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Just looked at the Racing Post site and they give the ground as Good (Good to Soft) so Wincanton have either been very lucky or are being very optimistic.
Good-soft (good in places) now Stilvi, though there’s more rain coming. Only showers forecast from now onwards. Might be soft or close to it by off time.
Value Is EverythingAre you going to Wincanton on Saturday, Ginge?
Don’t quite know yet Nathan, leaving it until I know who’s running.
Got ready to go and changed my mind at the last minute. Wasn’t sure how much rain was going to hit Wincanton Nathan, easier to react to circumstances at home. Looks a good card though!
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase
64 points @ 11/4 (B365) Silviniaco Conti (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase
64 points @ 11/4 (B365) Silviniaco Conti (min 5/2)7 points @ 10/1 (PP) Cue Card (min 8/1)
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Betfair Chase
64 points @ 11/4 (B365) Silviniaco Conti (min 5/2)Love this bet Ginge think I may lay low on the gambling front for the next couple of weeks and just go hard on Sil Conti, thinking about doing e/w incase Bob’s Worth turns up in his best form. I see it being incredibly likely that Sil Conti (if running near to his best) will finish in the top 3 at worst.
Are you not worrried about Bob’s Worth at all?
And did you see Ptit Zig won in France the other day
Am excited about Taquin De Sueil racing on Friday at Cheltenham too in a Novice Chase, could be a legit top chaser.
Betfair Chase
64 points @ 11/4 (B365) Silviniaco Conti (min 5/2)Love this bet Ginge think I may lay low on the gambling front for the next couple of weeks and just go hard on Sil Conti, thinking about doing e/w incase Bob’s Worth turns up in his best form. I see it being incredibly likely that Sil Conti (if running near to his best) will finish in the top 3 at worst.
Are you not worrried about Bob’s Worth at all?
And did you see Ptit Zig won in France the other day
Am excited about Taquin De Sueil racing on Friday at Cheltenham too in a Novice Chase, could be a legit top chaser.
As you know Ben, I go by purely price, betting on the "race" rather than "horse". I am certainly "worried about Bobs Worth. However, although he has the best form, that is at 3m2f. And he needed all of that trip on soft ground at Cheltenham. Even pushed along from some way out that day. Unless a strong pace throughout on very testing going (which is a possibility) suspect he’ll be outspeeded by Silvi. At this stage I’d have the Nicholls horse favourite in my book.
Cue Card had a lot on trying to give a lot of weight to Somersby. Not fully convinced he’ll stay, but at the price worth a saver.
They don’t seem to know where Dynaste will go, Betfair or Paddy Power. He seems to be best in the early season each year, but has quite a bit to find in one go if he’s to beat top class rivals. Also missed a scheduled reappearance.
Selection’s stable companion isn’t out of it. Tidal Bay’s temperament seems better these days, not sure he’ll cope with the quicker turn around from Wetherby this year.
Don’t know if any of the rest will turn up/be good enough.Ordinarily wouldn’t put you off backing each way at "shortish" odds Ben, but not ante-post (if that’s what you’re thinking). As you say, can’t see him out of the first three. But there’s always a possibility of injury/change of plan. So a chance of losing twice your stake. If you particularly want to bet each way Ben, wait until the final decs are known or day of race. Though suspect by that time price won’t be worth it. There’s always an option of backing win only ante-post and putting a saver on to place @ betfair on the day.
Didn’t see, but heard about Ptit Zig Ben, was he impressive? Hope you were on Ben! Those good French races are more difficult to win with than many give them credit for. He’s a promising horse…
Likewise Taquin, impressed me in the Challow Hurdle and encouraging chasing debut at Ffos Las. Though whether he’ll always need plenty of juice in the ground, jury’s out on that one. Am I right in thinking he shows plenty of knee action Ben?
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
I agree with you on the speed factor and the fact that Sil Conti won this race last year in great fashion only adds to the confidence, I’d have them down as both having around the same chance of victory so the 5/2 available for Conti is good value.
