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sorry for a dumb question as I am new to the forum but are these better being bet bog if you can get that or is Betfair more profitable at sp on the bigger priced horses
Not sure about whether Elmalka would have won the Fred Darling as things were, FF. But had she had the same number of races / experience of the other two she’d probably have won. Did go through my mind about the draw. I have the two likeliest pace setters as Star Music in 7 and Star Style in 10. Then there’s the Karl Burke stable companions who should be prominent in 5 and 6. So there’s not much pace around Elmalka in 16. If the once raced Star Style is slower away than the other prominent racers it might be a problem. Don’t really want a horse of Elmalka’s inexperience on the outer either. Hopefully she can be held up or even dropped out the back. Doesn’t help with the one immediately to her right being Porta Fortuna who is likely to be held up too. However, Star Style just might go to the rail and the field splits. In which case Elmalka being on that rail is sometimes the place to be. Especially after two days of racing up the centre.
Value Is EverythingPunters could take a best odds guaranteed price if they wish and if they can get it, Whiteowl. Up to them. But being someone who is deliberately looking for horses priced up bigger than they should be… The vast majority of my bets shorten after I back them anyway. For that reason I rarely use betfair SP either.
I personally pretty much always use betfair for my own bets anyway. Some bookies have closed my account and some don’t allow me enough on. But this is an advisory thread, so will quote a bookmakers price even if I have to use betfair. Just means I don’t need to wait for liquidity on the exchange to improve before putting the bet up. Because I never quote a betfair price if at least the amount I am staking is available at that price.
Hope that answers your question.
…And welcome to the forum Whiteowl.
Value Is EverythingWith most preferring softer ground than they’ll probably get tomorrow, hopefully the Dahlia won’t be ruined by non-runners.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the welcome and the reply
I am going to follow but with reduced stakes to yourself but this a very good thread and I also like that you put your reasoning behind your bets I wish I could read a race like you it really is excellent workThe dahlia looks a head scratcher
Iv filed it in the I shouldn’t be betting in this group race folder
A folder I am contemplating filling every 5f and 6f race with tbh. Last season and this so far the formbook has been worthless in the races at those distances as there are no genuine group 1 horses like battaash, blue point, harry angel etc about
Don’t think any of them are reliable enough to put my money on
They could all win they could all come last
I will get winners in races like the dahlia but over the course of a season I’d need to get very lucky to turn a profit in them.
Can definitely see where you’re coming from with the Dahlia, FF. Is tricky in many ways, but the two things that for me made it worth betting are: Trainer form and Ground. The two I’ve backed both go well on good or even good-firm. Race times indicate it is verging on good-firm. Want to be against the fav who seems to need good-soft or softer to produce her best. Same with Astral Beau. Heartache Tonight may want very soft. Ditto Novus. Stay Alert goes well on a sound surface but this is unlikely to be a sufficient test of stamina and often needs her first run back. Caernarfon might need a true test but was fast enough last year to be 4th in the Guineas (admittedly on soft). Proving she’s effective first time up, at Newmarket and this time of year. Her Oaks 3rd was on a sounder surface. Is from a stable in outstanding form. Didn’t think I’d say that about a Channon yard. Silver Lady has the penalty, but is progressive, goes well on a sound surface and has a lot more speed than many of these. Unless Heartache Tonight mixes it with Astral Beau I can’t see it being a strongly run race… And it wouldn’t surprise me if HT is a non-runner.
Value Is EverythingThanks again Whiteowl.
Keeping stakes low for a beginner is a good decision. Even though I am confident this thread will show an overall profit… I know from the past I can hit a losing run at any time that could lose me the whole profit. Even if looking at this week, a poor Ascot, then Friday would’ve been a losing day but for a 100/1 winner and Saturday’s good profit only due to Noble Speech – another big price. This week could easily have been a disaster. Followers of the thread should take possible losing runs into account when putting their bets on and am glad you are wise enough to do that Whiteowl.
Value Is Everything“14:25 Dahlia Stakes Newmarket
(8.6%) £101 @ 4/1 (B365) Silver Lady (min 100/30)
(4.9%) £58 @ 9/2 (B365) Caernarfon (min 4/1)”
———————————————
Another:
£10 @ 6.2 (betfair £135 available) Caernarfon (min 5.0)Value Is Everything1000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.9%) £33 @ 20/1 (WH) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15/1)
(2.6%) £30 @ 33/1 (B365) Regal Jubilee (min 25/1)
LAY £18 @ 34.0 (betfair £18 available) Regal Jubilee (max 38)
Another:
(3.2%) £5 @ 19.0 (betfair £27 available) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15) £37 in all.
(7.5%) £83 @ 4.9 (betfair £199 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)”
(1.65%) £19 @ 30 (betfair £42 available) Elmalka (min 29)
———————————————————
saver:
£16 @ 11 (betfair £514 available) See The Fire (min 11)Value Is Everything“14:25 Dahlia Stakes Newmarket
(8.6%) £101 @ 4/1 (B365) Silver Lady (min 100/30)
(4.9%) £58 @ 9/2 (B365) Caernarfon (min 4/1)
Another:
£10 @ 6.2 (betfair £135 available) Caernarfon (min 5.0)”
——————————————————-
partial saver:
£10 @ 11 (betfair £189 available) Astral Beau (min 10)Value Is Everything^ The tailwind appears to be back, so have backed the probable front runner.
EDIT: Oops, looking at the July Course.
Value Is EverythingShould’ve cashed out Silver Lady once she sweated up badly. Caernarfon was travelling well for a while and found nowt. Too firm for Astral Beau. The favourite didn’t seem to like the ground in the closing stages either, hanging badly. Oisin challenging so early set it up for the stayer / hold up horse. Stay Alert was obviously fitter than I expected. The Timeform top rated by 5 lbs wins.
Value Is Everything14:25 Dahlia Stakes Newmarket
(8.6%) £101 @ 4/1 (B365) Silver Lady (min 100/30)
(4.9%) £58 @ 9/2 (B365) Caernarfon (min 4/1) 3rd
£10 @ 6.2 (betfair £135 available) Caernarfon (min 5.0)
£10 @ 11 (betfair £189 available) Astral Beau (min 10)
STAKES £179-£179.00
——————————————————-1000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.9%) £33 @ 20/1 (WH) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15/1)
(2.6%) £30 @ 33/1 (B365) Regal Jubilee (min 25/1)
LAY £18 @ 34.0 (betfair £18 available) Regal Jubilee (max 38)
(3.2%) £5 @ 19.0 (betfair £27 available) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15) £38 in all.
(7.5%) £83 @ 4.9 (betfair £199 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)”
(1.65%) £19 @ 30 (betfair £42 available) Elmalka (min 29) 1st
£16 @ 11 (betfair £514 available) See The Fire (min 11)
STAKES £186
LAY + £18
RETURN £18.00 + £570.00 = £588.00+£402.00
——————————————————-Day’s Profit +£223.00
Betting Bank £12,010.69
Thread Profit +£2010.69
Value Is Everything15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)”
——————————————————————–
Saver:
£25 @ 2.88 (betfair £88 available) Grosvenor Square (min 2.8)Value Is EverythingCame here to suggest that cadogan place is the overpriced horse running today at Chester
Not surprised to see you’ve already come to that conclusion
He beat hidden law fair and square at Southwell, kicking away from him before running green in front and just holding on
That burst of acceleration should be useful around Chester with its short straight
Much bigger horse than hidden law no reason to think he won’t take a big step forward and beat him again
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