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Lossiemouth is a “negative”, in that I very much doubt she will be near her best Nathan.
However, the market also believes her a negative and my last line in that paragraph is important:
“Although she has quite a lot in hand anyway, so does not need to be at her best to win”.She has around 10 lbs in hand of the second best mare (Jade De Grugy who’s my main bet)…
And if Jade De Grugy does not run to form Lossiemouth currently has a stone in hand of the third best horse. ie If the second best horse (My main bet) runs to form Lossiemouth can afford to run a fair way below her best and still win… And if the second best horse runs poorly Lossiemouth can run a long way below her best and still win.If I was confident of Lossiemouth running to form I’d be making her a 2/5 71% chance.
With the bad fall and avoiding the Champion – I now make her a 4/6 60% chance.
The market agrees with me that there are question marks about her, but have now imo gone too far. She’s currently available @ 4/5. Therefore a value bet, but I would not make her a main bet because of those doubts – just a saver.My main bet, Jade De Grugy I make a 16.5% fair 5/1 chance and is available @ 6.4/1 (13.5%).
Value Is EverythingGood points, although I’m not overly concerned with the not running in the Champion. I think she was always on standby incase any mishaps to State Man.
Townend rode State Man in the DRF despite that horse getting thumped in previous runs. State Man was always the number 1
Throw in Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead it makes perfect sense to run Lossiemouth in the Mares. Plus the distance is a positive. She got left behind at 2 miles at Kempton and was travelling fast when falling.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Good points yourself Nathan. Although I do think when the season began Millins thought Lossiemouth was his Champion Hurdle horse. State Man has been consistent, but he’s getting older and even his best form is nowhere near The Hill’s. Yes, Townend rode SM against L, but was he ever getting off a Champion Hurdler who is (from what I hear) Townend’s favourite horse… I wasn’t surprised with Townend’s choice that day. But with The Hill beating Lossie at Kempton and then BDA put up a magnificent performance in Ireland… Both proving better than she is at her very best… And then not just a fall but a bad fall last time out… Kempton was too much of a speed test. imo Lossie is probably equally effective at 2m as 2 1/2; but might need conditions placing the emphasis on stamina at 2m. Had the ground looked like being soft this week it might have been a different decision. All the above combined may well have changed Ricci’s (and Mullins’) mind. I can see why they made the decision to go for the easier race.
Value Is Everything“Supreme Novices Hurdle:
(3.0%) £38 @ 10/1 (Bet365) Romeo Coolio (min 9/1)
£15 @ 33/1 (Bet365) Royal Infantry (min 28/1)
Saver:
£36 @ 6/4 (Bet365) Kopek Des Bordes (min 11/8)
(3.4%) £45 @ 11.5 (betfair £52 available) Workahead (min 10)
top up, another:
£20 @ 8.6 (betfair £57 available) Romeo Coolio (min 7.6)
If you’re not on Romeo Coolio yet I suggest (5%) £66 @ 8.6 (min 7.6)
——————————————————–
more of the saver:
£64 @ 2 (betfair £4202 available) Kopek Des Bordes (min 2)Value Is Everything“Mares Hurdle:
(4.65%) £61 @ 7.4 (betfair £204 available) Jade De Grugy (min 7.0)
saver:
£76 @ 1.81 (betfair £1029 available) Lossiemouth (min 1.8)”
———————————————————–
saver:
£12 @ 14 (betfair £256 available) Kala Conti (min 13)Value Is Everything“Mares Hurdle:
(4.65%) £61 @ 7.4 (betfair £204 available) Jade De Grugy (min 7.0)
saver:
£76 @ 1.81 (betfair £1029 available) Lossiemouth (min 1.8)
saver:
£12 @ 14 (betfair £256 available) Kala Conti (min 13)”
——————————————————
A further:
£13 @ 1.91 (betfair £165 available) Lossiemouth (min 1.9)Value Is EverythingMARCH 11TH BETS:
Supreme Novices Hurdle:
(3.0%) £38 @ 10/1 (Bet365) Romeo Coolio (min 9/1) 3rd
£15 @ 33/1 (Bet365) Royal Infantry (min 28/1) DNR
£36 @ 6/4 (Bet365) Kopek Des Bordes (min 11/8) 1st
(3.4%) £45 @ 11.5 (betfair £52 available) Workahead (min 10)
£20 @ 8.6 (betfair £57 available) Romeo Coolio (min 7.6)
£64 @ 2 (betfair £4202 available) Kopek Des Bordes (min 2)
STAKES £218
RETURN £218.00+ £0.00
—————————————————————————–Arkle Trophy:
(3.8%) £43 @ 11/1 (Bet365) L’Eau Du Sud (min 9/1)
Reduced:
£30 @ 12/1 (Laddies) Only By Night (min 11/1) 2nd
£17 @ 6.4 (betfair £17 available) L’Eau Du Sud (min 6.0)
STAKES £90– £90.00
—————————————————————————–Ultima:
£40 @ 9.6 (betfair £59 available) Katate Dori (min 8)
£25 @ 14.5 (betfair £25 available) Whistle Stop Tour (min 13)
£25 @ 16.5 (betfair £41 available) Henry’s Friend (min 15)
£30 @ 16.5 (betfair £488 available) The Short Go (min 14)
£13 @ 11 (betfair £29 available) Crebilly (min 10.5)
£7 @ 20 (betfair £67 available) Sequested (min 20)
STAKES £140– £140.00
——————————————————————————
Mares Hurdle:
(4.65%) £61 @ 7.4 (betfair £204 available) Jade De Grugy (min 7.0) 2nd
£76 @ 1.81 (betfair £1029 available) Lossiemouth (min 1.8) 1st
£12 @ 14 (betfair £256 available) Kala Conti (min 13)
£13 @ 1.91 (betfair £165 available) Lossiemouth (min 1.9)
STAKES £162
RETURN £162.39+ £0.39
——————————————————————————
Champion Hurdle:
£20 @ 20 (betfair £35 available) Mystical Power (min 14/1)
£60 @ 4/1 (Bet365) Constitution Hill (min 7/2) Fell
LAY £25 @ 1.8 (betfair £115 available) Constitution Hill (max 1.9)
£22 @ 3.5 (betfair £22 available) Brighterdaysahead (min 3.2)
STAKES £102 – Lay £25 = £77– £77.00
——————————————————————————Day’s Deficit – £306.61
Betting Bank £12,881.41
Thread Profit + £2,881.41
======================Value Is EverythingChampion Chase ante-post:
(6.0%) £76 @ 9/2 (bet365) Gaelic Warrior (min 9/2)
(8.95%) £118 @ 2.5 (betfair £120 available @ 2.5, £13 available @ 2.52) Jonbon (min 2.46)
LAY £50 @ 5.9 (betfair £50 available) Gaelic Warrior (max 6)
LAY £23 @ 8.2 (betfair £23 available) Gaelic Warrior (max 8.6)
————————————————————–
Saver:
£15 @ 9.4 (betfair £20 available) Energumene (min 8)Value Is EverythingBrowns Advisory:
(2.7%) £34 @ 11/1 (Bet365) Gorgeous Tom (min 11/1)Value Is Everything“Browns Advisory:
(2.7%) £34 @ 11/1 (Bet365) Gorgeous Tom (min 11/1)”
—————————————————
(3.45%) £44 @ 8 (betfair £70 available) Dancing City (min 8)Value Is EverythingCHAMPION CHASE:
MARINE NATIONALE: I can see why people backed Marine Nationale for this after his second to Soleness. Latter seemed to get an easy lead and MN got closest. That a career best effort over fences too. So more improvement could well come at the meeting where he won the Supreme with Michael O’Sullivan up. Would be a fine tribute to the man, but maybe sentiment is the reason he’s second favourite. As Mike rightly says – he needs to improve a hell of a lot to beat an in form Jonbon… And even needs to progress a good bit to beat a few other rivals too… Thought to be proven on a sound surface, although has since improved on softer since his action suggests Good ground won’t inconvenience him. My opinion of his chance is 12.5% a fair 7/1.
