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Amazing price!
3:05 Newbury
34 points each way @ 9/1 (VC) Red Cardinal* (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingIt looks worth noting that there’s over £10k trying to back Battersea on Betfair in the Geoffrey Freer. Very unusual to see that amount of money overnight. Good luck GT
2:30 Newbury
47 points @ 9/2 (Sportsbook) Amabilis* (min 4/1)saver:
10 points @ 5/1 (WH) Frankuus (min 5/1)Value Is Everything1:55 Newbury
110 points @ Evens (PP) Promising* (min 4/5)half a saver on Hathfa:
10 points @ 5/1 (B365) Hathfa (min 5/1)imo these two’s combined odds are around 80%, taking 1/2 about a 1/4 shot.
Value Is EverythingIt looks worth noting that there’s over £10k trying to back Battersea on Betfair in the Geoffrey Freer. Very unusual to see that amount of money overnight. Good luck GT
May well be just one person with a massive bet Mtoto.
Although it is probable with so much lined up it’s the Pricewise tip. Can’t see it myself, unless Atzeni does a complete reversal of Battersea‘s usual hold up tactics. I can see a slow pace here, those to the fore with an advantage. Still having winners, but some have been disappointing of late and considering Varian’s number of horses isn’t having many runners – odds-on stable has a virus. Battersea ran well at Newmarket, but his level of ability seems established – unlike Red Cardinal.
Kings Fete seems a different animal since cut, seems to settle far better; but this race may test that to the limit. However, he’s still improving and the most likely winner, with Stoute bucking the trend amongst Newmarket trainers – plenty of runners and an excellent strike rate. To me, Promising looks a far better bet at similar (if not better) odds. Liked her performance at Goodwood. Don’t get me wrong, in my opinion Kings Fete still has over three times the chance of Red Cardinal, just not value.
Ormito‘s stable (like Red Cardinal’s) is in good form but doesn’t look quite up to this and has been held up for a late run.
Do like Humphrey Bogart as a horse, wouldn’t be out of St Leger reckoning even if he gets beat tomorrow. Hannon with a St Leger horse! 10f an inadequate trip in USA last time and King Ed came too soon after the Derby. Might have a saver on him if getting any bigger. But is another usually given time in his races, comes with a run at the end. Levy isn’t my favourite jockey in small fields.
Red Cardinal is improving all the time and (although not an established “front runner”) took it up fairly early last time. Hopefully that’ll mean he’s the most likely to race prominently here. Hope Jamie goes to the front, goes a normal 1m5f pace for a couple of furlongs and then slams the breaks on; getting the others at it. Newbury is not usually a front runners track, but think he might get a positional advantage. Therefore, his chance may be considerably better than available odds.
My Book:
Kings Fete 49% 21/20, Humphrey Bogart 20% 4/1, Red Cardinal 15% 11/2, Battersea 11% 8/1, Ormito 5% 20/1.Value Is EverythingHannon with a St Leger horse!
Could have two with Ventura Storm…..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
2:30 Newbury
47 points @ 9/2 (Sportsbook) Amabilis* (min 4/1)saver:
10 points @ 5/1 (WH) Frankuus (min 5/1)That’s just the way I see the race panning out Ginge..
Amabilis is ready to win but you can never discount Frankel’s Flyers and I have backed him on my Thread although I think the filly will beat him so had the saver on herself and a reverse forecast.
Good luck
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...There isn’t much (just a neck) between Home Of The Brave and Convey on John Of Gaunt form. It might seem Convey is the better value today – 5/2 compared to 6/4 – but as well as ability, consistency and temperament also needs to be taken in to account. imo HOTB is the most likely to give his running and… Without a rival/stable companion/out and out front runner to take him on, like there was last time… I fully expect the Hugo Palmer horse to frank the haydock form with Convey, even with Stoutey in cracking form. Just need the fav to ease slightly, surely some bookmaker/exchange will break ranks? Might come back with a bet of some type.
Home Of The Brave holds Markaz on Goodwood form. I backed the Burrows horse that day. Weakened late and I’d like to see him win in this grade at 7f before troubling my wallet again. Although this straight course where able to race on the outer may suit better than Goodwood’s turn.
