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2:50 Aintree
82 points @ 2/1 (B365) Un Temps Pour Tout* (min 7/4)Value Is Everything2:50 Aintree
82 points @ 2/1 (B365) Un Temps Pour Tout* (min 7/4)24 points @ 16/1 (B365) Henry Parry Morgan* (min 13/1)
Value Is Everything4:05 Aintree
28 points @ 28/1 (PP) Mr Moonshine* (min 20/1)26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 10/1)(£26 available)
Value Is Everything4:05 Aintree
28 points @ 28/1 (PP) Mr Moonshine* (min 20/1)26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 10/1)(£26 available)
23 points @ 14/1 (betfair) Bishops Road* (min 12/1)(£34 available)
Value Is Everything4:05 Aintree
28 points @ 28/1 (PP) Mr Moonshine* (min 20/1)26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 10/1)(£26 available)
23 points @ 14/1 (betfair) Bishops Road* (min 12/1)(£34 available)
you’ll probably get a lot better tomorrow morning but:
19 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Top Cat Henry* (min 20/1)(£48 available)Value Is Everything4:05 Aintree
28 points @ 28/1 (PP) Mr Moonshine* (min 20/1)26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 10/1)(£26 available)
23 points @ 14/1 (betfair) Bishops Road* (min 12/1)(£34 available)
you’ll probably get a lot better tomorrow morning but:
19 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Top Cat Henry* (min 20/1)(£48 available)savers:
6 points @ 20/1 (B365) Dromnea (min 20/1)
8 points @ 14/1 (B365) Benny’s Mist (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
another saver:
4 points @ 40/1 (SJ) O’Faolains Boy (min 28/1)On the whole I am going to keep Many Clouds and The Last Samuri as the two big bets, Goonyella is a normal win. Have laid a bit of Le Reve back, but his price is has increased since. Probably have a few more savers.
Value Is EverythingIf you haven’t yet backed Many Clouds or The Last Samuri I do believe both are still value. So if not yet on yet suggest:
31 points @ 9/1 Many Clouds
41 points @ 11/1 The Last SamuriValue Is EverythingGT, it looks as if someone has accidentally reported this thread for inappropriate content. I can’t remove it, but I’ll send Corm a pm.
:lol:
I know I’ve hit the report button instead of the quote button in the past too Vtc.Cheers
Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
another saver:
4 points @ 40/1 (SJ) O’Faolains Boy (min 28/1)On the whole I am going to keep Many Clouds and The Last Samuri as the two big bets, Goonyella is a normal win. Have laid a bit of Le Reve back, but his price is has increased since. Probably have a few more savers.
8 points @ 18/1 (WH) Holywell (min 16/1)
Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
another saver:
4 points @ 40/1 (SJ) O’Faolains Boy (min 28/1)On the whole I am going to keep Many Clouds and The Last Samuri as the two big bets, Goonyella is a normal win. Have laid a bit of Le Reve back, but his price is has increased since. Probably have a few more savers.
8 points @ 18/1 (WH) Holywell (min 16/1)
7 points @ 179/1 (betfair) Vics Canvas* (min 66/1)
Value Is EverythingCRABBIES GRAND NATIONAL 4m2f74yrds Aintree
Probable going description: Soft1. /11161-6221 Many Clouds 9: 11-10 Oliver Sherwood 165 Leighton Aspell 13.2% 13/2
So no horse has won the Grand National back to back since Red Rum… Many Clouds may be carrying just 1 lb more than last year, but that gives a false impression. This is a better quality race and his mark has actually gone up 5 lbs (160 to 165). However, that’s still the least amount of any Grand National winner this Century! Comply Or Die went up three times as much when following victory with the runner-up spot in 2005, Hedgehunter went up 12 lbs when 6 lengths 2nd in 2006. Many Clouds appears well handicapped and has the best chance of following up since those heady days of the 1970’s. Tracked pace, jumped impeccably, left in front 5 out with the fall of The Druid’s Nephew who was travelling well at the time. Many Clouds re-opposes on 4 lbs better terms, ie he’s been handicapped as if finishing 4 lengths behind the faller. We know he finds plenty for pressure and in my opinion would’ve won anyway. Held on well to beat Saint Are, now 2 lbs worse off with runner-up for 1¾ lengths and 13 lbs for 12¾ lengths with 5th Shutthefrontdoor. Went in to last year’s Grand National after a hard race at Cheltenham and some in the Sherwood stable believed him over the top for the season; yet produced what was – at the time – a career best. Ran at least as well since; in 3m1f soft ground 4 runner listed race; 4 lengths 2nd giving the winner Don Poli 5 lbs. A race that suggests Many Clouds would’ve been 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (Don Poli finished 14½ lengths 3rd to Don Cossack). Many Clouds instead proved his well-being in Kelso’s Premier Chase (2m7f soft). Never looking in any danger and again out-jumping rivals. Now 12 lbs worse off with runner-up Unioniste, but won with a good deal more in hand than a 10 lengths margin implies. The way he’s run at lesser trips this term suggests more improvement is on the cards at Aintree – ideally suited by the test of stamina and jumping this race provides. Genuine and effective on very soft or good ground. Jockey Leighton Aspell is going for an unprecedented third Grand National in a row.2. /51171-22P1 Silviniaco Conti 10: 11-08 Paul Nicholls 163 Noel Fehily 3.75% 25/1
One of the best chasers of recent seasons. Dual King George VI (3m) winner, latest in 2014 by 4½ lengths from Dynaste. Beat Cue Card 3½ lengths in 2013 when runner-up uncharacteristically folded tamely and trainer was out of form. Rare poor performance by Silviniaco Conti in this season’s renewal at a time when his yard’s horses were struggling. Showed he’s over whatever ailed him with a 20 lengths victory in Ascot Chase over 2m5f (soft), blinkers for the first time replacing cheek pieces, travelled and (as usual) jumped supremely well. Undoubtedly well handicapped here; handicapper would give him 6 lbs more if framing the race now and mark was 9 lbs higher (172) at the start of this season, has been as high as 177. Two Betfred Bowl (3m1f) wins at this meeting to his name, although not at best for either race. In 2015 held on by head from Ballynagour who’s now 6 lbs better off, 3rd Holywell 10 lbs better off for 2½ lengths. However, this is the first time he’s coming here without running at Cheltenham since an impressive 13 lengths victory as a novice in 2012, so could be fresher as a result. Goes on soft and good going… And so to stamina: Sire Dom Alco is responsible for Paul Nicholls’ Grand National winner Neptune Collonges and many other stayers. Silviniaco Conti has speed for 2½ miles and stays 3m1f. The theory of not being effective at Cheltenham may or may not be significant. Horses not winning does not mean they don’t “act on a course”. One run there over hurdles – gave 4 lbs to both Menorah (7/4 fav) and Cue Card (15/8) at what we now know was an inadequate trip of 2m1f, beaten just 4½ and ½ length respectively; as good as you could expect. Fact is he’s disappointed over the furthest trip he’s tried… Tracked pace and travelling best of all when departing 3 out in his first Gold Cup, but that’s what he’s done since, travelling well before not getting home. Raced even further back on his other two tries at the race. Nicholls now claims he’s always thought of Silviniaco Conti as a “stayer”, if that is the case then why has he in the past totally changed the horse’s usual attacking, front running tactics when running over Cheltenham’s undulating stiff 3m2½f? At times taking a keen hold. Silviniaco Conti’s best form is with a combination of ridden prominently on flat tracks (Aintree is flat) but will he be asked to race up with the pace over this mile longer trip? For me, big stamina doubts still remain especially with a lot of rain expected overnight.3. /246830-8432P First Lieutenant 11: 11-04 Mouse Morris Brian Cooper (Ireland) 159 0.25% 400/1
