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After great deliberation, the final conclusion is that Bobs Worth wins the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He’s the Fav for a reason, after watching the Hennessey again, I don’t think the weights with Tidal Bay would have made a difference and Bobs Worth certainly wasn’t stopping.Lack of big field, Cheltenham and festival form puts me off Silviniaco Conti and to be honest, I love nothing more than cheering Barry up that Cheltenham hill!
As far as Tidal Bay is concerned, I think running him in the World Hurdle is the correct decision, he has a far more realistic chance of winning in a less competitive race in which the owner have a great history in with the legend Inglis Drever.
Hi RedRiot,
Appreciate what you say about Bobs Worth beating SIlviniaco but he was not right that day as were a number of Nicholls horses (also appreciate BW returning from breathing operation).
Most of SC best races have been on left hand tracks so can’t agree he’s better right handed.
Rich,
Agree with your sentiments and think the Cheltenham fences will play to SC strengths.
Anyway, it’s shaping up to be a belter and good luck to all
but Bobs Worth already has had his head in front of him before and that was going right handed which played into SC’s hands more than Bob Worth and cant see a turn in form there.
And before that it was the other way round.
I think Sc has improved a lot since then, starting at aintree. simply travelled better and we all know how the great trainer is adept at gradually finding the very best for a talented animal.
I think BW could be well suited by cheltenham with that grind up the hill but Sc has been a little underrated until now
I know the best trainers get them fit etc, but i still like the fact that SC will be having a run as opposed to the long lay off
I’ve never underrated SC and the 4-6 for tomorrow is crazy considering some of the short prices we’ve seen. He’ll win easy.
Think it’ll be SC, SDC and BW vying for favouritism on the day and BW will just win that battle as punters latch on to Henderson as he goes for his 50th winner.
conti very impressive today. the total professional and for me he’s the most improved horse this season. the way he just jumps so well and hacks around on the bridle fills any backer with confidence.
but the gold cup is a totally different test. he’s been winning so well on flat tracks, but is he going to be so dominant at cheltenham? somehow I have my doubts. I could be wrong but there’s something of the flat track bully about him.
sir des champs doesn’t jump nearly as well as the nicholls horse, but the fact that he won at leopardstown today when cheltenham will suit him far better, must be a huge boost for his chances.
if sir des champs is within two lengths going to the last, he’ll win.
but the fact that he won at leopardstown today when cheltenham will suit him far better, must be a huge boost for his chances.
That doesnt make sense to me. He simply beat a non stayer and didnt really take the eye in doing so. We learnt nothing new
I dont quite understand negativity regarding SC over undulating courses. Hes won at Wetherby which isnt too flat and over hurdles performed very well at cheltenham of course
Can’t decide on this race at the moment, so have done Captain Chris e.w. until I do. He goes well at Cheltenham and is coming back to form, so I’m hopeful of a big run. Probably won’t win, but worth a punt. I do like the look of SDC, but also Bob’s Worth is very good at Cheltenham. Also can’t rule out Long Run and Silviniaco Conti.Oh and if I were the Caseys, I would run Flemenstar in the Gold Cup. The reasons being: if he goes in the Champion, he will be made to look extremely average by SS and the Ryanair is ridiculously competetive. I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility, that he could go out in front, bowl along into a good lead and rocking horse his way to the finish line, before they could catch him.
Well it looks like Flemenstar is out of Cheltenham completely. Seems he had a lung infection.
I’m all aboard the Sir Des Champs barmy army however the races SDC has ran this season haven’t told us a lot about him. They have told us a lot about Flemenstar though.
We know that the horses only target this season is March and that the better ground (hopefully) should bring better elevation in the jumping.
It’s a lazy horse but I think he will have more gears to work through if in touching distance coming round the bend.
i have had a good look at this race the one ive been with all season for the race is sir des champs but one i have a niggling feeling will run well at a price is cape tribulation he likes cheltenham i have a feeling the race will suit him and i would imagine he will have dennis o regan on board who seems to get on well with him i know he needs to step up on bare form but he just looks to be improving and i can see him running a big
Immaterial now but flemenstar was never going to last out a gc distance bowling along in front. A total lay.
Sdc has looked workmanlike to me and excuses and reasons why have been piling up. Gc winners have to show a bit more sparkle throughout the season for me ( and they usually have haven’t they?) and I’m not entirely convinced about the gong argument. I think he’s far too short
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No matter how many times I think about this race I can’t get away from the value in Long Run (7/1) and Cape Tribulation (33/1)
I see nearly all the 25’s about Captain Chris has disappeared with a couple of bookies now going 16’s. Think his run in the Ascot chase will put him spot on for the big one and has had what would seem on the face of it, an ideal preperation. If he hadnt got the second last all wrong it would have been quite a finish imo much like when Bobs Worth came up against Cue Card over the same sort of trip at Newbury yet prices are poles apart?
Interesting to read Cormacks’ Cheltenham stats regarding Paul Nicholls runners. Would seem to point Silviniaco Contis way. Would be my idea of the winner if I could only back one to win. As it is I’m greedy and more of an each way backer at the festival so I’ll stick with the Captain.
While on the subject of SC, I cant remember a horse so impressive in each of his runs leading up to the Gold Cup and not being favourite, Bobs Worth wins the Hennesey recieving nearly half a stone from Tidal Bay with that being his only run this season, Sir Des Champs only just gets the better of what we assume now is a non stayer in Flemenstar (at the third attempt) and yet both are ahead of SC who has won 3 graded races this year and won them all in style????? Madness.I see nearly all the 25’s about Captain Chris has disappeared with a couple of bookies now going 16’s. Think his run in the Ascot chase will put him spot on for the big one and has had what would seem on the face of it, an ideal preperation. If he hadnt got the second last all wrong it would have been quite a finish imo much like when Bobs Worth came up against Cue Card over the same sort of trip at Newbury yet prices are poles apart?
Interesting to read Cormacks’ Cheltenham stats regarding Paul Nicholls runners. Would seem to point Silviniaco Contis way. Would be my idea of the winner if I could only back one to win. As it is I’m greedy and more of an each way backer at the festival so I’ll stick with the Captain.
While on the subject of SC, I cant remember a horse so impressive in each of his runs leading up to the Gold Cup and not being favourite, Bobs Worth wins the Hennesey recieving nearly half a stone from Tidal Bay with that being his only run this season, Sir Des Champs only just gets the better of what we assume now is a non stayer in Flemenstar (at the third attempt) and yet both are ahead of SC who has won 3 graded races this year and won them all in style????? Madness.All good points Andrew, not sure it’s madness though, more to do with ‘course’ form, both Bobs and SDC have won at each of the last two Festivals, we know they handle the track, we know they won’t be found wanting up the hill, can we say the same of SC? If we could he’d be fave for sure but of course at the moment we can’t, shaping up to be a great race.
Course form is obviously very important Pants but I do think it’s more of a bonus more than a necessity when backing a particular horse. SC I think should be fine around Cheltenham judging by his only run there and we pretty much know he’ll stay if any of his runs this year are anything to go by. I just think there are more question marks about the first two in the betting than him that’s all. It’s hard to gauge what the form of the Hennessey will amount to imo, I dont think anything that’s happenned since is very conclusive and of course the form of SDC can be tied into that through Tidal Bay. I think the form of Tidal Bay is key. Just how good is he? I guess we won’t really know until the form lines collide in about a months time. My bets are on now anyway and, win or lose, just looking forward finding out.
Of course the best outcome (although not for my pocket) would be seeing Imperial Commander bolting past them all up the hill and saying "remember me?"
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