- This topic has 438 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’ve backed all of these in my time, four of them last time out. When starting to look at the race thought I’d be against Ulysses at the prices. But Chain Of Daiseys, Ayrad and Not So Sleepy all seem best from the front; so Ulysses may get the race set up for him. Want to be against Foundation. Stands a good chance on the book – stable in good form etc – but increasingly looking wayward/difficult to win with. CofD has been very weak in the markets this morning and might yet be a non-runner… which could change things. If a NR might do Ayrad as a saver, if she stays in might come back with a saver on Tony Curtis.
Value Is EverythingAs you intimate Stilvi, there wasn’t much between Grecian Light, Urban Fox and Tibertina in the Sweet Solera (can’t see Belle Meade reversing places). Former possibly a bit more scope for improvement, but nothing to make him as short as 9/4 and the other two 11/1 and 16’s. Although I am more keen on Urban Fox, whose yard is in good form, came from further back at Newmarket and had to wait for a gap in a race that seemed to favour prominent runners. That said, on paper there’s not much pace in this race either, so that might suit Tibertina.
I actually want as much pace as possible for Tiburtina. At Newmarket she was outpaced and found herself out wide away from the action before staying on well close home. She is going from a stiff to an easy track so if they dawdle the chances are she will end up nearer last than first.
The non runner hasn’t helped as Bet 365 were already paying 1/4 first three now punters are faced with 10% deduction and just the two places.
Well done Ginger, came up trumps again on what was effectively a bookmakers benefit day as they cleaned up in one conditions race after another.
Well done Ginger, came up trumps again on what was effectively a bookmakers benefit day as they cleaned up in one conditions race after another.
Turned out nice again Stilvi, bit lucky though… Non-runner meant Kilmah turned from saver to main bet and – finally – Lightning Spear came right for me. Could’ve done without Ulysses getting just touched off but can’t complain.
Value Is Everything3:35 Goodwood
78 points @ 9/4 (VC) The Wagon Wheel* (min 2/1)
savers:
36 points @ 2.6/1 (betfair) Bee Case (min 9/4)
11 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Miss Sugars (min 10/1)Value Is Everything3:40 Salisbury
72 points @ 5/2 (B365) Pellucid* (min 85/40)
saver:
29 points @ 5/2 (PP) Perfect Angel (min 9/4)Value Is Everything4:10 Salisbury
88 points @ 9/4 (B365) Gravity Flow* (min 15/8)Value Is Everything1:40 Salisbury
32 points each way @ 6/1 (B365) Sea Fox* (min 11/2)Value Is Everything4:10 Salisbury
88 points @ 9/4 (B365) Gravity Flow* (min 15/8)saver:
16 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Time To Exceed (min 7/1)(£18 available)Value Is Everything3:10 Salisbury
93 points @ 5/4 (Sportingbet) Argenterie* (min Evens)Value Is Everything4:40 Salisbury
15 points @ 25/1 (L) Shalimah* (min 16/1)
25 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Sunny Future* (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingPellucid quite weak in the market today. No obvious reason I can see. Maybe the hood is a mark of something amiss.
Whether you take anything at all from trainer
s comments i dont know, but heres Baldings thoughts on Perfect Angel.“Perfect Angel has got a great chance. She’s a decent filly, won well at Goodwood where the form has worked out very well and she ought to take all the beating in this”.
Pellucid quite weak in the market today. No obvious reason I can see. Maybe the hood is a mark of something amiss.
I really must learn, Kasparov! Got Pellucid all wrong today. Had her down as a fair 2/1, backed at 5/2 and she drifts right out to 5’s!
When the supposed second string halves in price to 4’s, first strings tend to go the other way. However, looking back at it shouldn’t have done Pellucid, at least not as a main bet… and certainly not atall @ 5/2. When a horse has headgear on for the first time on only its second ever start it can be a positive. eg If showing some quirks in third or fourth a hood could improve its temperament. But in Pellucid’s case she’d won easily first time out, barely coming off the bridle. Why change second time unless something worrying is happening at home since the massively encouraging debut? Pellucid early to post, slowly away and although looking the best horse in the race ability-wise – came from rear in a race that suited those on the front – appears an awkward sort. Shouldn’t look at it this way really, but a good day could’ve been even better. What made it worse was I should’ve done the winner! Part of my working out is going through the runners noting down how each horse likes or possibly likes to be ridden…Here’s my thoughts:
Bahamadam – Held up/mid-div
Dainty Dandy – Tracks pace
Eliptical – mid-div 1
Grizzel – Held up/mid-div
Madam Dancealot – Front runner/Held up/Tracks pace
Mystic Dawn – Held Up 1
Pellucid – Held Up 1
Perfect Angel – Tracks Pace/Held Up
Simmie – Held up/Mid-div/Front Runner…Three had only 1 run so were a bit harder to predict, but none of them had raced prominently in that one start. Simmie had front run, but was a doubtful stayer and been held up for her best run – so unlikely to go to the front this time. Dainty Dandy usually tracks pace, doesn’t lead. Perfect Angel had tracked pace last time. But by far the most likely pace setter was Madam Dancealot AND unlikely to be harried for the lead. Argggggggh!
Perfect Angel a bit disappointing, thought she was going ok at one stage – just behind the leaders – but when a gap came she emptied.Bit disappointed Sean Levy came off the rail in the first, leaving Salouen – who (in a dawdle of a race) had looked in danger of being stuck on the rail – a way out. Just beating my Sea Fox who’d halved in price since my bet. At least he was each way.
Wanted to be against both Gold Faith and Sam Missile in the 7th race, both better suited to truly run affairs and again didn’t seem much pace. I was right, but the two I tried Salimah and Sunny Future weren’t up to it either. May be should’ve just laid the two favs instead?
The other two races went to plan. Gravity Flow‘s four timer. Could see him making it five, seemed to be idling and the form looks strong.
Argenterie, bit on toes in the paddock but that’s probably just her. Backed in to Evens from 5/4, went to the front and never in any trouble. Quidhampton maiden usually proves a strong race of its type – although only a maiden is a Class 3. Nathra won it last year. Argenterie could go on, but isn’t a great looker. May not quite have the scope for further improvement of the sizable Balding filly of the first division, there may have been a Group 3 on the card for 2 year olds, but if there’s a Group 2 or 1 horse on today’s card it is Poet’s Vanity. 10 lengths winner and a good looker too. Odds-on Contentment eased a bit close home, would’ve been a fairly easy winner without her. Third Twenty Times made up a lot of ground late and showed quite a bit of promise for Richard Hughes without being given a hard time.
Value Is Everything4:20 Ascot
savers first:
11 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Hors De Combat (min 7/1)(£16 available)Value Is Everything3:45 Ascot
65 points @ 3/1 (WH) William Hunter* (min 11/4)saver:
35 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Walpole (min 15/8)(£48 available)Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.