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Yes, FF. Although I do think Hidden Law improved at Newbury and showed he’d learnt from Southwell, displaying a fine burst of speed himself. I have Hidden Law quite a bit ahead of Cadogan Place here. Just nowhere near what the betting suggests. You’re right about his size, HL is tiny!
Cadogan does have the tongue tie, which although is a slight worry, he also had it on debut. So we know it has worked in the past. Inexperience is also a concern – it being around Chester… And this his first run on turf. So there are negatives with him. I just feel his ability shown at Southwell – and the excellent Balding form – indicates he should be shorter. Am surprised he hasn’t yet been well backed this morning. I was going to go in again, but think I’ll wait.
tbh When working the race out I thought I was going to oppose Grosvenor Square. Again, him being a first time out AOB runner. So I see why the market has gone against him… and for Agenda who has had a run… But it has surely gone too far now? GS has by far the best form in the race. EDIT: Have now laid a bit of 5 Agenda, although I won’t be putting that bet up on here.
Golden West showed promise last season before disappointing in a Group 3 in France last season. The first time cheek pieces are interesting. Too short now though. .I had 20p matched @ 50 in the very early market. LOL
Pappano shouldn’t really be good enough coming off a reasonably hard fought Wolves win. But this is a Gosden horse and he seldom over-tries his horses.
Value Is Everything15:05 Chester Dee Stakes (tomorrow)
(7.7%) £92 @ 9/4 (WH) God’s Window (min 85/40)Value Is Everything“15:05 Chester Dee Stakes (tomorrow)
(7.7%) £92 @ 9/4 (WH) God’s Window (min 85/40)”
———————————————–
Saver:
£30 @ 4.5 (betfair £91 available) Brackens Laugh (min 4.4)Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)
Saver:
£25 @ 2.88 (betfair £88 available) Grosvenor Square (min 2.8)”
————————————————————–
Another
£10 @ 8/1 (B365) Cadogan Place (min 7/1)Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)
Saver:
£25 @ 2.88 (betfair £88 available) Grosvenor Square (min 2.8)”
Another
£10 @ 8/1 (B365) Cadogan Place (min 7/1)
—————————————–
Top 2 Finish:
£28 @ 3.75 (betfair £28 avialable) Cadogan Place (min 3.0)Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)
Saver:
£25 @ 2.88 (betfair £88 available) Grosvenor Square (min 2.8)”
Another
£10 @ 8/1 (B365) Cadogan Place (min 7/1)
Top 2 Finish:
£28 @ 3.75 (betfair £28 avialable) Cadogan Place (min 3.0)”
———————————————————-
to win another:
£10 @ 2/1 (B365) Grosvenor Square (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingMAY 8TH BETS:
15:40 Chester Chester Vase:
(reduced) £21 @ 9.2 (betfair £21 available) Cadogan Place (min 8.0)
£25 @ 2.88 (betfair £88 available) Grosvenor Square (min 2.8)
£10 @ 8/1 (B365) Cadogan Place (min 7/1)
£28 @ 3.75 (betfair £28 avialable) Cadogan Place (min 3.0) Top 2 Finish.
£10 @ 2/1 (B365) Grosvenor Square (min 15/8)
STAKES £94-£94.00
————————————————————————Day’s Deficit -£94.00
Betting Bank £11,916.69
Thread Profit +£1,916.69
Value Is Everything15:40 Chester Ormonde
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Deauville Legend (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingI agree, Chester is tricky Jimmy.
Easier though if keeping almost exclusively to middle distances.Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Ormonde
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Deauville Legend (min 4/1)”
—————————————————
(3.5%) £42 @ 8.4 (betfair £45 available) Alsakib (min 8)Value Is EverythingWhilst applauding anyone who makes a profit, whatever the method, just looking at the 1,000 Guineas as an example you found the 28/1 winner, but your profit on the race is less than 3/1. When you get that sort of result do you not feel the slightest disappointment that you didn’t have the confidence just to throw a single dart?
No Stilvi, I don’t look at it that way at all.
If I had “a single dart” at the 1000 Guineas I probably would not have backed the winner in the first place… For me – a winner is a winner, whatever the price.If I think the market underestimates a horse I’ll back it whatever the price and however many horses I’ve already backed. Of course it’s nice thinking I’ve had an individual bet on a “28/1 winner”, but am in no illusions about the real price I took for the whole race.
The object of the exercise is to get the greatest combined value. Say I identify two horses in the same race that I believe both have 25% chances of winning and both are available @ 4/1 (20%). Should I back just the one horse for a (25 – 20 =) 5% better chance of winning than my assessment of its chance? And if so which one should I back?
Or should I back both? Getting what I believe is a (25 + 25 =) 50% chance of winning @ (20 + 20 =) 40%. Which is now 10% better than my assessment of their combined chance (50 – 40 = 10). Effectively the same bet as backing a 6/4 (40%) horse that I believe has a 50% Evens chance of winning.In my workings out I seldom come across one individual horse priced up 10% better than in my 100% book. But I often find two with a combined 10% better chance, or three with a combined 13% better etc etc.
One thing I will say is that it does not really pay to back my “Savers” (usually what I consider the lesser value, ie not as much value as my “main” bets). But I’ve found over the years my Savers cut down on the losing runs and therefore keep my confidence up, which in turn keeps me looking at races in the same profitable way.
I did not back Elmalka because I thought it had a good chance of winning. I backed it only because I thought it had a 4.5% chance of winning. That bears repeating, a 4.5% chance of winning. Say every time I make multiple horses value but only back the one at the biggest price. I would need to allow for going through losing runs of 100 races or even more… And how would I feel then every time – which would be regularly – where a winner I made excellent value went unbacked? It would destroy me as well as destroying my confidence in the way I bet.
Value Is Everything“15:40 Chester Ormonde
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Deauville Legend (min 4/1)
(3.5%) £42 @ 8.4 (betfair £45 available) Alsakib (min 8)”
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(2.85%) £20 @ 15 (betfair £20 available) Enemy (min 14)Value Is Everything“15:05 Chester Dee Stakes (tomorrow)
(7.7%) £92 @ 9/4 (WH) God’s Window (min 85/40)”
Saver:
£30 @ 4.5 (betfair £91 available) Brackens Laugh (min 4.4)”
———————————————————–
Saver:
£33 @ 5.1 (betfair £129 available) Capulet (min 3.6)Value Is Everything
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