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4:40 Newbury
100 points @ 6/4 (Sky) Fields Of Fortune* (min 11/10)Value Is Everything4:40 Newbury
100 points @ 6/4 (Sky) Fields Of Fortune* (min 11/10)saver:
18 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Genrtics (min 11/2)(£25 available)Value Is EverythingGinger, do you know anything about the chances of Anerican raiders in The Arc, it’s just that I want to bet Flintshire, but I get the feeling that American runners would not be too frequent.
Or anybody else who reads this thread?
6:20 Newbury
21 points each way @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Ballylare* (min 13/2)(£59 available)Value Is Everything6:20 Newbury
21 points each way @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Ballylare* (min 13/2)(£59 available)saver:
3 points win @ 10/1 (betfair) Killa Instinct (min 8/1)(£222 available)Value Is EverythingGinger, do you know anything about the chances of Anerican raiders in The Arc, it’s just that I want to bet Flintshire, but I get the feeling that American runners would not be too frequent.
Or anybody else who reads this thread?
“Value is everything” Buckers, Flintshire has form which would put him a lot shorter than 40/1. However, to come to a conclusion about value, ante-post betting must take in to account likelihood of running. For me, that 40/1 is too big and imo in all probability won’t run.
It’s more tricky with Flintshire than any other horse, having been placed twice in the Arc under Andre Fabre – but American trained horses just don’t come over to Europe. So many valuable races over there, have no need to go elsewhere. Arc (journey over, race and journey back) may also be a bit close for an American horse to recover from before the Breeders Cup Turf which is the obvious race for a horse like him. Currently favourite, would they jeopardise that race by running in France? Doubt it. Owner has another, last year’s Arc 3rd (only a neck behind Flintshire) targeted at this year’s renewal.
If you like the horse Buckers, I’d advise backing Flintshire for the Breeders Cup Turf (11/4 with Corals) rather than Arc. May be keep an eye on New Bay just in case anything happens to that one, which might encourage connections to have a change of target for the American horse.
Good luck.
Value Is EverythingThank you for that reply Ginger. Yes I thought he’d be unlikely to travel, but it is good to see my fears to be confirmed.
4:30 Goodwood
34 points @ 8/1 (B365) Arod* (min 7/1)48 points @ 7/1 (B365) Lightning Spear* (min 11/2)
saver:
44 points @ 15/8 (PP) Thikryaat (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingI would endorse those comments about Flintshire. I think the World knows he wants quick ground and even if the race was under remote consideration that might be the icing on the cake of keeping him away.
In the belief that he is better than the bare form would suggest I will be disappointed if Thikriyaat doesn’t step up tomorrow. My biggest fear would be Hanagan getting boxed in off a slow pace. It nearly happened last time.
Any thoughts on the Prestige? I originally went with Tiburtina and added Promising. Slight fear about the trip being too sharp for Tiburtina but on bare form she shouldn’t be 16/1. It will be interesting to see how much rain they get because there are no obvious soft ground pedigrees on show.
Here’s my Prestige bets Stilvi:
2:45 Goodwood
30 points @ 15/2 (B365) Arwa* (min 7/1)
40 points @ 7/1 (B365) Promising* (min 13/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (PP) Urban Fox* (min 9/1)(saver to come, probably tomorrow)
Value Is EverythingAs you intimate Stilvi, there wasn’t much between Grecian Light, Urban Fox and Tibertina in the Sweet Solera (can’t see Belle Meade reversing places). Former possibly a bit more scope for improvement, but nothing to make him as short as 9/4 and the other two 11/1 and 16’s. Although I am more keen on Urban Fox, whose yard is in good form, came from further back at Newmarket and had to wait for a gap in a race that seemed to favour prominent runners. That said, on paper there’s not much pace in this race either, so that might suit Tibertina.
I’ll probably save on Kilmah as although she’s got the worst of the draw appears the most likely leader. Not a main bet because of the poor Lowther run last time out. She’s got an excellent chance on 2nd to Fair Eva in Princess Marg and place behind Roly Poly in Cherry Hinton.
Rich Legacy was a first time out winner for Mr. Beckett and could easily come on a lot for the experience. However, pushed along a fair way out there, possibly green but she’s middle-distance bred and a lack of pace might put too much emphasis on speed.
Charlie Hills is having a great time of it this term. Half-brother to Order Of St George, Arwa won her 6f maiden with plenty in hand and is another that might do more now upped in trip from a good draw.
I backed Promising at odds-on in the Newbury maiden, slowly away, took a keen hold and then couldn’t get through until winner had gone. Considering what happened during the race did well to get as close. Would’ve won with luck in running. Promising debut hard to forget. Hannon in better form now too.
My 100% book:
Grecian Light 7/2, Kilmah 9/2, Promising 11/2, Arwa 13/2, Rich Legacy 7/1, Urban Fox 8/1, Tibertina 20/1, Belle Meade 40/1.Value Is Everything3:55 Goodwood
69 points @ 7/2 (sportsbook) Goldmember* (min 3/1)Value Is Everything3:55 Goodwood
69 points @ 7/2 (sportsbook) Goldmember* (min 3/1)savers:
17 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Mr Singh (min 9/2)(£794 available)
6 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Monaleen (min 14/1)(£7 available @ 15/1, £4 @ 15.5/1)You’ll probably get better odds waiting until the morning for these two, I probably won’t be around tomorrow so had to put the bets up now.
Value Is EverythingHere’s my Prestige bets Stilvi:
2:45 Goodwood
30 points @ 15/2 (B365) Arwa* (min 7/1)
40 points @ 7/1 (B365) Promising* (min 13/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (PP) Urban Fox* (min 9/1)saver:
20 points @ 5/1 (WH) Kilmah (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingHere’s my Prestige bets Stilvi:
2:45 Goodwood
30 points @ 15/2 (B365) Arwa* (min 7/1)
40 points @ 7/1 (B365) Promising* (min 13/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (PP) Urban Fox* (min 9/1)saver:
20 points @ 5/1 (WH) Kilmah (min 5/1)Arwa now a non-runner so making Kilmh in to a main bet.
Another:
37 points @ 9/2 (C) Kilmah* (min 4/1)Value Is Everything
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