Formerly top class; 2013 Betfred Bowl winner at this meeting (3m1f good) beating Menorah ¾ length. Has not won in 17 starts since; some good runs but inconsistent and mark came down as a result. Ran off 147 in November’s Hennessy, 12¼ lengths 3rd to Smad Place who gave 8 lbs. Raced mid-field early, dropped back mid-race before vigorously pushed along to get closer end of back straight, under pressure just behind leaders home turn, stayed on but lost 2nd near line. May have given impression would’ve won had run started sooner penultimate start but is not easy to win with. In 6 runner Grade 1 Lexus Chase (3m Heavy) at Lepardstown, ½ a length 2nd to Don Poli (who wasn’t at his best). Jockey got a ban for over-use of the whip with 13 strokes on run-in. Now 3 lbs worse off with On His Own who was 2¾ lengths away in 4th. Despite doubtful looking form the Handicapper hasn’t taken any chances with that run, races off a 12 lbs worse mark than at Newbury. Is 5 lbs worse than when 95 lengths 16th of 19 finishers in last year’s Grand National. On the back foot after pecked first and bad mistake second fence took him to rear, jumped reasonably after that, evasive action going wide Canal Turn. Back to his inconsistent ways last time out in Irish Gold Cup (3m½f heavy). Close enough in 4th 2 out, weakened badly in to last place well before the final fence and pulled up. Probably acts on any going, stays 3¼m and should stay further if putting it all in. Couple of positive signs are that owner Gigginstown’s number 1 jockey has apparently chosen to make a late switch and the Mouse Morris stable are in excellent form.4. /123783P-2 Wonderful Charm 8: 11-03 Paul Nicholls 158 Sam Twiston-Davies 0.2% 500/1
Absent since 11th December; 17 lengths runner-up in 3¼m soft ground handicap at Cheltenham. Has a turn-around of 19 lbs with winner Aachen who’s improved since. Now on just 1 lb lower mark. Trainer believes Wonderful Charm is best raced infrequently so has kept him fresh. Not much evidence of that in his form. First run for 11 weeks, mid-division, probably wouldn’t have figured but ruined any chance with a blunder 6 out (ditch) when 34¾ lengths 8th to Uxizandre in 2015 Ryanair. Then just 4 weeks later at this meeting over conventional fences (3m1f good) off top weight of 159 – ran well to be 3rd behind Duke Of Lucca in a finish of necks. Wonderful Charm doing well to recover from a bad mistake, took off too early at fence in front of stands. Pulled up 2 weeks later in Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5½f good). Settled in rear in an attempt to stay the furthest trip he’s undertaken, beaten before stamina came in to play and pulled up before home turn. Effective on soft and good ground although the softer it is the less chance he has of staying. Shown his form from a truly run 2½m to 3¼m, difficult to know why he should stay much further. Reasonable jumper but can hit one hard. Trainer may be talking up Wonderful Charm’s chances to placate his number 1 jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who does not have the choice of mounts here, Silviniaco Conti is Noel Fehily’s ride, Unioniste Nick Scholfield’s and Just A Par Sean Bowens, all three in my opinion have a better chance than Wonderful Charm.5. /2P2-F1535PP7 Ballynagour 10: 11-02 David Pipe 157 Tom Scudamore 0.125% 800/1
Excellent performance over normal fences at this meeting last year, improved form in first time hood, going down by a head from a below par Silviniaco Conti in Betfred Bowl (3m1f good-soft). Now 6 lbs better off with winner and 4 lbs worse off with 2¼ lengths 3rd Holywell. Ballynagour dropped out last of 7, slight error 6th and blunder 4 out didn’t stop forward momentum, jumped well home straight, challenged on inner, just failed. Yet to be asked a serious question when fell 4 out in Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup (3m1f good-yielding) later the same month in a race won by Don Cossack from Djakadam. Took in two French hurdle races in the Summer (won Grade 2). Good 4 lengths 3rd to Cue Card in Charlie Hall Chase (3m soft) in October. Badly lost form afterwards, looked amiss in Betfair Chase, King George and Denman. Lot better last time out off this 157 mark, especially considering hampered, twice taking evasive action in “Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate” (2m4½f good) at Cheltenham, a race he won in 2014. As usual dropped out last before steady progress, only 4 lengths down 2 out, weakened to finish 13¾ lengths 7th of 22 to Empire Of Dirt, gave winner 15 lbs (less conditional David Noonan’s 5 lb). Positives: Fairly well handicapped on best form, usually comes to hand this time of year and excellent record around Aintree’s Mildmay course (not run over these fences). Tom Scudamore has chosen him over Soll. Negatives: Travels so strongly in races from 2½m to 3m1f seems doubtful he’ll get any further let alone this far. Doesn’t give fences much room for error.6. 15/-P1P87 O’Faolains Boy 9: 11-01 Rebecca Curtis 156 Brian Hughes 4.2% 22/1
The most difficult horse to fathom in this field. Won 2014 RSA (3m½f good) by a neck from Smad Place. Now 6 lbs worse off for the 6¼ lengths he beat 3rd Morning Assembly, 9 lbs with 8½ lengths 4th Ballycasey. On the same 156 mark now as given for that race. Missed a season with a tendon injury; inauspicious return when pulled up. Victory this season only in 2 finisher Graduation Chase at Newbury… and the 15 lengths 2nd Sausalito Sunrise is a bit hit and miss. However, had to be impressed by O’Faolains Boy’s enthusiastic, bold, accurate jumping from the front and the way he stayed on strongly (2m7½f soft). Possibly another problem afterwards because despite the win sported a first time tongue tie on his next start – Cotswold Chase (3m1f heavy). Unable to lead and jumping fell apart, pulled up 3 out. Poor run over hurdles and then the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good). On this occasion cheek pieces used for the first time, 52 lengths 7th of 8 finishers doesn’t do him justice. Led or disputed against the best chasers around and back to the type of jumping I saw at Newbury. Still upsides leaders 3 out; considering company kept not surprisingly weakened. Had a hard a race for this relatively quick turn-around, hopefully over those exertions. Held up in RSA, possibly needs prominent tactics nowadays. Effective on soft or good and 3m2f the furthest raced. Could be suited by further; stable’s Grand National 3rd Teaforthree was by the same sire Oscar. Half-brothers O’Faolains Boy and Saddlers Storm (who’s best at 4m+) share the same paternal grand-sire. Stable starts the week in cracking form and O’Faolains Boy is an outsider worth considering.7. /11321-3455 Gilgamboa 8: 11-01 Enda Bolger (Ireland) 156 Robbie Power 0.25% 400/1
Excellent 10 lengths 5th to Vautour in Ryanair Chase (2m4½f good) at Cheltenham last time out. Raced mid-division, outpaced down the hill before staying on home straight. Disappointed on his only try in cheek pieces at 3 miles penultimate start when 25½ lengths 5th behind Carlingford Lough in Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup (heavy). Held up in a race that should have suited such tactics, took closer order 3 out, weakened next. Doesn’t have the ground as an excuse, put up some good performances on the surface, including 13¼ lengths 3rd to Djakadam in Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial at only 2m4f (heavy). May be an overly strong pace at 3m on heavy ground placed too much emphasis on stamina in Irish Gold Cup? If he doesn’t stay in those conditions seems unlikely to stay 4¼m even if it’s a sounder surface. Also appeared outstayed when 4/1 favourite for Paddy Power Chase (3m½f soft) at Leopardstown, led over the last fence where he pecked on landing before tying up run-in, 5¼ lengths 4th to Minella Foru, giving winner 16 lbs less top conditional rider Jack Kennedy’s 5 lbs claim. Re-opposes 2nd Ucello Conti on 6 lbs better terms for 3¾ lengths (1 lb including claim). Effective on heavy or good going although even more unlikely to fail for stamina on softer ground. Owner J P McManus probably has better chances with Shutthefrontdoor and Gallant Oscar. Trainer Enda Bolger is good at preparing horses for unconventional fences. Jockey Robbie Power was successful back in 2007 with Silver Birch.8. /862651P-797U4828 On His Own 12: 11-01 Willie Mullins (Ireland) 156 Mr Paddy Mullins0.25% 400/1
Short head runner-up in a substandard Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2014 (3m2½ f good) arguably unlucky not to be given race in the Stewards Room after interference by winner Lord Windermere. Retains more ability than most 12 year olds although inconsistent nowadays. Normally a front runner and unlikely to get his own way here. Ran well in Grade 1 Lexus (3m heavy) jumping better than of late when allowed to dictate, 3¼ lengths 4th to Don Poli (who wasn’t at his best). Now 3 lbs better off with 2nd First Lieutenant for 2¾ lengths. Also good head 2nd penultimate start in Grade 2 Bobbyjoe (3m1f Heavy) now 2 lbs worse off with stable/owner companion winner Boston Bob. On His Own hesitant at first, niggly errors disputing the running thereafter, outpaced 3 out, hampered 2 out, stayed on but lost out in a driving finish. Usually ridden by amateur Paddy Mullins who again takes the ride. Outclassed and seemed to resent being unable to race handily when 54 lengths last in Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good) last time out. Pushed along after landing over first two and soon dropped back. Progressively worse form over these fences. Fell at second Bechers while moving particularly well in 3rd 2012 Grand National (good). Second favourite, beaten before coming down second Valentines in 2013 renewal (good-soft). 7/1 favourite, ran moodily in 2013 Becher (3m2f soft) losing a prominent position with slow jumps, soon in last 3, stayed on from 2 out to finish 18¼ lengths 6th.9. /12751F-662 The Druids Nephew 9: 11-00 Neil Mulholland 155 Dennis O’Regan 4.75% 20/1
