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I think we’ll see a changing of the guard next year in the 3-mile chase division. The brilliant Kauto Star will most probably be retired and Long Run doesn’t look good enough anymore. Whether he was flattered in last year’s Gold Cup and King George is open to question, but I think his level of form has dropped. I didn’t think last year’s Gold Cup was strong but he definitely looks a different horse to the one that whizzed around Kempton last January.
Synchronised has been impressive his last two runs but I don’t think he’ll be able to fend off what looks like an extremely strong bunch of novices.
For me the obvious challenger is Sir Des Champs. This horse has it all imo. He’s an excellent jumper, has bags of speed and finds plenty off the bridle. He just keeps finding and finding, and I’m of the opinion that he had plenty in hand in the Jewson and he won as he liked. He’s done everything asked of him so far and is rightfully favorite for next year’s race.
Bobs Worth is another big player. I think First Lieutenant would have been closer to him in the RSA had he not been keen early on and think on another day we could see another result. I think they’re very closely matched and two really likable horses. They’re both bound to be thereabouts and are the obvious candidates from the RSA. The other one who must not be forgotten is Last Instalment. If the ground is the same next year as it was yesterday he could well be favorite come the day.
Sir Des Champs is the selection.
I think the reason that people are so quick to criticise this year’s Gold Cup is, frankly, last year’s novices were a bit ‘meh’.
However, this year’s novices all look a heck of a lot more promising.
I’m going to avoid Sir Des Champs and, at this incredibly early stage, look at a horse who, like this year’s winner, has shown a ridiculous amount of improvement over the last year.
It’s a bit of a long shot but, considering he’ll probably get the longer trip, and that we still don’t know just how much improvement is left in him…step forward…Hunt Ball.
More to be added over the next 12 months!
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
5Legs: Interesting selection and will without doubt make a film IF this extremely doubtful result was to occur. Hope you are on at 50s and very good luck. I love these rags to riches stories, had a nice EW bet on the PLI (so annoyed for not backinh him win only!) but can he improve much more? If you listen to trainer and owner then yes but not for me. I’d love though to see him line up next year after having another excellent season, I for one do not think he is finished yet this season
SDC has it all, his positives far outweigh any negatives that will be dragged up. His jumping is imperious, possibly the best from a novice seen at the festival in a long time, he also has pace and obviously an abundance of stamina. Mr Mullins is of the opinion that the further this lovely horse goes the better!
First Lieutenant and Bobs Worth will hopefully improve and stay fit and well to make a superb season, Last Instalment is very good as is Bog Warrior but obviously that one requires soft/heavy ground.
SDC is awesome now and can only get better with age IMO, 12s has been accepted from Billys and I will be backing First Lieutenant ante post as well.
Apologies Tommy! I did actually look to see if anyone had put up a thread too believe it or not!
The first two in the RSA and Sir Des Champs – no suprise if they were 1-2-3 at Cheltneham next year.
But in what order?
Two names spring to mind immediately when it comes to novices.
Namely Grand Crus and Peddler’s Cross who bitterly disappointed at the Festival.
While it is very easy to make an excuse for Peddlers Cross after his set back things are a bit hazy when it comes to Grand Crus who was withdrawn from his intended prep race prior to the RSA. There must be a good chance he wasn’t quite right going into the RSA and was running on a wing and a prayer.
For me with those two running so badly it leaves a huge doubt in my mind about just how good Bob’s Worth and SDS really are.
Bob’s Worth certainly wouldn’t get within a fence of Long Run RSA winner or not. He simply is not in the same league. A year on he could improve but in time his RSA form beating First Lieutenant may not be that much better than his 2nd to Invictus.
He does stay well which was a huge asset to him at the festival but a Gold Cup horse? That I doubt very very much. I expect to see him run in the likes of the Hennessy and maybe the National in the future but he is a tad on the slow side for a Gold Cup IMO
SDS is a nice horse but his win over Champion Court doesn’t read anywhere near good enough to be thinking Gold Cup’s just yet.
He basically won a 2 horse race at the Festival with PC dropping out very early. He beat Champion Court who is a nice chaser but we’re talking about a horse that was slaughtered by both Join Together and Grand Crus so he has beat very little.
Other novices such as Al Ferof, Hunt Ball, Invictus, Bog Warrior, Peddler’s Cross, Grand Crus and maybe even Flemenstar and Cue Card if they stay have as good if not better claims to Gold Cup fame.
