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4:10 Newbury
25 points each way @ 18/1 (PP) Dark Emerald* (min 15/1)81 points @ 7/4 (B365) Home Of The Brave* (min 13/8)
Value Is EverythingA drift out from 2.00 to 2.3 doesn’t worry me at all for Promising, they often fluctuate a bit. If 2.5 it might be a different story.
It’s bloody worrying now Mtoto, 7/4!!!
If you haven’t backed Promising yet, DON’T, unless/until it shortens up a bit (there’s some confidence in him).
Value Is EverythingAmazing price!
3:05 Newbury
34 points each way @ 9/1 (VC) Red Cardinal* (min 13/2)saver:
16 points @ 9/2 (betway) Humphrey Bogart (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingIt is good to see that you have had a good week.Do you have a view on the 3.40 @ Newbury?I have bad a small EW bet on Noble Peace @ 14/1.If there are no non runners I will back him again @ the off.Have a profitable day.
Haven’t studied the race in detail CJ, too many runners and there are always enough conditions races for me to keep to on this Saturday. Have had a quick look.
Noble Pece ran ok last time, suspect there’s enough pace in today’s race for hold up horses to be effective. On the face of it might be too many with more scope for improvement, but one big advantage he has is the trainer is in far better form than when Noble Peace was last seen – could still improve. Negative though could be the draw, 15 of 16. Although Newbury does not have an obvious draw bias – jockeys can negate it by going towards the middle… However, if splitting the straight course in to four lanes, often seems an advantage racing in the third quarter looking from the stands (low to middle).
Nice to have a runner I can be cheering on when have no bet myself.
Good luck.
Value Is Everything2:55 Deauville
26 points each way @ 16/1 (B365) Lightning Spear* (min 11/1)Value Is Everything2:55 Deauville
26 points each way @ 16/1 (B365) Lightning Spear* (min 11/1)33 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Vadamos* (min 13/2)(£39 available)
saver:
31 points @ 11/4 (PP) Ribchester (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingUnfortunately first two were the wrong way around for me today. But after yesterday’s disaster a winning day! By 0.25 points.
Value Is EverythingThursday Results
Stakes 384, Returns 452.5, Profit +68.5 pointsFriday Results
Stakes 414, Returns 468.5, Profit +54.5 pointsSaturday Results
Stakes 386, Returns 0, Deficit -386 pointsSunday Results
Stake 116, Returns 116.25, Profit +0.25 pointsIt had to end some time. Had a couple of near misses at Salisbury – beaten in photos – as well as the winners…
Then, Sad Saturday.Promising would’ve won had everything not gone wrong for her. Looked dull in the paddock, fly jumped out of the stalls which put her at the back of the field, too keen early and couldn’t get a run, finished fastest.
Amabilis ran poorly, but wouldn’t have beaten Escobar anyway. Frankuus looks one of those good looking horses which just don’t go on.
As expected, Red Cardinal shortened up considerably in the market 9/1 to 6’s; but for some reason Jamie decided to hold him back instead of siezing the initiative like Smullen. After half a furlong I turned to my pal Keith and said “Kings Fete has got this won already”, settling well in front without needing to go too fast. Would’ve looked to back it in-running if at home. Red Cardinal then came with a run in the straight but my each way bet was just nabbed on the line for second. Made the mistake of not doing Kings Fete for the saver. Stoutey went in to the day as a 9 out of 10 in my “trainers in form”; unlike Hannon on 6/10. Kings Fete had been a very hard puller, but a totally different this season since gelded – unlkike my chosen saver Humphrey Bogart, a proven puller in slowly run races in recent starts.
Hungerford didn’t get any better. Biggest bet Home Of The Brave one place out of collecting – in 2nd. Dark Emerald shortened right up from 18/1 to 10’s – one place out of collecting in 3rd. What made it worse was I’d backed Richard Pankhurst in the Sussex at a massive price, believing – although he’s been injured – is lightly raced with scope to improve if Gosden can get him back… Didn’t think there was enouh promise in the run to back him again. But trainer is in much better form now and once there was money for him overnight/in the morning – should’ve at least had a saver!
With everything known before the races Red Cardinal and Dark Emerald were great bets, great bets don’t always win – just one of those things. However, sorry follower, I should’ve done better.
Value Is EverythingNunthorpe
69 points @ 7/2 (Betway) Limato* (min 3/1)25 points @ 12/1 (B3565) Easton Angel* (min 12/1)
savers:
10 points @ 12/1 (WH) Goldream (min 12/1)
13 points @ 8/1 (B365) Yalta (min 8/1)For me, Yalta is a main bet, had some 13/1 taken on betfair some time ago, but unfortunately there isn’t any of that left.
Value Is EverythingJuddmonte International
33 points @ 14/1 (B365) Mutakayyef* (min 11/1)21 points @ 25/1 (B365) Almodavar* (min 20/1)
Value Is Everything^ I tried to find a 100/1+ winner like last year, but 25/1 is the best I can do.
Value Is Everything3:05 York
113 points @ 10/11 (B365) Idaho* (min 4/5)savers:
13 points @ 10/1 (PP) Housesofparliament (min 17/2)
8 points @ 16/1 (PP) The Major General (min 14/1)You could do it the other way around, back the two at big prices and save on the odds-on fav if that’s better for you.
Value Is EverythingJuddmonte International
33 points @ 14/1 (B365) Mutakayyef* (min 12/1)21 points @ 25/1 (B365) Almodavar* (min 16/1)
savers:
5 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Dariyan (min 16/1) (£8 available)
8 points @ 14/1 (B365) Wings Of Desire (min 14/1)Might come back with some place bets in this race.
Value Is EverythingFingers crossed for Mutakyyef Ginge, if he comes up short it won
t be for the lack of effort, thats for sure
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