SOLNESS: Has gone at a fast pace the last twice, but hasn’t been taken on. There are other possible front runners in this. Quilixios’s stable is in much better form now (so I’d expect him to race closer than he did in the Dublin Chase) whilst Sloness’s / O’Brien stable isn’t in the sparkling form it was either (not that it’s in bad form right now). Both Energumene and Found A Fifty can be ridden prominently or be held up… And Jonbon himself likes to be up there too. That said, Solness is the likeliest to lead and is obviously dangerous if getting away. Steadily progressive, but quite a bit more will be needed to bet a top form Jonbon – unless given that positional advantage. Improvement has come on going that’s probably a little slower than he faces here too, but has winning form at a lesser level on a sound surface which was at the time up with his soft ground form. So I don’t envisage any problem with going. 10% 9/1
FOUND A FIFTY: Wasn’t right when pulled up last time out. Probably best to forget that run. Isn’t far behind on the form of most of these. Even has a verdict over Solness. But although placed in last year’s Arkle, if he’s to make the necessary amount of improvement I think he’ll need to race right-handed. Has spurned a good handicap alternative to race here. 5.5% 18/1
CAPTAIN GUINNESS: Did me a favour last year, but the truth is the form shown was nowhere near your average Champion Chase winner. Hasn’t been near even that form since May. Although De Bromhead is in better form now, it has looked something more than stable form. Rachael Blackmore rides; did she have the pick? 1.25% 80/1
QUILIXIOS: Captain Guinness’s stable companion Quilixios usually races on the pace. Well beaten by Solness last time, but Henry De Bromhead was in desperate form at that time. So might make more of a fight for the lead here. Could return to form and get nearer, but was beaten 8 lengths by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek and doesn’t seem any better than that. Has festival winning form – won the 2021 Triumph, but imo doesn’t always find much off the bridle. Small fields suit him best but this is probably too competitive for him anyway. Rachael Blackmore seems to have chosen Captain Guinness. 1.25% 80/1
LIBERTY HUNTER: Would’ve had a far better chance in the Grand Annual. Normally dropped out the back, so it’s possible he could “pick up the pieces” if ALL the others go too quick. But that is the only scenario I can envisage him winning. May also be better on softer ground. Despite the sound pace last time out was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Master Chewy who was giving him 3 lbs. That form is some way below Grade 1. 1% 100/1
JONBON: I’ve already backed Jonbon. Forget the “Jonbon isn’t as good at Cheltenham” thing. As Jonny says, the times he’s been beaten at the festival have been when The Hill put up the best novice performance I have ever seen in the Supreme… And a second to the outstanding novice El Fabiolo in the Arkle. ie Jonbon put up (up to that point) career bests to be runner-up… And performances on merit better than most winners of those two races. The 2023 Schloer where he beat Edwardstowne 9 1/2 lengths also one of his very best performances. The only slight worry I have is if too many of his rivals go towards the front. He’s used to racing prominently so if unable to do so might not jump / run as well. Also, there is one horse with better form, just got to go back some way for it… 54.5% 5/6 Very much backable @ Evens.
…ENERGUMENE: I know he’s 11 years old, but is still capable of good ratings. Not many 11 year olds have tried to win the Champion and wins to runs 11 year olds don’t have a bad record. Moscow Flyer won as an 11 year old in one of the best Queen Mother Champion Chases, beating Well Chief and Azertyuiop. Energumene is lightly raced compared to most of his age too. Fewer starts than Jonbon. So there are some encouraging pointers. OK, he’s probably not quite as good as in his prime and will soon (maybe even now) go further on the downgrade. But Ascot was only his second run back from a long absence… And despite being run on ground verging on Good, that was imo the second best form shown by any of these. If he can do just a little better here could be a danger to the fav. His Spring form is immaculate – February to April – reading 1,1,1,1,1,1,1. Albeit none of those were on Good ground. Some people seem to believe he needs it soft or heavy – that’s daft. Some of his best performances have come on Good-Soft. If it is (truly) that surface will be fine. El Fabiolo (not fit enough) and Gaelic Warrior (needs softer ground to be effective at 2 miles) both haven’t made it here. So Energumene is the only Mullins representative and the trainer seems to be hitting good form again just as Cheltenham starts. Energumene’s current exchange odds are worth taking a chance. 14% 6/1 Available now at 8/1.