As things stand they all have massive improvement to find to be bothering the likes of Synchronised and Long Run and for me the one novice who looks most likely to go to the top is Last Installment who was forced to miss Cheltenham.
Hurdy: You seem to be getting your horses and jockeys mixed up mate
SDS = jockey
SDC = horse
I think peddlers cross will be sent back over hurdles. he looks all at sea over fences.
as mordin points out in his column, sir des champs is the steve davis of horse racing, boring but reliable. he gets the job done and if he continues his rate of progress then he’ll be hard to beat.
I certainly think it’ll be a novice who steps up next year as long run looks on the way down and can anyone really see sychronised as a dual gold cup winner? amazed he won one.
I would like to ask Hurdygurdyman why he thinks Bobs Worth is short of pace? This horse has a fine turn of foot around Cheltenham. He has beaten no less a horse than Rock on Ruby (now didn’t he win the Champion Hurdle?) and Cue Card one of the best Bumper winners in my memory.
He did beat Rock on Ruby but that was over 2m4f and only ROR 2nd run in his life over hurdles plus a prep race for the Festival.
That really has nothing to do with anything because if they met in the likes of the Champion Hurdle this season you’d need a search party to go find Bob’s Worth who’d be tailed of by halfway.
He couldn’t get a blow in round Kempton against Grand Crus because speed is not what he is about.
At Cheltenham he outstayed FL up the hill there was no turn of foot involved. Stayed on well was the description and that is exactly what he did.
The problem is Gold Cup pace is very fast and you could compare it to the likes of Grand Crus skipping round Kempton.
He again lost tabs on the leaders at Ascot and lacked the toe to get into a challenging position and was easily held by Invictus.
I think you are confusing turn of foot with staying power of which he has plenty but to use it you have to be able to get into a challenging position.
I just don’t see him having the mid race pace to be competitive at the very top level
Plus I think the RSA was a shockingly poor race this year and potentially there are much better novices across the Irish Sea.
Bobs worth looked much improved in the rsa. he just jumped far more fluently than he did for the rest of the season. having said that though, like hurdygurdyman i’m not sure there was a hell of a lot of depth to the race.
the other problem with backing him now is do you really see him dominating in the lead-up to cheltenham, and coming in a lot in price? it could be that he only brings his a-game to the big meets so theres little point in backing him before the festival itself.
This is one race that I do like to have an ante-post interest and looking at the betting there is one horse that stands out to me – Flemenstar 12/1.
He’s being trained for the 2013 Gold Cup and what he has achieved so far is very promising. Yes, the Irish haven’t won this race since War of Attrition’s victory in 2006 but come March 2013, I feel that this is one horse that will be a lot shorter than the 12/1 quoted.
Bar the mistake at the last, great round for Sir Des Champs. Still him and Bobs Worth for me, will be fighting out next years finish.
This is one race that I do like to have an ante-post interest and looking at the betting there is one horse that stands out to me – Flemenstar 12/1.
He’s being trained for the 2013 Gold Cup and what he has achieved so far is very promising. Yes, the Irish haven’t won this race since War of Attrition’s victory in 2006 but come March 2013, I feel that this is one horse that will be a lot shorter than the 12/1 quoted.
I’m with you. He seems the best jumper out of the main contenders and I love the fact that he won on good ground last time out. The sire suggests he has every chance of staying as well. His form in Ireland is better than SDC but he’s five points longer. Yes please.
In what could well be an open year, I think China Rock is worth a small bet at 160 (Betfair).
His easy Punchestown victory was in a first time tongue tie (‘weakened’ was a word featured regularly in his form summaries before that).
If he’s been suffering from a breathing problem, then 160 seems very big.
No one takes 10p bets these days do they?
I doubt I’d risk that amount. How come every time a horse runs a good race unexpectedly they found he had a wind problem or he won because they added some contraption to his tack? Didn’t take them too long find out what he needed did it?TBH the race he won was full of unrelaiables and a non stayer and isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Most people doubted whether the late Synchronized would have been capable to repeat the task and you are putting up a horse who finished all of a fence behind him this year.
If he was a 7 year old you could expect some improvement but to expect a 10 year old to suddenly improve 50lbs is expecting a bit too much.
He’s now 69 on the machine but someone must have forgot to add a zero because he’s much nearer a 689/1 shot than he is a 68/1 shot imvho……..things a rag of a a horse.
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