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He may prove me wrong, butI’d be surprised if Cape Teibulation was good enough to win this.
Whilst I’ve backed IC for sentimental avenue, Silviniaco Conti is my main hope in this, think he’s all class.
Course form is obviously very important Pants but I do think it’s more of a bonus more than a necessity when backing a particular horse. SC I think should be fine around Cheltenham judging by his only run there and we pretty much know he’ll stay if any of his runs this year are anything to go by. I just think there are more question marks about the first two in the betting than him that’s all. It’s hard to gauge what the form of the Hennessey will amount to imo, I dont think anything that’s happenned since is very conclusive and of course the form of SDC can be tied into that through Tidal Bay. I think the form of Tidal Bay is key. Just how good is he? I guess we won’t really know until the form lines collide in about a months time. My bets are on now anyway and, win or lose, just looking forward finding out.
Of course the best outcome (although not for my pocket) would be seeing Imperial Commander bolting past them all up the hill and saying "remember me?"
I would lend greater credence to course and indeed festival than yourself Andrew but you may well be right as SC does have a big chance. Keep coming back to Bobsworth myself, have backed him last two festivals so maybe there is some blind loyalty there but only time will tell! Thought he won The Hennessy with some to spare and the direct form does tie up pretty well with SDC through Tiday Bay, would havge liked a ‘prep’ run to be honest but sure Hendo will have him spot on. Agree entirely ref IC, love this horse, am on at 33/1 e/w so hopefully of a place at least, fingers crossed!
I think Sir Des Champs looks solid for the GC. Was staying on well when just beaten in the Lexus and was hardly flat out when beating Flemenstar in the Hennessey! Plus 2 wins from 2 at Cheltenham is a massive plus!
I have huge respect for Bobsworth, however cant help feeling he wont be 100% after only 1 run this season. His fabulous festival form past 2 seasons have been on the back of a few runs and I just think his different curtailed approach this year will see him ultimately come up a little short when push comes to a shove on the big day (remember Hurricane Fly last year?).
SDC has been just a little short of zip this season, both in his jumping at times and also his pace, he will no doubt have been trained for the race but will need to step up to win.
Now thats the first 2 in the betting out the road we are left with the third fav, S Conti. He has done everything asked of him this season on soft ground, jumped very well and galloped on strongly at the end of each race. He finished last season with a thrashing of Champion Court at Aintree on good ground, much more impressively beating CC than SDC did at Cheltenham and his only run around Cheltenham was a top class novice hurdle run. Arguably the best jockey/trainer combo in the race, need I say more!…
Oh post war can any statisticians advise has any horse won the Gold Cup on its 2nd outing of the season , or indeed seasonal reappearance?the more I look at this race the more sir des champs is screaming out as something of a certainty.
just took a look at his jewson win and it was every bit as impressive as I recalled- he jumped fast and fluent, attacking his fences in a brave fashion that few chasers do at cheltenham and showed a terrific turn of foot up the hill. basically everything you are looking for in a future gold cup winner. if he’s in the same form this year, he hacks up for me, no question.
of course he’s had his ups and downs this season, but the fact he won last time out is very encouraging, he hits all the trends perfectly and maybe the winner is staring us in the face?
I’m a big fan of bobs worth but as others have pointed out his prep has been far from ideal- ok he goes fresh but take a good look at his hennessy win and it wasn’t all plain sailing- at times he looked tentative and rusty at his fences, and had to be scrubbed along to keep up. He won’t be able to get away with that in the big one. also as pointed out on another thread henderson has a dreadful record at the festival with horses that haven’t had a recent run.
that may be because he’s an old-fashioned trainer who ideally likes to get a run into his horse’s. one of the two who won for him from a long break was long run, but as tough as he is, I think he’ll struggle to resist the longer brigade, and his preparation hasn’t been ideal either. As he’s getting older, I think he’ll be more difficult to get fit, and in any case stats are against a horse regaining the gold cup. the fact kauto was the first horse to do so proves how tough it is.
as for the only other main contender, silviano conti, he’s one of the most improved horses in training, but for me has it all to prove at cheltenham. basically he’s been doing all his winning on flat tracks and will probably hack up at aintree afterwards, but he won’t be carrying my money.
actually scrap all that
just had a look at bobs rsa win and there’s something of the warrior about him. hard to discount him really.
anyway i’m pretty sure the winner comes from those two!