I’m already on Jonbon ante-post, so Energumene is only a saver for me.
If I hadn’t got on early I’d be doing it the other way around. Backing Energumene with a saver on the fav.Value Is EverythingA reminder of this ante-post bet:
“Turners Hurdle:
(8.6%) £100 @ 5/1 (Laddies) The New Lion (min 4/1)
Saver:
£40 @ 5/2 NRNB (Bet365) Final Demand (min 5/2)”
————————————————–I haven’t bothered working the race out again, so can’t advise what I’d do without those ante-post bets.
Value Is EverythingMares Novices Hurdle:
(6.4%) £82 @ 100/30 (WH) Sixandahalf (min 3/1)Value Is Everything“2025 GRAND NATIONAL
£20 @ 25/1 (PP) Minella Cocooner (min 16/1)
£17 @ 33/1 (B365) Inothewayurthinkin (min 20/1)
LAY £7 @ 80 (betfair £11 available) Inothewayurthinkin (max 90)
£40 @ 10/1 (B365) Inothewayurthinkin (min 9/1)
£30 @ 14/1 (bet365) Iroko (min 12/1)”
————————————-
£10 @ 40/1 (WH) Galvin (min 33/1)Value Is EverythingMARCH 12TH BETS:
Turners Hurdle:
(8.6%) £100 @ 5/1 (Laddies) The New Lion (min 4/1) 1st
£40 @ 5/2 NRNB (Bet365) Final Demand (min 5/2) 3rd
STAKES £140
RETURN £600.00+ £460.00
——————————————————Browns Advisory:
(2.7%) £34 @ 11/1 (Bet365) Gorgeous Tom (min 11/1)
(3.45%) £44 @ 8 (betfair £70 available) Dancing City (min 8)
STAKES £78– £78.00
——————————————————Champion Chase ante-post:
(6.0%) £76 @ 9/2 (bet365) Gaelic Warrior (min 9/2) DNR
(8.95%) £118 @ 2.5 (betfair £120 available @ 2.5, £13 available @ 2.52) Jonbon (min 2.46) Fell
LAY £50 @ 5.9 (betfair £50 available) Gaelic Warrior (max 6)
LAY £23 @ 8.2 (betfair £23 available) Gaelic Warrior (max 8.6)
£15 @ 9.4 (betfair £20 available) Energumene (min 8) PU
STAKES £209 – Lay £73 = £136– £136.00
——————————————————Day’s Profit + £246.00
Betting Bank £13,127.41
Thread Profit + £3,127.41
=====================Value Is Everything“Ryanair:
£30 @ 12/1 (Bet365) Il Est Francais (min 10/1)
£30 @ 12/1 (Bet365) Spillanes Tower (min 10/1)
LAY £15 @ 8 (betfair £59 available) Spillanes Tower (max 10)
LAY £10 @ 12 (betfair £10 available) Il Est Francais (max 12.5)
LAY £5 @ 8 (betfair £5 available) Spillanes Tower (max 10)
LAY £10 @ 12.5 (betfair £10 available) Il Est Francais (max 12.5)
LAY £8 @ 8 (betfair £8 available) Spillanes Tower (max 10)
(5.5%) £72 @ 12/1 (Skybet All In Run Or Not) Protektorat (min 17/2)
LAY £10 @ 14 (betfair £10 available) Il Est Francais (max 14.5)
LAY £31 @ 7.4 (betfair £31 available) Protektorat (max 7.6)
———————————————————–
saver:
£30 @ 2.56 (betfair £1413 available) Fact To File (min 2.5)Value Is Everything
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