is a bit pessimistic about him running over 6f though,i would have thought he of all people can see this fellow has improved leaps and bounds this year and 6f wont be a problem nowadays!
Which reminds me,come on Ginger,where,s this rating i’m waiting on,you cant hide forever!
By the way i’m always partial to a Beer or 2 GDC,Cheers!Sorry, only just seen your question Kingy. Been at Newbury last night and Salisbury today.
It was in my opinion a below standard running of the King’s Stand and the Jubilee wasn’t much better. Star Witness is behind the very top sprinters in Australia, albeit young enough to improve. Same goes for the third Sweet Sanette in Hong Kong. Fourth home Overdose is nowhere near the form of his Abbeye "win" these days. Fifth, War Artist is an 8 year old on the downgrade. Sixth, Kingsgate Native ran the same as last year (good first run of the season before disappointing at Ascot). Seventh, Iver Bridge lad is nowhere near true Group 1 standard, only beaten around 4 lengths.
Switch jockeys with the first two home and you might have got a different result. Arnold quite sympethetic, possibly wanting an easier race to go for the Jubilee on the Saturday.
I myself would only rate Prohibit on 121, improving a few pounds. Had Sole Power, Astrophysical Jet or Kingsgate Native been at their best – Prohibit would probably not have won. But has the virtue of consistencey and deserves credit for taking his winning chance.
However, Prohibit will do well to add to this victory.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the response Ginger,you even sound like bloody Timeform in your assessment,bearing in mind Sole power was rated 114 before he beat Prohibit at Haydock and subsequently raised to 117 i personally would raise Prohibit 5lb to a mark of 118 for that victory particularly with Star Witness running off 116 and Kingsgate Native 115,mind you my ratings are to the official handicapper,i bet yours are from bloody Timeform!
I know i keep putting him up on here and he’s never won yet but i really do fancy my horse tomorrow,i tried to snaffle the 18/1 offered by Bet365 earlier this evening but they would only lay me 14/1,i have since gone in again at 12/1 as for the first time in almost a year he’s getting his favoured soft ground,the last time he ran on it was off a mark of 91,tomorrow he runs off 80,fingers crossed yet again!
Collateral Damage
£50 e/w 14/1 Bet365 3,20pm Newcastle
£50 e/w 12/1 Bet365.
£8000HI KF
Gonna follow your lead (but to smaller stakes) and do 2 e/w single CD and DF (Plate) and one e/w dble with B365 being best odds on both though see CD is now 10/1!!!! Can’t believe it was 18/1 when WH only go 15/2 (With no hint of blue on this shorter price on oddschecker!!!!)
yd
Thanks for the response Ginger,you even sound like bloody Timeform in your assessment,bearing in mind Sole power was rated 114 before he beat Prohibit at Haydock and subsequently raised to 117 i personally would raise Prohibit 5lb to a mark of 118 for that victory particularly with Star Witness running off 116 and Kingsgate Native 115,mind you my ratings are to the official handicapper,i bet yours are from bloody Timeform!
Not from Timeform, but on the same scale.
In Timeform Racehorses they had Star Witness on 121, Sole Power 125.
I personally rate Star Witness alongside Prohibit as the former did not get the best of rides.
If Sole Power and Prohibit met again I’d rate Sole Power ahead. However, the Irish horse needs a firm surface and Prohibit is the more consistent. So betting-wise they’d be quite close together.
Value Is Everything
One thing is for sure if Activate is made to battle,he wont,he’ll come their travelling but will find zilch off the bridle,at 6/1 he is a super bet to lay in running as he should trade at Evs at least at some point.£100 win at 6/1 then £350 lay at Evs,guarantees a £250 profit win or lose!
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