I cannot see how cheekpieces are going to benefit Long Run. His jumping can be chancy enough under pressure without a new piece of kit to think about . . . risky to introduce them in Gold Cup imo
Barry Geraghty: " Sir Des Champs is the most overrated horse in training."
Can’t get away from First Lieutenant although he is well held by Bobs Worth twice, think Silviniaco Conti will be a massive danger to the fav if the turf is a bit soft on the day. There the 3 imo that will be involved unless Long Run can find his form of 2010-11.
Think First Lieutenant has more ability than Sir Des Champs, just does he get the 3m2f
Silviniaco Conti is the lay of the meeting. They dodged The RSA last year because he wasn’t a ‘Cheltenham horse’, and have ran him on flat tracks all season to compensate. Nicholls is only running him because he doesn’t have a horse for the race.
Silviniaco Conti is the lay of the meeting. They dodged The RSA last year because he wasn’t a ‘Cheltenham horse’, and have ran him on flat tracks all season to compensate. Nicholls is only running him because he doesn’t have a horse for the race.
Gotta be risky business laying a 5/1 shot that obviously has a lot of class such as Silviniaco Conti. I thought they swerved the RSA last year to protect their investment, look what it did to Grand Crus…it ruined him as it has done quite a few other young and promising horses in the past. Paul Nicholls was saying he might do the same this year with Rocky Creek. After SC’s Betfair Chase win, the only thing on Paul Nicholls mind was keeping in one piece FOR Cheltenham, weighing up if to run him again or keep him fresh. Plus up until a few weeks ago, Tidal Bay was also a possibility. Surely it makes more sense to simply back something else if you dont fancy him. I dont think there’s anything to suggest he won’t act at Cheltenham, a class act such as SC should act on any course imo.
sil conti is a class act, jumps and travels like a dream. to say he’s the lay of the meeting is just moronic.
Have to agree with those sentiments, SC is my main hope, his win at Newbury had all the hallmarks of a GC winner the way he jumped, travelled and battled at the end to run out a decisive winner.
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The more I think about this race the less I want to bet on it!
Will probably avoid putting on anything other than pocket change
If I was forced to however, I’d probably go SDC, Long Run e/w and Cape Tribulation e/w
Hi new to the forum but love my racing and just wanted to air my view on the Gold Cup. I have narrowed it down to Silvinaco Conti or Long Run. Whilst I agree there is a negative about SC not having the form in the book at Cheltenham and Nicholls last chase winner was Kauto Star in 2009 I think? I still believe the horse is IMPROVING rapidly. He has travelled well and jumped well in all his races this yr and even seems to possibly have more up his sleeve IMO. I thought Nicholls appeared almost struggling to contain his delight after his last run and even said they have left a bit to work with on him as well. I also struggle to discount Long Run as hes never been out of the top three in any race. I accept he may be not quite as good as he was but still seems to find something when he needs to.He has the Cheltenham form and Im sure he will be ready for his big day. He does appear to be labouring at times and we all know about his jumping frailties but he still seems to produce a placed finish at worst. It makes you wonder if he did have one race where his jumping was slick (unlikely admittedly) how easily he may have won previous races . At Long Runs price I think he is good EW value. It would be ridiculous to suggest that these 2 are the only ones with a chance as realistically there are 5 or 6 possible winners. I still believe SDC can play a massive role if in the form of last yr but Im not convinced he is and Cape Tribulation could run a big race as a big improver. Time will tell but its certainly no easy betting heat. Good Luck to all who have a bet!!
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