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2:25 Ascot
57 points @ 11/4 (PP) Waldorf Salad* (min 11/4)
saver:
23 points @ 11/4 (betfair) Sausalito Sunrise (min 11/4)(£55 available)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:40 Haydock
saver first:
16 points @ 5/1 (PP) Mountainous (min 5/1)54 points @ 6/1 (B365) Rigadin De Beauchene* (min 5/1)
Value Is EverythingYou’ll probably get better than 6/1 for the above bet when markets open in the morning, but you’ll need to be quick.
Value Is EverythingI can’t work out why Rigadin De Beauchene isn’t at least joint favourite. Brought down last time when still travelling well, time before won in impressive style and has won off higher marks than runs off here. I believe he’s best in a small field where able to get either the lead or a clear view of his fences. There are two other front runners, although can’t see Bishops Road wanting to encourage a fast pace/stamina test (doubtful stayer). Gas Line Boy could mix it, but Rigadin should be able to get a prominent posi’. Loves an out and out stamina test, won this before and as long as what happened last time hasn’t dented his confidence it’ll take a good one to get by. I rate him a fair 4/1.
Mountainous, I had a good win on him in the Welsh National, but he’s gone up quite a bit for that and this isn’t Chepstow.
Broadway Buffalo has two ways of running and can hit one or two too, if showing his form has a good chance, but isn’t as likely as some to give his running. Although seems to go well for Katie Walsh.
Gas Line Boy was going ok when coming to grief last time, but he often travels well before finding nowt and stable haven’t had a winner in yonks.
Cloudy Too – like Mountainous – has gone up a lot for winning last time, unlike the Welsh National winner isn’t sure to be suited by an out and out stamina test.
Same thing goes for Bishops Road, in fact even more so. Has potential, but at this trip???
Minella On Line doesn’t seem to be enjoying his racing at the moment and stable going through another lean spell, so can’t see him returning to form.
Can see Harry The Viking running well in to a place, trouble is he doesn’t win! Interested in HTV as a saver, but may be a better place only bet than win only. Will look in the morning.Value Is EverythingSimon Rowlands has come to similar conclusions
Ultimately, it is price that determines everything. My odds line (done blind: you will have to believe me in this) went: 5/2 Mountainous; 9/2 Cloudy Too and Rigadin de Beauchene; 7/1 Gas Line Boy; 9/1 Bishops Road; 11/1 Harry The Viking and Broadway Buffalo; and 25/1 Minella On Line (108% book).
Given the early odds available, support of Mountainous and Rigadin de Beauchene – the two most over-priced horses by my reckoning – looks justified, while the layers amongst you may want to get against Broadway Buffalo and Gas Line Boy.
Harry The Viking may seem correctly priced, more or less, in the win market, but he should probably be no bigger than 3.0 in the place-only market.
Siding with two in a field of eight, one of them the favourite, is hardly adventurous, but both Mountainous (7/2 in the early betting) and Rigadin de Beauchene (7/1) look to have plenty going for them in a race which promises to be merciless in exposing any weaknesses.
Recommendations: 2 pts win MOUNTAINOUS, 1 pt win RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
Think maybe old Flemensfirth might have dodgy knees by now – his nipper might run okay though
Good luck today Ginge.
From what i can see Broadway Buffalo has had 4 attempts in this grade without success. Maybe his jumping is put under too much pressure by the quality of horse he`s up against once the pace increases?
Race Of The Day
2:40 Haydock
saver first:
16 points @ 5/1 (PP) Mountainous (min 5/1)54 points @ 6/1 (B365) Rigadin De Beauchene* (min 5/1)
I’ve taken a bit of 1.76/1 for a place Harry The Viking, but can’t put it up as a bet because is no longer available. Suggest half a saver of 26 points if it becomes available again.
