- This topic has 2,423 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Wincanton abandoned.
1:40 Newcastle
55 points @ 4/1 (PP) Knockgraffon King* (min 7/2)
Saver:
14 points @ 4/1 (SJ) Rolecarr (min 4/1)Value Is Everything2:15 Newcastle
24 points @ 12/1 (B365) Badea* (min 11/1)Two more to come in this race.
Value Is Everything2:15 Newcastle
24 points @ 12/1 (B365) Badea* (min 11/1)Saver:
17 points @ 4/1 (VC) Lysino (min 7/2)One more main bet to come.
Value Is Everything2:15 Newcastle
24 points @ 12/1 (B365) Badea* (min 11/1)Saver:
17 points @ 4/1 (VC) Lysino (min 7/2)44 points @ 4/1 (generally) Nautical Twighlight* (min 7/2)
You’ll probably get 9/2 if waiting, or take a bit better than 4’s on the machine.
Value Is EverythingWell done ginge!… you seem to be bang in form long may it continue!
Thanks Baynet, Christmas and New Year have (so far) been very good to me, getting back all the December losing run plus a bit more!
Now up to date with my p/l for this thread:
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +407.1 points
Total Thread Profit +6429.95 points
…And that’s not including New Years Day (3 from 3) when unable to get on here to put bets up.
Value Is EverythingAway from this thread: I’d expected my season’s
actual
results to be a touch better considering it’s now January. However, although getting off to a good enough start up to and including the Paddy Power; had an awful time (Henessey day about the only exception) from mid-November to 28th December. Losing a four figure sum to be at one point over 7.5% down. Easy to get disheartened after 40/1 Cue Card, but felt wasn’t doing much (if anything) wrong. Challow Hurdle Day a massive boost and it’s carried on from there. Just hope it continues. My actual profit/loss for this season now stands at +14.8%.
So got to be pleased at my recovery.
Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Mendip Express* (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingWell done ginge!… you seem to be bang in form long may it continue!
Thanks Baynet, Christmas and New Year have (so far) been very good to me, getting back all the December losing run plus a bit more!
Now up to date with my p/l for this thread:
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +407.1 points
Total Thread Profit +6429.95 points
This is what the thread went like from the top of page 112 (Nov 6th) when +302.28 points up on the season…
09/11/13 -152.5
15/11/13 +102
16/11/13 +239
17/11/13 -229
23/11/13 -112.5
24/11/13 +40
30/11/13 +258.5
01/12/13 -151
06/12/13 -85
07/12/13 -197
12/12/13 +1
13/12/13 -159
14/12/13 -76.68
18/12/13 -60
20/12/13 -25
26/12/13 -30
28/12/13 +621
04/01/14 +121Season profit prior to 9/11/13 = +302.28
09/11/13 to 04/01/14 = +104.82
Profit for this season = +407.10Value Is EverythingWell done ginge!… you seem to be bang in form long may it continue!
Thanks Baynet, Christmas and New Year have (so far) been very good to me, getting back all the December losing run plus a bit more!
Now up to date with my p/l for this thread:
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +407.1 points
Total Thread Profit +6429.95 points
This is what the thread went like from the top of page 112 (Nov 6th) when +302.28 points up on the season…
09/11/13 -152.5
15/11/13 +102
16/11/13 +239
17/11/13 -229
23/11/13 -112.5
24/11/13 +40
30/11/13 +258.5
01/12/13 -151
06/12/13 -85
07/12/13 -197
12/12/13 +1
13/12/13 -159
14/12/13 -76.68
18/12/13 -60
20/12/13 -25
26/12/13 -30
28/12/13 +621
04/01/14 +121Season profit prior to 9/11/13 = +302.28
09/11/13 to 04/01/14 = +104.82
Profit for this season = +407.10Well done Ginge.
No wonder there’s no reasoning with youWould you say your approach is very much of the Dave Nevison type or if there is a strong difference, what might that be?
SHL
Well done Ginge.
No wonder there’s no reasoning with youWould you say your approach is very much of the Dave Nevison type or if there is a strong difference, what might that be?