Think I’ll leave Cue Card alone now, he’s burnt my fingers in both victory and defeat, he’ll more than likely win races this season but I couldn’t tell you which ones! Dynaste is another one that#s maybe best worth leaving alone for the time being, he has shown real class in some performances and been incredibly disappointing in others, I assume connections don’t quite know how good he is due to his inconsistency.
I think you’re right about not backing e/w antepost, especially at 5/2 and like you said by the time the race goes off he’ll be more like 2/1 (or a tad shorter) so a win-only bet by the looks of things.
I made an account which gave me access to a few french races online but have completely forgotten my username and password so haven’t managed to watch Ptit Zig’s race, will probably dig that info out before he next races though so will let you know if I do see it.
Taquin does indeed show a bit of knee action and a lot of his best performances have been on soft/heavy ground which could be a big hindrance tomorrow as there doesn’t seem to be loads of rain about, will wait until the odds come out tonight to decide whether I’m backing him or not. Anything you fancy for the weekend? It seems a tricky one at Cheltenham over the next few days and obviously a lot of eyes will be drawn towards West Wizard on Sunday!
1:35 Cheltenham
26 points @ 8/1 (L) Anay Turge* (min 15/2)You might like to wait for tomorrow morning, be bigger than 8’s for a time, suspect AT is the Pricewise tip.
36 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Eastlake* (min 11/2)(£134 available)
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
1:35 Cheltenham
26 points @ 8/1 (L) Anay Turge* (min 15/2)You might like to wait for tomorrow morning, be bigger than 8’s for a time, suspect AT is the Pricewise tip.
36 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Eastlake* (min 11/2)(£134 available)
This is the only race I really like tomorrow, after spending the last couple of hours looking for an outsier with big odds to back I came to the conclusion that 6/1 (or so) about Eastlake is generous given his form in his last 6 races and he seemd to have improved over the summer in his win at Aintree and think he’ll be able to come on enough for that run to defy the 5lb rise. Don’t think the ground will be too much of an issue either.
1:35 Cheltenham
26 points @ 8/1 (L) Anay Turge* (min 15/2)36 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Eastlake* (min 11/2)(£134 available)
saver:
7 points @ 11/1 (VC) Parsnip Pete (min 11/1)Value Is Everything1:35 Cheltenham
26 points @ 8/1 (L) Anay Turge* (min 15/2)36 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Eastlake* (min 11/2)(£134 available)
saver:
7 points @ 11/1 (VC) Parsnip Pete (min 11/1)12 points @ 6/1 (B365) Renard (min 6/1)
Value Is EverythingThis is the only race I really like tomorrow, after spending the last couple of hours looking for an outsier with big odds to back I came to the conclusion that 6/1 (or so) about Eastlake is generous given his form in his last 6 races and he seemd to have improved over the summer in his win at Aintree and think he’ll be able to come on enough for that run to defy the 5lb rise. Don’t think the ground will be too much of an issue either.
Totally agree with you Ben.
Being easy to back is a bit off putting with a McMannus horse, but they’re often well supported on course. If I was betting on the race from scratch right now – think I’d be considering an each way bet on Eastlake @ 8/1.Value Is Everything2:05 Cheltenham
28 points @ 7/1 (B365) The Romford Pele* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
I like the Parsnip Pete bet too especially with his trainer saying it’s been his aim for some time.
I’m thinking of doing a bet on Eastlake to place as I’d imagine it’d be at around the 6/4 mark on betfair which would be fair.
With regards to Taquin, I was hoping he’d be something like a 5/1 shout but with the number of withdrawls it’s not to be, won’t be touching the race I don’t think!
And good shout with Anay Turge being the pricewise tip
2:05 Cheltenham
28 points @ 7/1 (B365) The Romford Pele* (min 13/2)Saver in betfair’s place market to come in first 2 in 4 horse race:
23 points @ 1.28/1 (betfair) The Romford Pele (min 1.3/1)(£45 available)Value Is Everything
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