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“when he was Mullins’ third string in the betting. I take your point about GDC’s price Ian”
This is the key thing for me – Al Boum Photo was a big price, this horse is 7/4 ante-post for a race over a trip he’s never attempted and when possible opponents include last year’s winner, still a relatively young horse, rated 180 after bolting in last March.
I think you’ll find safer bets at 7/4 most days of any week.
Tremendously exciting horse, but very short now on what he’s actually proven.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"As a 172 rated novice he was always going to be very short
There’s not been a staying novice that highly rated moving into open company for some time I’d imagine
Al boum photo for comparison was 159
Even monkfish only hit 164 as a novice
He has a higher novice chase rating than both vautour and douvan
The sky is the limit for GDC and he was one of the horses I was most looking forward to seeing
In him and Constitution hill I’m hoping we have 2 180+ horses on our hands
I definitely wouldn’t back him at 7/4 though
Im struggling to understand why bravemansgame is so big here , I know we have a crazy favourite but 6s , it’s huge , I’m sorry he should be favourite , I’m going to be playing this while I can
“I’m sorry he should be favourite”
I dont think so.
– best form on flat tracks
– stamina to prove at Cheltenham
– not matched his Winter form in the Spring up to now.I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s another Clan Des Obeaux type.
Mike, I thought it highly significant that one of the first things Cobden said post race was how the horse had finally learned to race behind the bridle; that’ll be a very strong asset along with his jumping. As to flat tracks, his highest Racing Post Rating over hurdles was 154 (Newbury). Next best (joint) was at Cheltenham. He’s yet to race on anything but flat tracks over fences. He goes straight to the Gold Cup and makes plenty appeal to me EW at 10s.
“– not matched his Winter form in the Spring up to now.”
This is the main point for me being happy to not back him
2 years in a row he’s flopped in the spring
Go for it Steeplechasing if he rocks your boat. Cobden also said he went wide and not switch inside because the horse likes to have room. Will need to be a thorough stayer going wide in a Gold Cup and winning. If it was soft at Cheltenham i’d favour L’homme Presse to reverse it going back left handed on a stiff track. If he would have finished today he’d have been about 5 or 6 lengths behind i reckon which would’ve been just fine going that way round on a sharp track. I’ll stick with the Mullins horse until he gets beat.
I think 10/1 is fair if you can get it (Bet365 would only let me have £1).
An extended 3m2f round and undulating track like Cheltenham is a significantly greater stamina test than 3m on a park course and Softer ground wouldn’t help.
But if we get a dry spring and it’s Good ground his chances of lasting home are improved.
On Softer ground, I’d fancy L’Homme Presse and Protektorat to beat him.
A Plus Tard would still set the bar on last year’s OR 180-rated storming victory if returning to form and Galopin Des Champs looks a potential monster, but at the odds 10s is alright.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“As for stamina … Look at the 2nd and the faller , he proved his stamina”
Not yet HDLG. Clan Des Obeaux had Native River in 3rd when winning his first King George. Cheltenham was different gravy. Native River reversed the placings ;o)
Nichols knows BMG hasnt really performed at Cheltenham, but to be fair to the horse that was nearly 2 years ago.
I’d fancy L’Homme Presse for the GC ahead of BMG; his fall today didnt look a heavy one, but his confidence could be knocked. Do u think a horse will remember his last? Like, he approaches the last in the 2023 GC and thinks “F### i messed up last time out at Kempton; best get this one right!”🤣.I placed an early antepost on APT at 10s the other week. Bit of a gamble, but will find out this Wednesday if it’s a shrewd punt or a complete waste of money🙄
He won’t remember but he,’ll have GC horses around him …something he hasn’t had yet , a 13/8 should be near bullet proof …a Kauto or Denman , please show that form ? , BMG has been a long term project , look at where the likes of Eldorado Allen and Ahoy fin today , in the Charlie Hall BMG wasn getting weight from EA , he,s destroyed him today off level …
Wilts, it was actually an unseat today, arguably a pretty soft one, though that’s always easy to say in an armchair. Since 1997, only 3 Gold Cups have been run on soft ground – all the others have been faster going. Historically, Bravemansgame is much more likely to get his ground than L’Homme Presse is to get it soft/heavy.
“Historically, Bravemansgame is much more likely to get his ground than L’Homme Presse is to get it soft/heavy.”
That’s a key reason why I think 10/1 is alright.
Back in the day, it was often testing ground at Cheltenham, you’d need to stay 3m4f to win it – horses like Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats and The Thinker (all past “National” winners of one sort or another) won it.
On Good ground, a 3m Park course chaser had more chance of getting home.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Most of BMG’s past wins have been in small fields; not sure he’ll like the hustle & bustle of a GC and still have doubts in my mind about his suitability for Cheltenham.
And i’m norm a big Nichols The Trainer fan and punter.
It’s all about opinions though isnt it? Until The Day itself, and race completion.
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