Thanks SHL,
Don’t do reasoning for many reasons. Why I back a particular horse is as much (if not more) about the other runners in a race. So would need to write up the whole race, not just one or two (or six) individuals backed. Also, sometimes am tipping an outsider which has many more negatives than positives anyway. So reading a write up anyone would think I am telling TRFers NOT to back it!
ie As you are no doubt aware, the only real reason for tipping anything (for me) is price/value. My write ups mean little if they are not accompanied by a "100% book"… And when giving my idea of "true odds" I got so much abuse it’s not worth doing…Time consuming too. Spend about 3 hours on a Saturday card, including studying form, making notes, 100% books where needed (sometimes is, sometimes isn’t) and getting bets on. So if stopping to write up a race on here, then it adds to time and delays me working out the next race; sometimes missing a price/bet. Although if anyone has any questions about a bet/race enjoy answering in my own time, may be after all bets are on.
I’ve told this story before, but worth mentioning again here. Many years ago (before internet) whilst viewing horses in the parade ring at Wincanton, I got in to conversation with a stranger comparing how we bet. Explaining, I looked at the Timeform Race Card and backed a horse at the top end of ratings I believed was “value”. Usually the favourite or second favourite. Having fooled myself into thinking I was a pretty good judge, did not take long to realise had a lot to learn. Not easy listening, understanding the way I’d done things for years was just plain wrong. Value was no value at all, at least the way I was doing it; this bearded figure explained what it truly meant and that I should consider backing at any price when appropriate to do so. Percentages and all that!
If only my maths teacher had explained the significance of this simple arithmetic. Then again, perhaps understanding it properly from the beginning – probably have turned me against betting and horse racing altogether. A sport and now occupation I love. Anyway, that 15 minutes talking to a Wincanton stranger (several years later) identified from an old photo to be professional gambler Alan Potts – changed my life.
There are other ways of making a profit, but every professional/winning punter I know has a good understanding of “value”. So we’re all similar in that regard.
Alan usually keeps to one wager in a race, which suits him well. Comparitively small number of bets, backing the very best value; where as I can use the "scattergun approach". You’re right SHL, in a similar way to how I understand Dave Nevison works/worked. Although after reading two of his books, still don’t quite know "how" he bets.
Gives little away, but did mention Eddie Freemantle showed him how to profit.Suspect the main differences in the way Dave does things is types of race we bet in. I like higher grades and probably take more notice of "in form trainers". That and my bets are much smaller.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginge,
The method you and Nevison for that matter employs seems to be the best in terms of some of consistency and control. It beats waiting around half a year for a 33/1 shot to cover all your previous sins.The down side,(probably the downside to any serious gambling) is the serious work rate and the constant strain. You might avoid this by concentrating on better races but I got the impression from Nevison interviews that he fell out of love with it and wouldnt miss it as an occupation. Im not sure he even makes his money from betting any more?
SHL
Thanks Ginge,
The method you and Nevison for that matter employs seems to be the best in terms of some of consistency and control. It beats waiting around half a year for a 33/1 shot to cover all your previous sins.The down side,(probably the downside to any serious gambling) is the serious work rate and the constant strain. You might avoid this by concentrating on better races but I got the impression from Nevison interviews that he fell out of love with it and wouldnt miss it as an occupation. Im not sure he even makes his money from betting any more?
You’re right SHL. Problem imo comes with losing runs. When not making money in a long time you begin to question yourself. Working races out is very enjoyable when winners keep flowing, if not it can become a bit of a chore, especially as winners are wages… And then you may not work races out in the right way, coming to the wrong conclusion on who’s "value". I’d rather cut back when hitting that downward spiral of losers until its direction changes. Had every intention of increasing the number of races I bet in from the Henessey onwards. But if you look at my reord (figures are totals for each individual day) the opposite happened. Had so many bad days difficult to maintain enthusiasm.
Punters who wish they could gamble/invest professionally should think of what it is like to hit the inevitable losing streak with no other money coming in. Got to be of a certain disposition to retain a level outlook. Nevison has children to support and if losing run/s extended – I can totally see why he fell out of love with it as an occupation. Especially as (I seem to recall) a lot of his bets revolved around the all-weather. Upper echelons of racing always has an interest in who and how horses win, which as you say SHL – helps when not betting successfully. With rubbish racing there is only betting (at least for most of us). Hopefully I can keep the strains away, but am under no illusions on my chosen occupation’s difficulties.
Value Is Everything3:15 Kempton
62 points @ 4/1 (B365) Relax* (min 100/30)28 points @ 6/1 (VC) Good Order* (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.