2015’s “unlucky” Grand National horse; made a couple minor errors, generally jumped well before crumpling on landing 5 out. At the time going better than winner Many Clouds; although so too was eventual 5th Shutthefrontdoor. Usually travels well where as winner can find plenty off the bridle. The Druids Nephew undoubtedly well handicapped then, off same 146 mark as when an easy 3¾ lengths victory in 3m1f good-soft Cheltenham handicap the time before. Now 9 lbs higher so is handicapped as if beating Many Clouds 4 lengths! Worse off by 4 lbs with winner; 6 lbs with both 2nd Saint Are and 8lbs with 5th Shutthefrontdoor. Connections believe he’s better with “good” in the going description. Might not stay this trip on soft but twice a winner on it and – 3m3f soft ground – excellent 1½ lengths 2nd behind Sam Winner who gave 6 lbs; the pair 25 lengths clear in 2014 Murphy Group Chase. Winner franked the form following month when 1½ lengths 3rd to top class Road To Riches in Grade 1 Lexus. The Druids Nephew was an encouraging 2nd in Grimthorpe Chase (3m2f soft) off this 155 mark last time out; dived at first and reached for the ditch. Aintree experience an advantage although sometimes doesn’t give fences much room for error. Could come on for the run/improve; but – because he acts on soft – seems unlikely to improve as much as 10 lengths to turn around Grimthorpe form with The Last Samuri on identical marks.10. 10P/P3-15 Triolo D’Alene 9:11-00 Nicky Henderson 155 Jeremiah McGrath 0.5% 200/1
Won the 2013 Topham (2m5f good-soft) over these fences off a much lower 132 mark. Raced mid-division, mistake at The Chair, made up a lot of ground around inner of Bechers, Foinavon and Canal Turn, put in a short one and blundered 5 out, slight error 2 from home before staying on strongly, beat Walkon (who gave a stone) ¾ length. Then in November same year a Hennessey (3m2f good) off 147, now 5 lbs worse off for 2¾ lengths with runner-up Rocky Creek. Progress from end of first circuit, travelled well to dispute lead 2 out, soon recovering from his only mistake at the last to win going away. Triolo D’Alene at that time improving fast. However, breathing problems since; 10th of 11 finishers in 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and then pulled up in Grand National that year. Off the track for over a year before winning a Kempton three runner conditions race (2½m soft) in January. Unlike the long odds-on favourite Petit Zig who didn’t jump well even before unseating – an excellent round of bold, accurate jumping under today’s jockey Jeremiah McGrath. Only other runner disappointed so just what Triolo D’Alene achieved not easy to assess. Handicapper put him back up 5 lbs afterwards to 155. Long way off a performance of that nature last time out; 54¼ lengths 5th of 6 finishers in Grade 1 Ascot Chase (2m5f soft) settled in rear and didn’t have the same cut at fences, well beaten before the home turn. Tactically versatile, seemed to handle conditions penultimate star, but trainer believes Triolo D’Alene better on a sounder surface; more rain forecast.11. /2P10P-2P40 Rocky Creek 10: 10-13 Paul Nicholls 154 Andrew Thornton 0.2% 500/1
Came in to the race last year seemingly with an excellent chance off this mark having won 2015 Betbright Chase (3m soft) off the same 154. Gave 8 lbs and a 6 lengths beating to Le Reve who’s now 3 lbs worse off (improved since). However, Rocky Creek disappointed at Aintree, reportedly losing a shoe, 8/1, beaten before second Bechers and finishing 100 lengths 11th of 19 finishers behind Many Clouds. Now just 5 lbs better off with winner. Ran well reappearance – possibly at his best very fresh nowadays – 8 lengths 2nd of 4 to Don Cossack in an uncompetitive Grade 1 JNWine (3m yielding to soft) winner didn’t need to be anything like his best. Another disappointing run over these fences in (just 2m5f soft) Grand Sefton; outpaced second circuit, well behind when slow jump Canal Turn, pulled up. Tongue tie and first time blinkers latest start in the same race he won 12 months before – Betbright Chase (3m good-soft) 21¾ lengths 10th of 12 finishers, trying to give Theatre Guide 19 lbs. Travelled well enough until back straight when winner came up on his outside and quickly beaten. Usually gives the outer to nobody, (claustrophobic?). Although jumps well and breathing operation worked for a while last season, looks increasingly temperamental. Unlikely to better his 5th place in the 2014 Grand National, probably stays this trip but finished tamely then too. On jockey bookings is the stable 5th string this year. Acts on heavy and good going.12. 21F4/-157 Sir Des Champs 10: 10-13 Willie Mullins (Ireland) 154 Ms Nina Carberry 2% 50/1
Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh won the 2005 Grand National with Hedgehunter. Sir Des Champs is poorly handicapped on this season’s form (ground excuse last two runs). Exceptionally well handicapped on 7 year old form; 7 lengths 2nd in 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f officially soft, times suggest going was a lot quicker). Looked winner rounding the home turn, appeared outstayed final 50 yards by Bobs Worth. Confirmed the form with a win in Punchestown Gold Cup (3m1f soft) from Cheltenham 3rd Long Run. Had almost 2 years off with a career threatening tendon injury. Won Thurles listed race (2m6f soft) on return, beating inferior rivals. Allowed the 2nd Rubi Light (who gave him 7 lbs) a long lead, staying on to win by 2¾ lengths with a bit in hand. Sir Des Champs is probably unsuited by heavy. Disappointed in two heavy ground 3m Grade 1’s with similar outcomes, including last time out 32 lengths 7th of 8 finishers in Irish Gold Cup. In trouble fully 3 out and very slow over the last, finishing tired. Just how much ability Sir Des Champs retains is questionable, however, the Mullins stable seem to always know what they’ve got and mirrored in the betting. Backed at big odds in recent days with Ruby Walsh now expected to ride. However, Brian Cooper had the first choice of owner Gigginstown’s horses and has apparently chosen First Lieutenant. Sir Des Champs has been held up so far this season, he tracked pace at both Cheltenham and Punchestown for which he was given a mark of 173. Now 19 lbs lower and wouldn’t need to be at his best to win. Sometimes horses stay further as they get older, however, he’s given the impression in the past of one with enough speed for 2m4f who stays 3m2f. STOP PRESS: Ruby Walsh has a wrist injury and mises the National, Ms Nina Carberry takes the ride.13. /3U143-54P2 Holywell 9: 10-12 Jonjo O’Neil 153 Richie McLernon 6.75% 14/1
Totally lost his form earlier in the season, but ignore anything Holywell does in Winter; handicapper hasn’t – dropping his mark 10 lbs since the end of last season to an attractive 153. Far better in the Spring. Not much gap between meetings this year, but has an excellent record at both Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. Including 9½ lengths 4th to Coneygree in 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f soft) turning for home upsides runner-up Djakadam, unable to quicken. Then Aintree (3m1f good-soft) in Betfred Bowl, 2½ lengths 3rd behind Silviniaco Conti over conventional fences. Now 10 lbs better off with winner who admittedly didn’t need to be at his best. Better off by 4 lbs and 2¼ lengths to make up on 2nd Ballynagour (latter has shown little since). Successful at this meeting in 2014 3m1f Mildmay Novices Chase (good). Holywell back to form off today’s 153 mark last time out (3m1f good-soft) Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham (a race he’d won in 2014) 7 lengths 2nd trying to give winner Un Temps Pour Tout 5 lbs; 10 lengths clear of 4th Morning Assembly who re-opposes on identical marks. Holywell’s only error pecking on landing 3 out with a loose horse directly in front. Return to form may also be something to do with a return to prominent tactics. Not always the best of leapers, tends to jump and travel better with a clear view of his fences. Jumping and temperament are concerns if unable to get a position to the fore. Yet to encounter further than 3m2½f but could easily improve for this extreme trip and the sun on his back. Some believe him best on good or good-soft, but the 4th in last year’s Gold Cup was right up there with his best performances. Richie McLernon on Sunnyhillboy just got nabbed on the line in 2012 – has a very good record on Hollywell. Jonjo O’Neil stable has returned to form this week with a double on Tuesday and yesterday’s Topham winner Eastlake.14. 1/15-3P Shutthefrontdoor 9: 10-11 Jonjo O’Neil 152 Barry Geraghty 4% 25/1
