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It was widely believed that Silver Birch would find the going too fast today. Many people (myself included) would have discarded the horse as a betting option on that basis, but clearly we were wrong.
Closer scrutiny of his form (always better done before rather than after the event) show he ran twice on going described officially as good, finishing 2nd in a Novice Chase and 4th in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (both races 2004). Since then he has raced only on going described as GS or Softer.
The RP report on the Grand National refers to a ‘carpet’ like surface produced by watering and I remember Mordin writing something about the courses at Newbury and the National Courses giving a cushioning effect due to the dense covering of grass.
So is this a case of the inadequacy of a one-dimensional going description that reports only the effects of pushing a long pointy object into the turf? Or is it simply that lazy reading of form led many (myself included) to draw conclusions not supported by the evidence?
Fell into the same trap, had the winner down as having a chance on all bar the going, knocked it out on that bases! There again I couldn’t narrow the field down below 10 so had no bet.
I think that the general concensus was that Silver Birch acted on good ground but was better on softer ground. Let’s not forget that a lot of the leading contenders failed to finish so it can be argued that Silver Birch did not have to be at his best to beat the ones that did.
I didn’t study the race that much but would never have picked him anyway. Congrats to those that did .
Well done Silver Birch even though i didnt back you and all connections!! But i cant but feel sorry for the previous owner that sold him on!!! Who was advising him???
I was on the 2nd. and the fourth. Win only :(
Never mind,didn’t lose too much.Can’t understand people who have large amounts of money on the GN.
Arandale
<br>Don’t be hard on yerself mate, anyone looking at Official Going reports given in the RP or elsewhere may as well be reading a book of fiction
<br>Though it pains me to say it, because imo your paying for the ratings rather than the "formbook", subscribe to Timeform if you can afford it, their going descriptions will be more accurate than anyone elses imhaho
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Wise after the event as I didn’t study the National but…
…I fail to see how the idea that Silver Birch is ‘better’ on soft going can be entertained as, until yesterday, he had only run once on good going [Timeform] and returned a lifetime fourth best form figure in doing so, plus it was a fourth place in the notoriously gruelling National Hunt Chase: for Novices. So, if anything, he was unexposed on a sounder surface.
A horse cannot be said to categorically need a certain going until there is sufficient evidence from performances on all goings.
Re: the going at Aintree. Following such a wet winter and warm spring it should come as no surprise that the grass was in excellent condition with the extensive watering doing no more than preventing the soil surface from superficially baking/crusting. Not that the peaty soil there is particularly prone to that anyway.
It will be interesting to see what state the ground will be in at the forthcoming high profile Flat fixtures; the Craven meeting has often suffered with poor/sparse grass growth but I’d expect it to be excellent this year, as it should be at all the Spring festivals during May. My local track York is looking bowling green verdant at the moment.
The NH tracks that have taken a hammering through the winter and continue to race through May should be the only ones with surface problems this spring.
Edit: Timeform have the going as Good for all three days
(Edited by Drone at 8:05 pm on April 15, 2007)
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