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2:05 Newcastle
61 points @ 5/1 (WH) Top Notch* (min 4/1)saver:
19 points @ 100/30 (B365) Irving (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingEvery time my faith in this horse starts to diminish bookmakers offer a price I can’t resist.
3:00 Sandown
35 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Sire De Grugy* (min 13/2)(£123 available)Value Is EverythingEvery time my faith in this horse starts to diminish bookmakers offer a price I can’t resist.
3:00 Sandown
35 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Sire De Grugy* (min 13/2)(£123 available)41 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Special Tiara* (min 7/2)
Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
1:55 Sandown
62 points @ 7/4 (Sportsbook) Bristol De Mai* (min 7/4)Value Is Everything1:40 Aintree
26 points @ 14/1 (B365) No Planning* (min 12/1)24 points @ 12/1 (PP) Unioniste* (min 10/1)
Value Is Everything1:40 Aintree
26 points @ 14/1 (B365) No Planning* (min 12/1)24 points @ 12/1 (PP) Unioniste* (min 10/1)
22 points @ 12/1 (PP) Pineau De Re* (min 11/1)
Value Is Everything1:40 Aintree
26 points @ 14/1 (B365) No Planning* (min 12/1)24 points @ 12/1 (PP) Unioniste* (min 10/1)
22 points @ 12/1 (PP) Pineau De Re* (min 11/1)
savers:
11 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Goonyella (min 8/1)(£81 available)
10 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Algernon Pazham (min 17/2)(£484 available)Value Is Everything1:40 Aintree
26 points @ 14/1 (B365) No Planning* (min 12/1)24 points @ 12/1 (PP) Unioniste* (min 10/1)
22 points @ 12/1 (PP) Pineau De Re* (min 11/1)
savers:
11 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Goonyella (min 8/1)(£81 available)
10 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Algernon Pazham (min 17/2)(£484 available)9 points @ 10.5/1 (betfair) Thunder And Roses (min 9/1)(£84 available)
Value Is Everything3:20 Aintree
17 points @ 25/1 (SJ) Witness In Court* (min 20/1)
17 points @ 25/1 (SJ) Distime* (min 20/1)
19 points @ 16/1 (B65) Mwaleshi* (min 14/1)
22 points @ 14/1 (WH) Rathlin* (min 12/1)Value Is Everything3:20 Aintree
17 points @ 25/1 (SJ) Witness In Court* (min 20/1)
17 points @ 25/1 (SJ) Distime* (min 20/1)
19 points @ 16/1 (B65) Mwaleshi* (min 14/1)
22 points @ 14/1 (WH) Rathlin* (min 12/1)savers:
17 points @ 5/1 (B365) Double Ross (min 5/1)
11 points @ 8/1 (PP) Poole Master (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingQueen Mother Champion Chase
18 points @ 40/1 (B365) Sire De Grugy* (min 28/1)Value Is EverythingHi mark I was wondering. What is your percentage of error when it comes to your 100% book?
Hi mark I was wondering. What is your percentage of error when it comes to your 100% book?
Hi Theo,
My margin for error varies, depending on how difficult I think a race (sometimes the individual horse) is to work out.Some horses I might have no mark up needed because of its consistency and temperament. Some in the same race I might need a bigger margin for error. Although I do bare in mind one horse’s greater difficulty in assessing its worth will have some effect on another’s chance.
Some (by no means all) 4yo+ conditions events on the Flat or conditions races for established chasers/hurdlers over jumps – in some of these races there is next to no going, trip and pace issues, unlikely anything will improve and what all runners are capable of is “ulta easy” to assess, their ability is almost factual and not “opinion”.
Horses/races I belive are “difficult” to weigh up I may want three prices above my assessment. So with “difficult” horses: If assessing something as a fair 4/1 chance, I would not back it @ 9/2 or 5/1, but would @ 11/2+. Or if assessing something as a fair 20/1 I would not back it @ 22/1 or 25/1, but would @ 28/1+.
However, vast majority of races/horses are neither ultra easy or difficult, for these “moderates” the mark up is two prices. So in this case the horse I assess a fair 4/1 chance I would not back @ 9/2 but would @ 5/1. The one I’ve assessed fair 20/1 chance I would not back it @ 22/1 but would @ 25/1.
ie It’s a similar strategy to how much mark up a bookmaker adds to his 100% book to offer clients. Those horses/races whose ability is easy to assess gets a smaller mark up, those more difficult to assess get a larger mark up.
Hope that helps Theo.
Value Is Everything12:00 Cheltenham
50 points @ 7/2 (WH) Fletcher’s Flyer* (min 100/30)
savers:
20 points @ 7/2 (L) Blacklion (min 7/2)
14 points @ 5/1 (B365) Oneknightinvienna (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
1:45 Cheltenham
53 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Sausalito Sunrise* (min 4/1)(£691 available)
28 points @ 10/1 (B365) Shuil Royale* (min 8/1)Value Is Everything
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