Don’t Push It won in 2010 for Jonjo O’Neil and owner J P McManus, providing jockey AP McCoy with his one and only Grand National victory. Shutthefrontdoor didn’t read the script as AP’s final ride last year, a well backed 6/1 favourite. Touch keen tracking the pace with a clear view of most fences, had to reach for first Bechers, slight mistake 18th, travelling well when a bigger error 3 out, pushed along before 2 out, still disputing 2nd at last, lost 3rd Elbow and tired badly for 5th. Now off a 1 lb lower mark; 13 lbs better off for 12¾ lengths with winner Many Clouds and 10 lbs for 11 lengths with 2nd Saint Are. Also 8 lbs better with The Druids Nephew who fell 5 out when leading. Looked as though stamina failed Shutthefrontdoor, but if he can settle a bit better – may be get a bit more cover – has a fair chance of staying 4¼m this time if the going is not too testing. Connections will be praying it does not rain too much overnight. Already winner of the 2014 Irish National with today’s jockey Barry Geraghty on board (3m5f good-yielding). Although conditions didn’t test stamina too greatly – didn’t seem to go much of a pace. Won off a 142 Irish mark, 10 lbs lower than here. Lightly raced and could yet improve. Seemed to take no interest in 2m4f Greatwood Gold Cup (soft) beaten a circuit out and pulled up. However, trainer reportedly said Shutthefrontdoor came back with a foot abscess. Jonjo generally in poor form at the time too (far better now) and has a surprisingly good record with horses pulled up last time out.15. /P119-0413 Soll 11: 10-11 David Pipe 152 Conor O’Farrell 0.3% 200/1
Put up 7 lbs – seems harsh – for winning Veterans Final penultimate start by a head (3m heavy) at Sandown – a place he’s got a good strike rate. Slog in the mud suited Soll. Tracked pace kept wide, untidy 3 out but jumping efficiently, plodding on and got up close home, finished tired. Now 2 lbs worse off with runner-up Aachen. Pretty good record at Aintree, with form figures over Grand National fences of 7 0 9 4, the “9” in last year’s race (good-soft) off a mark 13 lbs lower than here. Ran well for a long way, mistakes first two fences, jumped better when getting a clear view of obstacles, prominent, disputed lead from second Bechers, passed and surrounded on rail 3 out. Weakened quickly to be 41¼ lengths behind Many Clouds but reportedly broke a blood vessel. Was well handicapped going in to the race last year, the opposite here. Now worse off with all those who beat him there, including winner. Also 4th in the Becher Chase off just a 145 mark in December, 3¼ lengths behind Highland Lodge giving winner 13 lbs. Held up initially, slow at the first, mistake water, rider seemed keen to go wide to dispute lead from next; mistake Bechers, outpaced 3 out, stayed on. Off just 6 weeks and race probably came too soon last time, but also a mulish display, 75 lengths last of 3 finishers (3m2f heavy). Never happy, many uncharacteristic errors, reminders a circuit out, beaten before end of back straight, allowed to come home in his own time. Did he break another blood vessel? Ran ok on good ground, but the softer the better for Soll who stays well and although quirky is genuine in a finish. Difficult to see him being good enough at the weights and Tom Scudamore seems to have chosen Ballynagour.16. /15145-3243 Buywise 9: 10-10 Evan Williams 151 Paul Moloney 0.2% 500/1
Good place record in big handicap chases. Excellent 2nd off a mark 3 lbs lower than here (148) in Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m4f good-soft). Held up, bit slow 2nd, stumbled bend, mistake first ditch, lot to do when 12th home turn, took last fence behind a wall of 6 horses, switched, finished fastest of all just failing to catch Annacotty (who received 1 lb) by rapidly diminishing half length.“Unlucky” but that’s him all over. Now 6 lbs worse off for 4½ lengths with 4th Double Ross. Also ran well penultimate start in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (2m4½f soft). Coming from further back than those who beat him, mistake 4 out, finished well but too late, 9¼ lengths 4th. Ran Off this 151 mark last time out in Great Yorkshire Chase – on good ground. May be the longer trip/slower pace enabled Buywise to produce a better jumping display than usual. Hopefully that continues but still doesn’t look a natural. Dropped out, pushed along start of home straight, 3rd over the last, looked a danger run-in, effort petered out close home. Proved he stays 3 miles, 3¾ lengths 3rd giving the winner Ziga Boy 18 lbs… another mile and a quarter here. Better chance of stamina lasting on a sound surface but isn’t crying out for any further increase in trip on any going. State Of Play and Cappa Bleu both finished strongly to be placed in recent Grand Nationals for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney, but Evan Williams isn’t in great form at the moment and doubt Buywise will be so “lucky”.17. 11/32440-50P1 Boston Bob 11: 10-10 Willie Mullins (Ireland) 151 Paul Townend 1% 100/1
Once rated 164, so 151 isn’t a bad mark. Step back in the right direction when fortunate winner of 7 runner Bobbyjoe Chase (3m1f heavy) last time out. Held up on outer, ballooned the first, put in a short one and slow 8 out, took closer order 4 from home, left disputing lead when Mala Beach (who was seemingly going best) fell 2 out hampering the 2nd more than Boston Bob, just got the better of stable/owner companion and now 2 lbs better off with On His Own. Ruby Walsh probably the difference between winning and losing. Wasn’t on board on his two previous starts (neither was Paul Townend) when moody efforts in bigger fields of 18 and 22 runners, Thyestes (3m1f heavy) and Galway Plate (2m6½f good). Mistake 2nd fence and several slow jumps, pulled up before 3 out at former. In latter, pushed along at start, almost unseated 1st, hampered 2nd and last place by 3rd, 55 lengths 13th. Seems best in smaller fields where slow jumps aren’t so important. Paul Townend was on board when winning 10 runner 2014 Melling Chase (2½m good) over Aintree’s Mildmay course by 3¼ lengths from Rolling Aces. Challenged last where slow/jinked right, stayed on. Could stay further than 3m1f, questionable whether he’ll get 4¼m. Boston Bob is usually held up or dropped out the back, difficult tactics to pull off in the Grand National. Inconsistent and Ruby Walsh choosing to ride Sir Des Champs must be a negative.18. /P31P4-411209 Aachen 12: 10-10 Venetia Williams 151 Henry Brooke 0.2% 500/1
Not many of Aachen’s age ever progress the way he has this season, going from a 123 mark to 151 in 3 starts within the space of a month. That improvement coming hand in hand with different tactics, front running. Made all at Wincanton (3m1f soft) before a particularly impressive display of bold jumping at Cheltenham in January (3m2f soft). Off a mark of 133, only slight mistake when pecking 4 out, racing clear under an attacking ride, now 19 lbs worse off with 2nd Wonderful Charm for an easy 17 lengths victory. Upped 13 lbs, improved again in Veterans Chase at Sandown (3m heavy) tracking leader with a clear view of fences, jumped well, driven to lead 3 out – possibly too soon in the conditions and caught close home. Now 2 lbs better off for a head with winner Soll. Upped another 5 lbs, disputed lead to 6 out in Great Yorkshire Chase (3m good) weakened badly straight, 47 lengths last of 11. Again well below form, not jumping anywhere near as well held up in Greatwood Veterans Handicap (3m2f good-soft) last time out. Needs to race prominently. Very best form on soft/heavy but has a good action. Handicapper probably got hold of him now anyway and stable seem in poor form at the moment.19. 3/3-224 Morning Assembly 9: 10-09 Pat Fahy (Ireland) 150 Davy Russell 4% 25/1