Jallota has a few pounds to find on the market leaders. Interesting on French form, but I am not so sure he’s as good on a firm surface.
At a massive price, Richard Pankhurst ran with a few quid of mine in the Sussex! Dropped out and never got in to it, but didn’t look happy to me. Not convinced he’s fully over what kept him off the track for so long. Gosden doesn’t often tilt at windmills, but is it his decision?
I’ll probably let him run this time.Golden Steps won the Bunbury Cup last time, but that seemed a return to form rather than actual improvement. Laid out for the race. Isn’t out of this, but a slower pace this grade is often run at may not suit his style.
I’ve gone with outsider Dark Emerald, whose stable is going great guns at the moment. Usually tracks pace. Good second off a mark of 106, now 108. Has 5 lbs to find with 113 Convey but one is 5/2 and the other 18/1. You can also trust Dark Emerald to give his running; something even more important when it comes to each way betting.
My 100% book:
Home Of The Brave 11/8, Convey 3/1, Markaz 10/1, Dark Emerald 12/1, Jallota 14/1, Golden Steps 18/1, Richard Pankhurst 18/1Value Is EverythingIt may be one persons bet GT I’m just pointing out that it’s unusual at this time of night. More likely to be a trader.
BTW if you want to know Pricewise tips the night before you’ll find them here. Always useful to know as his tips often distort the market.Thanks for that link Mtoto. Pricewise certainly does distort the market. Unlike other days of the week, when Pricewise tips sometimes wonder whether it would be best for me to hold on until the morning.
A drift out from 2.00 to 2.3 doesn’t worry me at all for Promising, they often fluctuate a bit. If 2.5 it might be a different story.
Value Is Everything2:30 Newbury
47 points @ 9/2 (Sportsbook) Amabilis* (min 4/1)saver:
10 points @ 5/1 (WH) Frankuus (min 5/1)That’s just the way I see the race panning out Ginge..
Amabilis is ready to win but you can never discount Frankel’s Flyers and I have backed him on my Thread although I think the filly will beat him so had the saver on herself and a reverse forecast.
Good luck
Jac
It is a bit of a tricky race to price up Jac. Almost didn’t bother, but couldn’t resist.
Escobar is obviously a well thought of sort from one of the best trainers in the country. Is 50/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Impressive in his only start and “could be anything or nothing. Was only a maiden and the 2 lengths second has done nothing to advertise the form. It’s good breeding, but not top class. Considering only one run to his name there could be abnormal improvement, so has the best chance/should be favourite. Held up and took a while to grasp the nettle on debut, lack of experience could tell here. Needs to find quite bit in one go and imo shouldn’t be so short. I’d want at least 85/40 to back Escobar.
Frankuus is listed placed already. Tbh Jac, considering he’s physically one of the most mature two year olds you’ll see, I’ve been a little disappointed and expect a better performance at some point. Could be today. I’d expect him to lead.
Mr Scaramanga actually came out on top of Frankuus in the Chesham, but has had plenty of chances and imo lacks the scope of the Frankel colt.
I was impressed with Amabilis‘s first run, when a good second to a good prospect in Dabyah at Newmarket. Then chased home another nice type in one of Coolmore’s Oaks/Guineas fillies, Rhododendron at Goodwood. So although still a maiden, the form is still quite good. Did well last time considering much too keen early. I’d be more concerned Amabilis wouldn’t settle if the obvious front runner Frankuus had more speed. But it’s probably in the Johnston horse’s best interests to make at least a fair pace.
I don’t rule out Argenterie. Stable in really good form and like Escobar only one run to her name so scope for improvement. 66/1, length 3rd, just 1 length behind Amabilis at Goodwood. Treggoning’s two year olds usually need their first run and more improvement almost guaranteed. However, the Beckett filly would’ve been further in front at the line had she not pulled early.
My 100% Book:
Escobar 15/8, Amabilis 100/30, Frankuus 4/1, Mr Scaramanga 13/2, Argentirie 12/1.Value Is Everything
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