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5:25 Newmarket
69 points @ 11/4 (Sportsbook) basanti* (min 5/2)
saver:
31 points @ 9/4 (Sportsbook) Dal Haraild (min 9/4)Value Is EverythingHi nwalton, please accept my apologies. I totally respect your sentiments about being respectful and polite on here. I didn’t mean to cause you offence and you are right about me changing solid to safe ( it’s weird how your mind plays tricks on you. I would have sworn black and blue that you used the phrase safe bet. Must be my age starting to show mate). To be honest I originally thought that your post was having a go at GT. Next time I’ll shut the hell up.
Good luck with your betting
PS I think I was in the same class reading the Sporting Life and the Football & Racing Outlook. Jumping over the school fence to leg it to the bookies during break time and lunch. Listening to the racing after school on the old Extel service. Happy days
no problems MTOTO and i also apologise for my rather ‘loud’ reply.Good luck to you also with your betting.
Lot of apologising going on.
I’ll be taking a rest, not in the right frame of mind.Value Is EverythingEnjoy your break Ginge.
Given the results at Newmarket I wish I had taken one about three days ago.
keep doing what you believe in GT we all have rough times,this is when you show you’re metal.Enjoy reading your thoughts and if you do have a break you would be missed.
GT, you’re one of the best in the hardest sport of them all and you will develop that mental toughness that enables you to still carry on regardless of what’s going on around you. Take a break to clear your mind. Treat yourself to a fantastic holiday and come back stronger and refreshed. Keep the faith in your own ability. Cheers
Thanks everyone for your support.
Thankfully my mojo seems refreshed sooner than expected. Probably be back tomorrow with a bet or two for Saturday. Probably start off doing fewer races.Value Is EverythingC O P
Land line down for the fourth time in 10 weeks, still able to to get on internet but painfully slow.
So can’t study.
Will see what it’s like tomorrow but looks doubtful at this stage.
Village life isn’t always best.Value Is EverythingThanks to Stilvi for putting me on to this one, I’ve taken a look at the form and does look excellent value.
Arc De Triomphe
27 points @ 16/1 (WH) Order Of St George* (min 14/1)27 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Found* (min 10/1)(£27 available)
14 points @ 28/1 (betfair) New Bay* (min 16/1)(£14 available)
Value Is EverythingIf you have got them could you possibly quote the Timeform ratings for these horses? I have quoted the Racing Post figure.
Found 124
Treve 131
Danedream 128Very surprised they appear to have put Found up 6 for the Arc. I thought the Irish Champion was the better performance but maybe she was on the golden highway and the pace collapsed in front? Highland Reel managed to find 4 lengths from somewhere.
And the 2yo’s Akihiro 113 and Churchill 119. It probably isn’t going to happen but at odds against I would favour the French horse.
i think the first three home are all on 129 after the Arc (order of st george 129 for his ascot gold cup win)
If you have got them could you possibly quote the Timeform ratings for these horses? I have quoted the Racing Post figure.
Found 124
Treve 131
Danedream 128Very surprised they appear to have put Found up 6 for the Arc. I thought the Irish Champion was the better performance but maybe she was on the golden highway and the pace collapsed in front? Highland Reel managed to find 4 lengths from somewhere.
And the 2yo’s Akihiro 113 and Churchill 119. It probably isn’t going to happen but at odds against I would favour the French horse.
Rather than the Racing Post upping Found a massive amount in one go for the Arc… imo the plus 6 lbs is more to do with admitting they got it wrong in the Irish Champion by under-estimating her there. Timeform rated Found on 123 in 2015 and put her up to a Master Rating of 126 for Leopardstown (her “performance rating” there also has a “+” to it, indicating she could improve on the 126). Upped another 3 lbs to 129 after the Arc.
Postponed was rated 132 before the Arc and therefore (given a 3 lbs sex allowance) Found 126 + 3 lbs = 129 only had 3 lbs to find to dead heat with an in-form favourite. Postponed 2/1 compared to 10/1+ for Found.
As nwalton says, first three horses in the Arc are on 129 and the 129 OOSG is for the Ascot Gold Cup. Although OOSG ran better than distances indicate due to being up with a fast pace. It is interesting that looking at Simon Rowlands stats all bar the winner were slowing down in the final stages.
Despite the 129 ratings, if they met again Found would be 3 lbs clear of the other two due to her sex allowance. 129 is well up to the average rating of an Arc winner when taking in to account the allowance. Although not up to some exceptional fillies who’ve won the race in recent years.
Treve was rated 134 in 2013 and the same as Found 129 in 2014.
Danedream 132 in 2011.
Zarcava 133 in 2008.Found’s 129 + the 3 lbs sex allowance = 132 which is the same Performance Rating as Golden Horn last year.
My own personal opinion is Found ran at least as good in the Arc as the Irish Champion, whether both her and second are worth upping their ratings (Found +3 and Highland Reel +2) remains to be seen. If I were rating the race may be I’d give Found +1 (127) and rate Highland Reel as running to form (127). But haven’t one in to as much detail as Timeform who may know something I don’t.
As I don’t think the Churchill/Akihiro Timeform ratings are in the pulic domain, copyright rules probably do not allow me to comment on how Timeform see them and I haven’t watched the French horse myself so can’t give an opinion.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t want you to be chased by Timeform’s merry band of lawyers.
Thanks for the rest though. Very poor of me to forget Zarkava.
As it would be shame for you not to have already seen next year’s Poulains/Jockey Club winner here’s the link:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWC-kenj9rM
You can also see the debut wins of Akihiro and National Defense.
Thanks Stilvi,
I think if Akihiro and Churchill meet, judging by breeding and style of racing it would all depend on the trip.
At 7f or a mile next season suspect Churchill will come out on top.
At 10 or 12f Akihiro will imo probably have the upper hand.Value Is EverythingThanks Stilvi,
I think if Akihiro and Churchill meet, judging by breeding and style of racing it would all depend on the trip.
At 7f or a mile next season suspect Churchill will come out on top.
At 10 or 12f Akihiro will imo probably have the upper hand.Akihiro shouldn’t have any problems with 10f and hopefully he will stay further. It is the Gold River family.
The jockey was over confident on him last time and the horse got him out of trouble with his change of pace. It isn’t going to happen this year but I think he has enough speed to run Churchill down, whatever the trip. As I said on the other thread I have a feeling that Churchill has had a considerable physical advantage this season. With just runs I think there should be plenty more to come from Akihiro. It is a shame there are no prices for the French races but if there were I think he would be pretty short for both classics.
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