Not raced very often since 3rd in 2014 RSA Chase (3m½f good) now 6 lbs better off for 6¼ lengths with winner O’Faolains Boy, 3 lbs worse off for 2¼ lengths with 4th Ballycasey. Jumped well in mid-division on the inner, travelled well in to the race 4 out, a little outpaced 3 out, stayed on straight to take 3rd as front two went clear. Unseen on a racecourse for a year and 9 months. Took in two races over inadequate trips at the beginning of this year before back at a suitable distance and back to form; 17 lengths 4th to Un Temps Pour Tout in Ultima Handicap (3m1f good-soft) at the Cheltenham Festival. Tracked pace, travelled and jumped well until reaching for 3 out, only just getting to the other side and outpaced home turn, bit slow 2 out before staying on, losing 3rd close home. Could be better than distances beaten suggests and usually jumps well. Has 10 lengths to make up on 2nd Holywell and finished 6 lengths in front of 5th Kruzhlinin (who jumped poorly) all three on the same marks here. Morning Assembly has a high head carriage; sire Shantou won 1996 St Leger and usually passes on that stamina, sometimes a bit of temperament too. Yet to race beyond 3m1f, despite the fact he travels easily in his races his best efforts to date are in races testing stamina. Given the trip and fact he’s lightly raced could yet improve. All goings probably come alike to him.20. 5/B3UR60-2459 Double Ross 10: 10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies 150 Ryan Hatch 0.1% 1000/1
Good reappearance in Sodexo Gold Cup (3m good) despite two mistakes. Held up, 7th home turn, came wide and finished well for 2nd after Pendra had flown. Now 6 lbs better off with winner. Ran well next time, in Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m4f good-soft) doing best of those ridden prominently. Tracked pace jumping well, disputed lead from 4 out, led under pressure at last where untidy, no extra. Now 6 lbs better off for 4½ lengths with the unlucky 2nd Buywise. Lost form since, including over these fences in Grand Sefton (2m5f soft). Made 7/2 fav, tracked pace, slight mistake and lost a bit of ground Water, jumping lacked enthusiasm from there-on in (amongst horses) and well beaten before Bechers. Better Aintree performance as a novice, 6/1 favourite for 2014 Topham (2m5f good). Jumped boldly disputing lead, headed 2 out, paid for trying to go with the well-handicapped Ma Filleule who received 2 lbs. Double Ross still 2nd at the Elbow, weakened and lost 4th on line, 10¼ lengths 5th. Inconsistent and possibly best in the Autumn/fresh nowadays. Made running (jumps a lot better in front/with room) last time out at Cheltenham (3m1f good-soft) but below form, weakening quickly 3 out. Probably needs goodish ground to stay 3 miles – this is 4¼m – and Ryan Hatch is a 3 lbs claimer unable to claim in the Grand National. Stable are in good form.21. /2U7312-3942 Goonyella 9: 10-08 Jim Dreaper (Ireland) 149 J J Burke 7.2% 13/1
Probably Ireland’s best hope. Obviously very well suited by an extreme stamina test. Easy 9 lengths winner of Midlands Grand National over 4m1f on very soft ground in March 2015 off a 136 mark. Tracked pace early and led some way out. Upped 10 lbs to 146, a Scottish Grand National 2nd followed in April (4m good). Held up, niggled along before stayed on best of all, never nearer. Beaten ¾ length by Wayward Prince who received 9 lbs. Now only 3 lbs higher on 149, although it is more like 6 lbs considering the same rider can’t claim 3 lbs any more. Back to form last time out (March 2016) runner-up in Leinster National (3m heavy) off a 147 Irish mark. Beaten 6 lengths by better fancied stable/owner companion Venitien De Mai who received 20 lbs. Lost a good pitch before again staying on late; running so well at 3m that it suggests he’s capable of better stepped back up to 4m+. Although Ayr proves he acts on good going, the softer it is the more stamina is at a premium and the fewer rivals will stay. Poor runs in two (November) Becher Chases over Grand National fences. Unseated at the first fence and 44½ lengths last of 9 finishers, jumping fine but beaten by halfway. However, could be wise to ignore those, Goonyella is better in the Spring than Winter and stable were also out of form, particularly so for the second Becher. Jim Dreaper had no winner from 05/06/2015 to 20/01/2016, where as was/is in excellent form Springs of 2015 and 2016. Could be one to be on if the expected rains come overnight.22. /1P-623 Ucello Conti 8: 10-08 Gordon Elliott (Ireland) 149 Daryl Jacob 4% 25/1
Ex-French, had a year off before just 3 races in Ireland (2 in big handicaps) for Gordon Elliott. Two weeks after a pipe opener, tongue strap fitted and ridden (as in France) by French champion Jacques Ricou, 1½ lengths 2nd, giving winner Minella Foru 3 lbs in the Leopardstown Paddy Power (3m½f heavy) off an Irish mark of 137. Mid-division, jumped economically, brought with well timed challenge to lead last but headed halfway up run-in. Given a strange ride by the Frenchman in Thyestes Chase (3m1f heavy) at Gowran Park off 143 last time out (now 6 lbs higher). Did the stewards look in to it? Raced mid-division, going wide wherever trees were on the perimeter apparently in search of better ground, including as wide as possible home turn, giving away many lengths but still travelling well. Dived at 3 out, pecked next, kept on same pace, 6¾ lengths (probably could’ve been closer) 3rd to My Murphy who received 4 lbs. Now 6 lbs worse off with 5th Rule The World for 8 lengths. Raced mainly at around 2½m on a soft surface in France but won a couple on supposedly good-firm. Has a relaxed way of racing and has a good chance of staying this trip even though sire Martaline isn’t as strong a stamina influence as half-brother Silviniaco Conti’s sire Dom Alco. Ucello Conti’s form is difficult to assess for punters and handicapper alike, possibly more improvement to come. Daryl Jacob won the last gasp 2012 Grand National, putting Neptune Collongne’s nose in front on the line.23. /613F8-80312 Unioniste 8: 10-08 Paul Nicholls 149 Nick Scholfield 2.2% 40/1
Mark is down 10 lbs since only 8th in 3m5f (good) Bet365 Gold Cup on final start last season. Had gone up to 159 after an impressive January 2015 success by 10 lengths, off just 1 lb lower (148) than here in 3m soft ground Sandown handicap. Needs conditions putting an emphasis on stamina when racing at 3m and runs at 3¼m as if further will suit him even more. Generally a fairly good jumper of normal fences, but has a poor record in two starts on this course. Fell 5th in last year’s Grand National and only 43 lengths 8th of 9 finishers on reappearance in Becher Chase, already out of contention when mistakes at the 11th and 3 out. Good staying on 3rd at Sandown (3m good-soft) penultimate start off a 150 mark, nearest at the finish. Now 6 lbs better off for 6¼ lengths with winner Le Reve (3m good-soft). Always prominent, won small field conditions event at Kelso (3m2f heavy) penultimate start, race fell apart as market rival Soll disappointed. Runner-up in Kelso Premier Chase (2m7f soft) last time out. Now 12 lbs better off with Many Clouds, but winner had plenty more in hand than 10 lengths winning margin. Unioniste disputed the lead early, no serious errors but out-jumped from the 6th, outpaced back straight and last of seven 2 out, stayed on to take 2nd run-in. Sometimes seems to take less interest and/or a harder ride when in amongst horses, so may not be suited by a 40 runner field. Goes well on a soft surface, unproven at this level on good.24. /1P3123-P02615 Le Reve 8: 10-08 Lucy Wadham 149 Harry Skelton 3% 33/1
Better than 5th placing suggests in Betbright Chase (3m good-soft) off this mark. Only horse to give Theatre Guide a race in the straight and unlike winner (who received 10 lbs) was up with a strong early pace. Unsurprisingly weakening late and beaten 13¼ lengths. Gave impression a 5 lbs rise for his Sandown win (3m good-soft) is far from unfair. At least as good as ever in blinkers last two starts. Now 6 lbs worse off for the 6¼ lengths he beat Sandown 3rd (and subsequent easy winner) Unioniste. Le Reve has good Spring form, excellent 3rd off 147 mark in Bet365 Gold Cup, (3m5½f Good). Now 5 lbs better off for 4 lengths with winner Just A Par, 3 lbs with runner-up Vics Canvas for 2¾. Again possibly better than distances suggest; the only one of principles up there throughout. Has an action usually associated with good ground horses, but equally effective on soft. Usually a good jumper these days. Possibly more improvement to come at this longer trip and is an outsider worth considering although needs to prove himself going left-handed. Mostly either out of his depth or out of form running that way around, with SP,s of 20/1, 25/1, 18/1 and 14/1 – races mainly right-handed and particularly good record at Sandown. Stable aren’t in that good form at present.25. /12243-1U75 Gallant Oscar 10: 10-08 Tony Martin (Ireland) 149 Mark Walsh 6.75% 14/1