Value Is EverythingSimon Rowlands has come to similar conclusions
Ultimately, it is price that determines everything. My odds line (done blind: you will have to believe me in this) went: 5/2 Mountainous; 9/2 Cloudy Too and Rigadin de Beauchene; 7/1 Gas Line Boy; 9/1 Bishops Road; 11/1 Harry The Viking and Broadway Buffalo; and 25/1 Minella On Line (108% book).
Given the early odds available, support of Mountainous and Rigadin de Beauchene – the two most over-priced horses by my reckoning – looks justified, while the layers amongst you may want to get against Broadway Buffalo and Gas Line Boy.
Harry The Viking may seem correctly priced, more or less, in the win market, but he should probably be no bigger than 3.0 in the place-only market.
Siding with two in a field of eight, one of them the favourite, is hardly adventurous, but both Mountainous (7/2 in the early betting) and Rigadin de Beauchene (7/1) look to have plenty going for them in a race which promises to be merciless in exposing any weaknesses.
Recommendations: 2 pts win MOUNTAINOUS, 1 pt win RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
They say great minds think alike Kasparov. :lol:
Seems a bit strange for a punter to work out a 108% book.
Suppose it’s so punters can judge Simon’s book against bookmakers. tbh Although I do believe Mountainous is value at the current 5/1 (11/2 in a place) think he’s massively over-estimated Mountainous chance for the reasons I’ve given. Expected to be against Mountainous until seeing the prices. Lack of confidence in the market is a bit worrying though. Think Rowlands has under-estimated Broadway Buffalo by quite a bit too. Agree, Gas Line Boy would be a Lay in my book if so inclined. When a horse has such a difficult job winning that Harry The Viking has and yet places so often – and goes so well at Haydock – has a much better chance as a place only bet than win and each way odds imply. He’s 8/1 at the moment, quarter odds would be 2/1, so 7/4 – without needing to back to win – is a good price.My 100% book:
20% 4/1 Rigadin De Beauchene, 20% 4/1 Mountainous, 14.5% 6/1 Broadway Buffalo, 11.75% 15/2 Cloudy Too, 11.75% 15/2 Gas Line Boy, 10%% 9/1 Harry The Viking (win only price), 10% 10/1 Bishops Road, 2% 50/1 Minella On Line.Those prices put in to a 110% book similar to Simon’s:
7/2 Rigadin De Beauchene, 7/2 Mountainous, 11/2 Broadway Buffalo, 7/1 Cloudy Too, 7/1 Gas Line Boy, 8/1 Harry The Viking (again win only price), 9/1 Bishops Road, 33/1 Minella On Line.Value Is EverythingFrom what i can see Broadway Buffalo has had 4 attempts in this grade without success. Maybe his jumping is put under too much pressure by the quality of horse he`s up against once the pace increases?
Good point Softie.
Value Is EverythingThink maybe old Flemensfirth might have dodgy knees by now – his nipper might run okay though
Good luck today Ginge.
Oops!
Flemenstar, not Flemensfirth.
Value Is EverythingGrand National
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)Value Is Everything^
I was hoping to wait until NRNB, but with Jamie Lynch tipping Le Reve up this morning had to get on.Value Is EverythingBets in four races last weekend, three winners Vyta Du Roc, Sausalito Sunrise and Silviniaco Conti. But all three only saving bets so made a loss on the day. :lol:
Value Is EverythingGrand National
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
I was wrong about this horse on Saturday, proved his stamina.Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*Grand National
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
Saint Are (runs in 3:30 Donny today) has disappointed a bit this season. I’ve laid him back at the same 33/1 price as I backed him. Now 37/1 for the Lay, if able to lay @ 35/1 or less before the 3:30, suggest doing so.
Value Is Everything^ Having said that. Have just worked out the 3:30:
Race Of The Day
3:30 Doncaster
26 points @ 12/1 (sportingbet (and betfair)) Saint Are* (min 10/1)
50 points @ 4.5/1 (betfair) Night In Milan* (min 4/1)(£51 available)
saver:
23 points @ 100/30 (PP) Godsmejudge (min 100/30)Value Is Everything
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