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“If you think about it logically somebody needs to turn this race into a stamina test if they want to try and get Galopin beat”
That isn’t going to bother GDC as it was a stamina test last year and he won.
It was not a real “stamina test last year”, Mike.
Even allowing for GDC being the best staying chaser for some time…
The time of the Gold Cup – beating Racing Post standard time (“fast by 0.54”) – strongly suggests the going was not as testing as as you might think of the official “soft”.So it is possible we could have a far greater stamina test this year.
Trouble with Corach Rambler is being a hold up horse, he can’t ensure a fast pace for himself…
And anyway, the harder the race Rambler gets at Cheltenham the less likely he is of running to form at Aintree. So not sure they’d even want a true test.Value Is EverythingGDC obviously has the best credentials by far…
But I do think some British horses have a better chance of being placed (or even winning if GDC runs poorly) than many people seem to think… And I am not talking about Shishkin, whose chance – at least of winning – has I believe been exaggerated.Bravemansgame has an article on the home page which seems to believe he’s a major contender and that he’s run well this season. That’s going a bit far… But I do think he ran better than some give him credit for in the King George. The pace was sound if not strong and they “got racing” some way out – probably too far out… Which imo led to two of the more prominent runners – Allaho and Bravemansgame – being beaten by Hewick. A hold up horse who hadn’t over exerted himself at the time when the pace was overly strong – just before the home turn. Taking into consideration Allaho and Bravemansgame raced together it is possible to take Hewick out of the equation and rate the second and third as pretty much running to form… And rate Hewick a little less than those two for being flattered by the run of the race. Shishkin would probably have won the King George without the mishap, but he’s a lot shorter in the market, has if anything a bigger question mark on stamina and is far more temperamental. ie Less likely to show his form, especially in the caldron that is Cheltenham. Fact is Bravemansgame ran well in the Gold Cup last year when second to GDC. Horses running well at the meeting before is always a big plus. The one proviso though, would be I don’t think he wants an out and out test of stamina. As my previous post says, last year was NOT genuine soft ground. For this reason I’ll hold off betting until nearer the day.
L’Homme Presse ran this weekend on a right handed track, over an inadequate trip… And even more importantly when the yard is in poor form. I’d put a line through the race as far as his chance goes. Judged by some of the comments on TRF he’s been written off too soon, although bookies haven’t pushed him out that much as yet… Possible might drift further. If Venitia is in far better form come the middle of March I’d expect a return to form. Trouble is he’s a bit fragile, so not really an ante-post proposition anyway.
I’ll also be expecting a much better show from Corach Rambler than he’s put up this season so far. Like many of the yard, he comes to himself in the Spring and we know he loves Cheltenham. On form he has a little bit to find but the fact that when victorious he idles so badly in front means we don’t really know how much he has in hand. That said, can’t really see him being good enough to “win” this… But possible some will try and beat GDC and Corach rambles home late to take second… May need conditions to place an emphasis on stamina, but couldn’t resist a bit of 15/1 in the “betting without” market.
Value Is EverythingI have backed The Real Whacker at 33/1 in the Without GDC market.
I accept he needs to hugely improve on what he has done this season but his last start was more encouraging. He is a good jumper, usually runs well at Cheltenham and has festival winning form.
I thought 33/1 was a fraction too big.
It’s as wide open a race as I can remember for sometime! If any of the first 8 or so in the betting won I wouldn’t be in the least surprised.
That said, BMG is undoubtedly being overlooked. And if he gets his ground Hewick is a 3/1 shot 2nd fav in my opinion.
The Real Whacker is one that can be a good jumper CAS, can hit one hard too. Could be under-estimated as he likes the Spring and Cheltenham.
Front running may be important to him though. Two impressive rounds of jumping came when making all.
In the “betting without” market I prefer a hold up horse, as the prominent ones often go after the favourite and the hold up horses can pick up the pieces…I was disappointed The Real Whacker hasn’t been entered in the Grand National.
Value Is Everything“It’s as wide open a race as I can remember for sometime! If any of the first 8 or so in the betting won I wouldn’t be in the least surprised.”
It’s a one horse race ;o)
Mike,
I think TC means if you take the fav out and / or consider who’s going to be second / placed… it is wide open. We were talking about the “betting without” market after all.Value Is EverythingNassalam out and confirmed Grand National bound
VF x
Forgot update this last week as they said he will take his chance on soft ground
Mike I admire your confidence and GDC is going to take an awful lot of beating based on recent form.
If the fences were a sterner test I’d definitely be a layer of him. For all that his jumping has improved a ton this season.
But odds on is something I very rarely get involved with. There’s usually something to take it on with. And in this version of the GC there are a number of other options!
Galopin Des Champs’s jumping has definitely improved since he put in one of the shoddiest rounds of jumping I have ever seen from a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
But, given the short odds, it might be worth asking yourself why that might be.
His last two wins have been on Soft ground in times 46.5s and 42.5s slower than standard.
He was simply travelling a lot more slowly than when breaking standard in his Gold Cup win.
If we get a dry March and it’s quicker ground again, they will go faster and his jumping might be vulnerable again.
And this is a horse whose Cheltenham Chases form figures are: F1.
He’s only 50/50 to get Soft ground and, if he doesn’t, you could argue he’s only 50/50 to even get round.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"What is the forecast for Cheltenham , 3 weeks today so there should be some indication
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GDC likely sit handier this time, be more concentrated with his jumping, then get away from them at the business end. He’s won grade 1s on nice ground and soft ground, stays no problem, course and distance winner, never fallen in open company, and as an 8 year old should be at his peak.
GDC’s two Leopardstown Grade 1’s this season were run slower than the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But Cheltenham being 2 furlongs further and on a stiffer undulating course, not significantly so.
Cheltenham Gold Cup an average of 15.41 seconds per furlong.
Savill’s Chase an average of 16.13 seconds per furlong.
Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup 15.96 seconds per furlong.Although it is possible the ground had something to do with GDC’s improved jumping… I agree with Mike, his improved jumping is more likely to do with racing prominently. That said, I still do not believe his jumping is without flaws and horses do not need to fall in order to spoil their chance, a bad mistake can be enough to make the difference… And yes GDC has fallen in “open company”, it was a grade 1.
For me, the question should be: GDC stayed 3m2f70yrds at the stiff Cheltenham course on proper good-soft last year when held up…
Will he stay 3m2f70yrds at the stiff Cheltenham course on what might be softer ground when racing prominently?
imo The answer is Probably, but it is not certain. So that possibility of not staying needs to taken into account when assessing prices.Value Is Everything
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