Improved since 5¼ lengths 3rd to The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham Festival 3m1f good-soft handicap chase (times on the day suggest good going). Next time out winning Pat Taaffe Handicap (3m1f soft) at Punchestown Festival in May off Irish mark of 135. Stone higher here, however, style and ease of victory suggest warranted rise and more to come. Held up, travelled and jumped well, merely pushed out to win by 9 lengths from Archie Meade who received 13 lbs. Alongside winner when mistake and unseating 7 lb claimer Donagh Meyler 2 out in Paddy Power Chase. First start over fences since unseat; encouraging 15 lengths 5th, giving 21 lbs plus 5 lbs claim to winner Venitien De Main’s in Leinster National (3m Heavy) last time. Dropped out, jumped reasonably although a little slow at times, in contention going to the last but weakened run-in. Almost 9 lengths to make up on runner-up Goonyella and re-opposes on just 1 lb better terms. However, not difficult to see Gallant Oscar resuming progression and has good record in big fields. Raced mainly on soft or heavy but probably acts on good ground too. Bad mistake and unseated before stamina came in to play in 2014 Irish Grand National (3m5f) only start beyond 3m1f. Finished at Cheltenham as if he’ll stay further, how much further is open to a little doubt given how well he travels at lesser trips. Barry Geraghty has chosen Shutthefrontdoor, but Gallant Oscar looks to have at least as good a chance. Looks overpriced at around 20/1.26. /211-1225 Onenightinvienna 7: 10-08 Philip Hobbs 149 Tom O’Brien 1.5% 66/1
Seven year old novice with experience of 4 steeplechases (1 win) none of more than 7 runners. Doesn’t sound great, but Onenightinvienna has jumped impeccably so far – lot better than some. Races prominently so 40 runners may not concern him too much if getting away well and won a Point with 14 runners. Began chase career with similar performances, outpaced – stayed on. Victory by 1¼ lengths from Fletchers Flyer (3m heavy). Good 2½ lengths 2nd to subsequent RSA winner Black Lion (3m1f soft) and head 2nd to Local Show (3m soft) – all at level weights. Disappointing latest start (February) 18 lengths last of 5 finishers in Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novice (3m soft). Did first time cheek pieces have an adverse affect? Put on to liven him up, set too fast a pace and leaders capitulated, even so should have done better. If all remains well can show improvement for stamina and jumping test. Needs to – as handicapper hasn’t let him in lightly off 149; Vyta Du Rock only 145 for winning Reynoldstown! Onenightinvienna has raced only on a soft surface, action suggests good ground won’t be a problem. Runs in the colours of 1986 Grand National winner West Tip. Tom O’Brien has been on board in all his chases, not stable number one and champion jockey elect Richard Johnson.27. /211U12-311 The Last Samuri 8: 10-08 Kim Bailey 149 David Bass 13.2% 13/2
Trainer Kim Bailey won the Grand National with Mr Frisk back in 1990 and has a good chance of victory again. The Last Samuri appears to have all the attributes wanted for this race. Went down by just a neck only start on good ground in April last year, but that still (up to then) a career best performance. Does not have the round action usually associated with a soft ground performer either and trainer believes he’s unsuited by heavy. Probably equally effective between soft or good ground. Won William Hill Handicap (3m good-soft) at Kempton in December off a 140 mark, staying on after looking beaten 4 out to win going away by 1¼ lengths, giving the 2nd Viva Steve 13 lbs; with 14 lengths back to the 3rd. Had a break before winning Grimthorpe Chase off this 149 mark last time out, by 10 lengths from The Druids Nephew and meets runner-up (the 2015’s Grand National “unlucky horse”) under identical terms here. Grimthorpe is the furthest The Last Samuri has raced (3m2f soft) and runs as if the Aintree test is bound to bring more improvement. Isn’t the biggest horse but has a spring-heeled accurate leap of normal fences, rarely touching a twig. Often pushed along some way out over the trips he’s been racing at, but has always found when asked, even more so when stamina kicks in. With 8 wins from 14 starts, a strike rate of over 57% is rarely seen for a handicapper, as genuine, consistent and progressive as they come he’s a courageous street fighter. If the handicapper could frame the weights again The Last Samuri would have another 12 lbs to carry.28. 0/72-1 Kruzhlinin 9: 10-07 Philip Hobbs 148 Richard Johnson 3.25% 28/1
Failed in two races over these fences in 2014 although not really fancied in either race. Grand National 10th (good) 100/1, last place early, mistake water and slight error next, some progress second circuit, blundered and almost unseated 2nd Valentines, under pressure 3 out, 15th over the last, ran on past non-stayers, 42 lengths behind Pineau De Re off a 143 mark. Down to 139 in same year’s Becher (3m2f good-soft) 15½ lengths 7th to Oscar Time. 33/1, towards rear, niggly errors, under pressure 3 out, stayed on. Changed stables from Donald McCain to Philip Hobbs and first run for 49 weeks… Well backed 5/2 favourite, won 7 runner handicap at right-handed Kempton (3m soft, off a 138 mark) showing improved form. Tracked pace, put in short one and mistake first, jumped ok thereafter but to the left when putting himself right. Now on 10 lbs higher mark and 8 lbs worse off for 5 lengths with 2nd Le Reve. Could improve again back on a left-handed track although needs to if he’s to defy a career high 148 mark. Better than result last time out in Ultima handicap at Cheltenham (3m1f good-soft) again racing on rail. Tracked pace, travelled and jumped well until bad mistake 4 out, losing ground and confidence – another error 3 out ending any chance, 23 lengths 5th to Un Temps Pour Tout (levels). Has 16 lengths to make up on 2nd Holywell and 6 lengths with 4th Morning Assembly, both re-oppose on same weight terms here. The way Kruzhlinin finishes races at 3m2f he should stay further and is possibly best with give in the ground. Champion Jockey elect is yet to win the Grand National, coming close with Balthazar King in 2014.29. 6/225222-6S32254 Rule The World 9: 10-07 Mouse Morris (Ireland) 148 David Mullins 0.25% 400/1
Second season novice,“Maiden chaser” doesn’t do Rule The World justice. However, although doesn’t do anything noticeably wrong in a finish – when a horse is 2nd 7 times in 13 starts over fences got to wonder about temperament. Sometimes wears cheek pieces and once hooded. Last runner-up spot was in December, Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase (3m heavy). Disputed last of 4 runners, jumped and travelled well, improved position 2 out, outpaced by owner-mate No More Heroes before last fence and beaten 9 lengths. Trainer Mouse Morris won the Irish Grand National with Rogue Angel a couple of weeks ago and Rule The World was 4¼ lengths 2nd there last year (3m5f soft) off an Irish mark of 141, giving winner (another owner-mate) Thunder And Roses 5 lbs. Tracked pace, jumped left (in to a rival) 2nd, turned for home in 2nd, mistake and pecked 3 out, stayed on. Fair 14¾ lengths 5th in Thyestes (3m1f heavy) off this 148 mark penultimate start; jumping well bar a bit slow 6th, under pressure before 3 out, plugged on. Below form last time out in Grade 3 Novice (2m4f heavy). Length down and hampered 3 out – losing at least 3 lengths, pushed along to get back in to it before next, outpaced run-in. Needs further than 2½m these days and stays 3m5f on soft so shouldn’t have any problem with 4¼m – at least on a sound surface. Has a bit of a rounded action but had hurdles form on good; 13¾ lengths 6th to More Of That in 2013 World Hurdle (3m good). Also 4 lengths 2nd to The New One in 2012 Neptune Hurdle (2m5f good-soft). Can’t be a positive owner Gigginstown’s first jockey Brian Cooper has made a very late switch off Rule The World on to First Lieutenant.30. /5P42031-092 Just A Par 9: 10-06 Paul Nicholls 147 Sean Bowen 1% 100/1
Improved first start over an extreme trip to win Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5½f good). Jumped well, ran in snatches early, last after a circuit, made ground back straight, 9th 3 out and close 5th at the last, powered up the Sandown hill. Now 2 lbs worse off for 1¼ lengths with 2nd Vics Canvas, 5 lbs worse for 4 lengths with 3rd Le Reve. Last to first looks impressive, but in truth Just A Par took advantage of leaders going too fast too soon. Ran off 140 less jockey’s 3 lb claim; Sean Bowen is on board again only this time is without a claim, so Just A Par is effectively 10 lbs higher here. Beaten 35¾ lengths on reappearance, 33 second start. Back to form last time out in Class 2 handicap at Exeter (3m good) off this 147 mark, 4½ lengths 2nd to Three Faces West giving winner 18 lbs. Without blinkers, raced mid-division, jumped economically, had to be pushed along past racecourse exit, got closer 8 out, flat out from home turn, no inroads on winner who this time wasn’t stopping. Possibly at his very best on good ground. Often looks as if he’s got his own ideas about the game, could be more progress back over further if taking to the course. Pulled up in 2014 Becher, lost a lot of ground going wide around the corners of Becher, Foinavon and Canal Turn; including a mistake at the smallest obstacle – Foinavon – and seemingly putting the brakes on and slow at Canal Turn. Going seems to be going against him.31. F4430/P-P0 Katenko 10:10-06 Venetia Williams 147 Will Kennedy 0.8% 800/1
