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Jack im sure Nicholls can get him fit again for March , as for this he doesn’t perform at Cheltenham angle , thats still to be proven , what is fact is he,s a fast improving young horse , I really don’t don’t see why LMP should reverse the form , fair enough if BMG was in front and then was barely hanging on , at the end of the KG he was the one attacking and staying on , he,s shown the best form , no trainer has better GC form , more positives than negatives , I can see the Stattler angle but I just don’t think he,s classy enough , I know he was trying to give Indo weight but he was backed last time as if they expected him to win , I’m sure Henry left work on Indo so I was disappointed in him , it’s a bit like The national winner , could see him getting a place
Of course he can get him fit again for March- but Nicholls highlighted the target for BMG a long time ago. Venetia Williams announced on the 16/12 that LHP would run. That’s a big difference and she stated she can’t just keep working him, he has to race- that doesn’t sound to me like a horse primed for his life to win a KG. She also stated how Kempton is nothing like his ideal track.
I’d fancy LHP to show himself in a different light in a Gold Cup whether that’s good enough to win is another thing.
I think Stattler’s classy enough alright. While Indo clearly likes a run to get fit, i’d say he was straighter at Tramore than normal. An RPR of 169 on his reappearance is good and i’d only fancy him to improve even more now.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack what about the negative vibes from the stable after the KG fall , Pricewise mentioned it , can’t think of to many horses winning a GC after a fall , I believe Stattler has 8lbs to find ( again m going by Price wise ) with the market principals , this maybe 10 lbs plus if the principles improve , I can’t have that really , he,s this year’s Galvin surely
He may not win it (though Don Cossack won after falling in the King George), however there is a case to be made that he can finish in front of BMG on a course he has shown to like.
Trainer reported L’homme Presse to be fine so not sold on the negative vibes, they just hadn’t discussed where to run next. The article is here. Also mentions low sun as a possible reason for jumping left.
The low sun is utter codswhallop! The horse jumped noticeably left for a lot of the race and he was the only one that did so (that I recall anyway)
If low sun was an issue it’s an issue for them all.
I don’t want it to sound like I’m totally poo pooing l’homme as I really do rate him and I do expect him to run better in the GC than the KG but he won’t be carrying any of my money.
I’ll be sticking with APT and probably a saver on BMG if he gets his ground.
HDLG- Stattler started this season off 158 and upped his mark to 163 after Tramore.
BMG started off 161 and upped his to 172 after two runs.
I don’t think there’s that big a difference there. BMG after 1 run 164, and Stattler 163?
Wouldn’t concern me too much, as there’s clearly going to be progression in Stattler he’s had 4 chase starts lol. BMG, 7.
Jumping left is no concern for LHP- he’s done it in pretty much every race he’s raced right handed.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!To be pedantic lhomme presse didn’t fall in the King George he unseated
Not like he hit the deck and you’d be worried how that effected him mentally
There’s no guarantee he will Jack , there more 160 horses out there than 170+ ones , will he def come here also , he,s still got a Ryanair entry
There isn’t HDLG, but there’s also no guarantee BMG will prove he likes Cheltenham. Stattler has proven this already, and Minella Indo isn’t a bad yardstick, with more formlines even last year than LHP or BMG.
WPM enters horses left, right and centre i’d make it a massive price he shows up in a Ryanair. Not even a consideration for me unless he stinks the place out on his next run, even then i’d say 3m+ is his bag.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“I believe Stattler has 8lbs to find ( again m going by Price wise ) with the market principals , this maybe 10 lbs plus if the principles improve , I can’t have that really , he,s this year’s Galvin surely”
As Jack said, Stattler was put on 158 after his NH chase win which was his 3rd start over fences. Galvin was 154 after his NH chase win which was his 9th start over fences. Galvin still improved a stone the following season, despite being a smallish horse. If Stattler is this season’s Galvin and improves a stone from the start of the season to the GC, which he has every right to do being a bigger, scopier more lightly raced horse, then he’ll be in the low 170s so likely to be right in the mix. He’s also less ground dependent that Galvin who has never won a chase on anything softer than yielding.
Still convinced Minella Indo will place at worst. 40/1 was an insulting price but he has been clipped into 16s after beating Stattler on NYD, albeit in receipt of 8lbs. MI is a Cheltenham specialist with form figures of 1212 at the Festival.
HDB horses running like drains on every attempt in Britain this season though which is a genuine concern but he’ll surey give me a good spin at 40s.
BMG is looking a very very tempting bet at 8’s now!
I’ve got APT in some multiples at 10’s so to see him half the price now despite not having run since he was made 10’s after only one horse has been withdrawn is both pleasantly surprising and perplexing.
Looking at the market there are some terrible prices flying about..
Of the remaining if i had to part with cash it would still be Stattler and maybe even Conflated.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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