Trainer rode 200/1 shot Marcolo in Rhyme And Reason’s 1988 Grand National, as the winner made a remarkable recovery at Bechers Miss Williams headed for the ground. Twenty-one years later teamed up with jockey Liam Treadwell to win with 100/1 Mon Mome. Their representative this year is similar odds; could make a case Katenko is well handicapped if going back far enough. Now back to last winning mark of 147, and won that 2013 Murphy Group Chase (2m5f heavy) by 12 lengths, gave 8 lbs to 2nd Fruity O’Rooney. Jumped efficiently, moved up to dispute it 6 out, bump mid-air left him in front 3 out, stormed clear. Fell in that year’s Hennessey. Ran well January 2014 off much bigger 155 mark, in Peter Marsh Chase at an increased 3m1f trip (again heavy). Mistakes 9th and 10th, pushed along home turn, every chance – short of room and lost ground last, stayed on close home but too late, just over 2 lengths 4th giving winner Wychwoods Brook 18 lbs. Not much encouragement in five starts since although hasn’t had very soft for last four: On Ascot reappearance (3m good-soft), got in close 9th and 10th, tracking pace when came to a standstill 12th and pulled up. Last time out – just three weeks ago – in Ultima handicap (3m1f good-soft) not fluent 58½ lengths 13th. Katenko should stay further than 3m1f if all is well with him, needs to brush up his jumping.32. /54213U2-85P6 Vics Canvas 13: 10-06 Dermot McLoughlin (Ireland) 147 Robert Dunne 2% 50/1
Runner-up in 3m5f (good) Bet365 Gold Cup off a 142 mark, now 2 lb better off for 1¼ lengths with winner Just A Par and 3 lbs worse off for 2¾ lengths with 3rd Le Reve. Suited by coming from the back off an overly strong pace. Raced on outer, slight error 1st on the second circuit, progressed back straight, squeezed up between railway fences, stayed on under hard hand riding to be a close 4th at the last, took it up run-in but immediately passed by one coming from even further back. Had the benefit of Ruby Walsh and doesn’t here. Good run this season ridden by Robert Dunne, off 148 in Becher Chase (3m1½f officially good-soft, times on the day suggest softer) 5th but beaten just 3¾ lengths behind Highland Lodge who received 16 lbs. Tracked pace jumping accurately, disputed lead from Valentines, couldn’t quicken 2 out. Now 8 lbs better off for ½ a length with 4th Soll. Below best since: Tackled better company in Bobbyjoe chase (3m1f heavy) last time out, but should’ve done better. Eased off when chance had gone, 25 lengths last of 6 finishers and only 4 lbs better off with winner Boston Bob. Is he being trained with one race in mind? Or is age catching up with him? No 13 year old has won the Grand National since Sergeant Murphy in 1923, but not many have tried and Vics Canvas only came to chasing at the age of 11, so not as much mileage on the clock as many teenagers and a career best at 12 over the furthest he’s raced. Possible to make a case he’s “unexposed” over marathon distances. Also won 2014 Cork Grand National (3m4f soft) off an Irish 118 mark, unseated at the first in Irish Grand National. Acts on soft and good ground. Part owned by At The Races presenter Gary O’Brien. The more rain that falls the better for him and is possibly best of the 100/1+ shots.33. /2157-0U6 Black Thunder 9: 10-06 Paul Nicholls 147 Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 0.2% 500/1
Mark has dropped 8 lbs in three starts since 19¼ lengths 7th in 2015 Ultima Handicap off 155; is 17 lbs better off with winner The Druids Nephew. Mid-division, outpaced 5 out, stayed on late, never threatening. Well handicapped on 8½ lengths 5th in 2015 Betbright Cup (3m1½f soft). Disputed lead jumping well until outpaced 4 out, slight mistake next, stayed on. Now 20 lbs better off with winner Many Clouds. Black Thunder has been below form this season due in part to jumping errors. Reappearance in Murphy Group Chase (3m3f good-soft) off 153. Held up, headway under pressure, jumped well until… 4 lengths down and chance of a place when slithered on landing 2 out, losing momentum, much better than 20¾ lengths 12th suggests. Way he stays on at around 3¼m looks worth upping in trip. Stable in poor form at time of disappointing in Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy) beaten before unseating 13th. Blunder 16th put paid to chance last time too, 42½ lengths 6th of 7 finishers. Formerly a good leaper, needs to cut out the one or two errors. Probably acts on any going. If connections thought Black Thunder has a reasonable chance, why auction him off on Thursday? He’s been bought by Robert Waley-Cohen and his son gets the ride. The jockey is no negative, has a better record around Aintree than any rider. Won the one circuit races many times and placed in the Grand National more than once.34. PB-4935 Ballycasey 9: 10-6 Willie Mullins (Ireland) 147 Ms Katie Walsh 0.125% 800/1
The Ricci/Mullins horse is a doubtful stayer. First time cheek pieces latest start, 10½ lengths 5th to Empire Of Dirt who received 5 lbs in 2m4½f Cheltenham Festival handicap (good) off this 147 mark. Dropped out, still going well (it’s not that he needs further) in 9th home turn, no chance with those in front. Has never impressed with his finishing effort in races of 3m+, including 23½ lengths 9th in Thyestes (3m1f heavy). Weakened badly after still going reasonably in front turning for home. Similar story in closing stages of Pat Taaffe Chase (3m1f good-yielding) previous start. Dropped out this time, headway 3 out, 4th and close enough if good enough, no extra. Now 17 lbs better off but winner Gallant Oscar had plenty more in hand than 14¼ lengths gap suggests. Also looked likely winner taking it up 3 out in 2014 RSA (3m½f good). Now 9 lbs better off for 8½ lengths with winner O’Faolains Boy and 3 lbs better with 3rd Morning Assembly for 2¼. Ballycasey usually jumps well, as he did in the Grand National last year before brought down at the Canal Turn (8th). Katie Walsh was placed in the Grand National on Seabass.35. 1/6P-7 Hadrian’s Approach 9:10-06 Nicky Henderson 147 Nico De Boinville 1.5% 66/1
Lightly raced and must have had training problems. Unexposed at marathon distances, last time he raced beyond 3m2f won the 2014 Bet365 Gold Cup (3m 5½f good-soft) jumping better than usual. Gave Burton Port 5 lbs and beat him ¾ length off a mark just one pound less (146) than here. Obviously not handicapped out of things if able to reproduce that April 2014 effort. Encouraging reappearance off this 147 mark, especially considering three miles on good-soft probably an inadequate stamina test these days; 15¼ lengths 7th in Betbright Chase, giving winner Theatre Guide 4 lbs. As usual held up and racing out wide presumably to get a good view of fences. Won’t be ideal if trying the same tactics around sharp turns of Bechers, Foinavon and Canal Turn. Doesn’t make many bad mistakes, not a natural either, chance often ruined with niggling errors and slow leaps, losing ground at obstacles. Goes on soft as well as good ground. Top trainer Nicky Henderson is yet to win the Grand National, came closest with runner-ups Zongalero 1979 and The Tsarevich 1987.36. /390-111F26 Vieux Lion Rouge 7: 10-05 David Pipe 146 James Reveley 0.2% 500/1
Started chase career with a couple of easy odds-on victories in novice chases in the Summer at 2m6f (good-soft) and 2m3f (good). Then won a Haydock 3m (soft) class 2 handicap in November off a mark of 139. Mid-division, reached for and mistake 4th, soon recovered from losing ground after being jumped in to at 11th, left in front 3 out, three lengths up and seemingly in control when slowed dramatically going to the last – losing momentum, joined but pulled out more again run-in. Gave Sun Cloud a lb and beat him 4 lengths. Fell when favourite (3m2f soft) pushed along and no chance with clear leader/winner Aachen, disputing 2nd 3 out when unable to get landing gear out in time, had gone through the top of same fence previous circuit. Good 2nd (3m soft) to 12 lengths winner Sausalito Sunrise (who gave 4 lbs) in Ascot Listed handicap. Mistake 2nd, a touch keen, mistake 13th (open ditch) and dropped back to last of 5, recovered and going best of all home turn – outstayed. Better than able to show last time out, 6th of 20 in the amateur riders National Hunt Chase (4m good-soft) at Cheltenham. Blundered at the first open ditch and reached for the second, headway from 4 out. Looked winner rounding the home turn and blatantly did not stay a truly run 4 miles, folding badly and crossing the line 20 lengths behind winner Minella Rocco. Finished tired and only has 3 weeks to recuperate. Vieux Lion Rouge usually races mid-division and travels strongly, hasn’t jumped ditches very well; acts on both soft and good, but the softer it is the more stamina needed. Seemed quirky at Haydock, as if may be suited by challenging as late as possible.37. /45-15 Pendra 8: 10-05 Charlie Longsdon 146 Aidan Coleman 0.125% 800/1
Good reappearance win in Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot (3m good) off 6 lbs lower than here (140). Possibly helped by a slowish first half of the race. Tracked pace on outer, travelled well, pecked 7 out, quickened between last 2, didn’t need to be hard ridden and value for more than 3¼ lengths margin, is 6 lbs worse off with runner-up Double Ross. Pendra runs well fresh – lightly raced – so the fact he hasn’t run since December could be a positive. Ability-wise ran better than 10¼ lengths 5th suggests in Sodexo Silver Cup (3m good-soft) again at Ascot; giving winner Wakanda 4 lb. Favourite, mid-division on outer, slight mistake 4th, moved closer 7 out, travelled well to home turn, with leaders and mistake last, losing a little ground but Pendra then seemed to down tools under pressure run-in. Worn cheek pieces last three starts, first of which in 2014 Ultima handicap (3m1f good-soft) 5th. Travelled well to 3 out where slight error, every chance and pecked 2 out, disputing 2nd at last, ruined chance of a place by wandering both right then left run-in. Gallant Oscar in 3rd has probably improved more than Pendra since, but is 9 lbs better off for just over 3¼ lengths and 3 lbs better with winner The Druids Nephew for 8½ lengths. Thought best by connections on goodish ground, Pendra is a quirky sort who may not be suited by the long run-in or this extreme trip. Aidan Coleman was on board the possibly unlucky faller The Druids Nephew last year, very little chance this year and even less with every drop of rain that falls.38. /33312-671 Saint Are 10: 10-05 Tom George 146 Paddy Brennan 4.75% 20/1
Terrific record at this meeting, twice a winner of handicaps. Isn’t badly treated off a mark 3 lbs higher than when runner-up in last year’s Grand National. Now 2 lbs better off with winner Many Clouds for 1¾ lengths. On identical terms with both 4th Alvorado despite a 9½ lengths gap and 6th Royale Knight despite 13¼ lengths; 10 lbs worse with 5th Shutthefrontdoor for 11 lengths. Saint Are lucky to stay on his feet at the 1st fence, lesser errors at 14th, 18th and second Bechers; so jumping not always flawless but can be bold and make ground when getting it right. Didn’t when a poor 32 lengths 7th of 9 finishers in Becher Chase (3m2f soft) in December. Bad mistake final open ditch and not knocked about run-in once chance had gone. Forget that run as comes alive in the Spring. Back to form, won veterans chase at Doncaster last time out (3m Good) off this 146 mark in late February. Getting the run of race from the front, looked in trouble before particularly good jumps in the home straight and fighting his rivals off; gave runner-up Grandad’s Horse 12 lbs and a ¾ length beating. Saint Are is genuine when racing prominently and at his very best on good-soft or good. Easy to see him figuring again although there may be one or two with more scope for improvement. Stable in excellent form, Gods Own winning the Melling yesterday, connections won’t want to see much rain overnight though.39. /1F7P8-46 Home Farm 9: 10-04 Henry De Bromhead (Ireland) 145 Andrew Lynch 0.2% 500/1
Unseen over fences this season, what to make of two conditions hurdle runs is difficult. Isn’t as good in that sphere as evident of 19 lbs inferior hurdles mark. Off four months before latest effort in February, 16¾ lengths 6th of 9 receiving 9 lbs from winner Great Field (2m2f soft). Led at a modest pace to 4th, dropped to 4th 3 out, pushed along to dispute 2nd again 2 out, weakened. Last run over fences 46½ lengths last of 8 finishers to Menorah in a listed Chase (2m6f good) at Sandown on final start of last season. Ran as though amiss; jumped off prominent but slow at first and continued to jump ponderously, eased home straight. Also pulled up when outclassed in 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f soft). For any meaningful form need to go back to a fair 21¾ lengths 7th of 8 finishers to Carlingford Lough in 2015 Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup (3m yielding). Tracked pace on outer, put in short one 8 out, mistake 6 out, still 2nd 3 out, weakened. Won 2m6f listed chase at Thurles (soft). Jumped better than usual, racing prominently, led 3 out, challenged again and left in a clear lead at the last by the fall of Hidden Cyclone who gave 7 lbs. Home Farm is possibly best on a soft surface. Never looked happy in 2014 Irish Grand National (3m5f good-yielding), pulled up home turn. Much better in 2013 renewal (yielding-soft) despite several minor errors and squeezed 3 out, proving he stays with a 3 lengths 3rd, giving winner Liberty Council 9 lbs. Inconsistent these days.40. /111-77F38 The Romford Pele 9: 10-04 Rebecca Curtis 145 Trevor Whelan 2% 50/1
Named by Sir A P McCoy after ex-Arsenal footballer Ray Parlour. The (equine) Romford Pele ran up a hat-trick last season after the application of blinkers. Best of which came in the 2014 Summer Cup (3m2f good) at Uttoxetter, off a 139 mark. Held up, squeezed up 1st, mistake 9th, untidy next, made ground gradually, another error 16th, led 2 out, left clear last. Beat Carlito Brigante 14 lengths giving him 2 lbs. Not seen for almost a year after winning a novice chase in October 2014 (3m½f good). Probably needed reappearance, beaten 30 lengths. Then never nearer 6 lengths 7th giving winner Sausalito Sunrise 4 lbs and off a 148 mark in Murphy Group Chase (3m3f good-soft) at Cheltenham’s November meeting. Dropped out, untidy 2nd, mistake first open ditch and again 15th, still with 13 rivals ahead of him 3 out, stayed on strongly but couldn’t catch leaders. Jumping went to pieces next start – even before falling. Switched to hurdles and achieved a career best in that sphere in Cleeve Hurdle (3m heavy). 50/1, 14 lengths 3rd, to impressive Thistlecrack won as he liked; but was only 2 lengths behind Petit Zig at level weights. Again ran well over inadequate, modestly run 2m5f on good ground in Coral Cup. Held up, outpaced when pace quickened 4 out, stayed on from home turn. Beaten 4 lengths by Diamond King who was giving 9 lbs. The Romford Pele acts on both good and heavy ground. Considering recent hurdles form could improve back over fences given a greater stamina test. Stable in excellent form, trouble is will need to put in his best ever round of jumping.My 100% book for soft ground:
Bold are better on betfair. Price is my assessment of their fair chance/price, in brackets are the current Betfair odds if better than my odds. Capitals are at odds far enough over my assessment to warrant a main bet, lower case are worth a saver.
THE LAST SAMURI 13/2 (13.5/1), MANY CLOUDS 13/2 (10.5/1), GOONYELLA 13/1 (20/1), Holywell 14/1 (18.5/1), Gallant Oscar 14/1 (18.5/1), The Druids Nephew 20/1, Saint Are 20/1, O’FAOLAINS BOY 22/1 (35/1), Silviniaco Conti 25/1, Shutthefrontdoor 25/1, Morning Assembly 25/1, Ucello Conti 25/1 (33/1), LE REVE 33/1 (84/1), Unioniste 40/1, Sir Des Champs 50/1, VICS CANVAS 50/1 (159/1, The Romford Pele 50/1, Onenightinvienna 66/1, Hadrians Approach 66/1, Boston Bob 100/1, Just A Par 100/1, Triolo D’Alene 200/1, Soll 200/1, First Lieutenant 300/1, Rule The World 300/1, Gilgamboa 400/1, On His Own 400/1, Wonderful Charm 500/1, Rocky Creek 500/1, Buywise 500/1, Aachen 500/1, Black Thunder 500/1, Vieux Lion Rouge 500/1, Home Farm 500/1, Ballynagour 800/1, Katenko 800/1, Ballycasey 800/1, Pendra 800/1, Double Ross 1000/1.Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
another saver:
4 points @ 40/1 (SJ) O’Faolains Boy (min 28/1)On the whole I am going to keep Many Clouds and The Last Samuri as the two big bets, Goonyella is a normal win. Have laid a bit of Le Reve back, but his price is has increased since. Probably have a few more savers.
8 points @ 18/1 (WH) Holywell (min 16/1)
7 points @ 179/1 (betfair) Vics Canvas* (min 66/1)5 points @ 31/1 (betfair) Ucello Conti (min 30/1)
Value Is Everything
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