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6:40 Punchestown
20 points each way @ 9/1 (PP) Bailey Green* (min 7/1)Savers:
5 points @ 14/1 (VC) Oscars Well (min 12/1)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)25 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/2)(£737 available)
Reve is probably Pricewise tomorrow, so might be best to wait.
May come back with a saver.
What makes you oppose Solwhit Ginge? I didn’t want to back him at Aintree but after that victory I can’t see past him in this race! Is it because you think he may be tired after his recent runs? Or are the others just too highly priced?
6:40 Punchestown
20 points each way @ 9/1 (PP) Bailey Green* (min 7/1)Savers:
5 points @ 14/1 (VC) Oscars Well (min 12/1)9 points @ 11/2 (VC) Alderwood (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)25 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/2)(£737 available)
Reve is probably Pricewise tomorrow, so might be best to wait.
May come back with a saver.
Here is the saver:
30 points @ 6/4 (VC) Solwhit (min 6/4)Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)25 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/2)(£737 available)
Reve is probably Pricewise tomorrow, so might be best to wait.
May come back with a saver.
What makes you oppose Solwhit Ginge? I didn’t want to back him at Aintree but after that victory I can’t see past him in this race! Is it because you think he may be tired after his recent runs? Or are the others just too highly priced?
Now had a saver Ben. Was hanging back because I thought Quevega might be a public horse and get a better price on Solwhit. I expect you know I’ve backed him for the World Hurdle. However, he does face an exceptional mare, having his third run in fairly quick succession and on different ground. Although proven on heavy at shorter trips it may place a bigger emphasis on stamina than faced so far if they go a good pace. There is (imo) better value elsewhere.
Thought Reve De Sivola got a poor ride at Cheltenham, he’s better than that if temperament holds and jumping allows. At best he’s not as far behind the big two as betting suggests. Nick Williams is in far better form than he was at that time too.
Holywell was second to Solwhit at Aintree, it’s true has a lot to make up but improving rapidly. If progress is maintained (admittedly quite a big IF) has a squeak at a big price and again Jonjo’s in good form.My prices to beat are:
Solwhit 41.25% 11/8 (near enough), Quevega 32% 85/40, Reve De Sivola 15% 11/2, Hollywell 7.7% 12/1, Zaidpour 2% 50/1, Fivefourthree 50/1, Whatuthink 0.05% 2000/1
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
That’s fair enough and a good point about Solwhit never having raced on heavy over 3miles which will test his stamina to the max after a busy couple of months. I too thought Quevega would get backed quite heavily today but it seems the Channel 4 racing team overestimate the mares popularity (can’t remember how many times at Cheltenham they said she was loved by the public).
I agree with what you said about Townend as well, it was as though he was trying to over-compensate the ride he gave BB in the RSA where (in my opinion) he hit the front slightly too early and would have been better off chasing down the leaders after the last. On Tuesday he was just way too far off the others and left it too late to swallow them up.
I’m tempted to do a Solwhit/Upsie double which is around 7/2 with a cheeky saver on Reve and then put rest of the pennies away for Sandown this weekend.
On best form there is not much between Solwhit and Quevega Ben, I’d have the former slightly ahead. Quevega did have trouble in running last time, but did not need to be anywhere near her best to beat a poor Group 1 field. Yes, she’s probably still capable of top form, but only "probably". That doubt (imo) needs to be taken in to account with prices.
Value Is Everything6:40 Punchestown
20 points each way @ 9/1 (PP) Bailey Green* (min 7/1)Savers:
5 points @ 14/1 (VC) Oscars Well (min 12/1)9 points @ 11/2 (VC) Alderwood (min 11/2)
I backed both Benneficient and Realt Mor at big prices last time out, but have to be against them today with so much pace. Latter is not the best of jumpers (so far) and being out on his own may be important to him. Unlikely to get his own way today. Benneficient is an excellent leper so it would not be as much of a problem, but he did really wing his fences out in front at Cheltenham and the course favours good jumpers more than any other. With good jumpers the usual thing is to race prominently, especially when doing well in that situation before. However, with Realt Mor, Special Tiara, Dazzling Suzie and to a certain extent Avrika and Buckers also usually prominent runners – it could end up favouring hold up horses but of course running plans could change.
Do wish I’d split stakes with three main bets and not done Bailey Green each way though.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
After deliberating long and hard I’ve decided to give Solwhit and the whole race a miss, I figure even though I like it I don’t have enough confidence in it to back it at the price. Finish work at 6 so may well hit up the 19.15 at Punchestown if I’m bored enough!
5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)25 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/2)(£737 available)
Reve is probably Pricewise tomorrow, so might be best to wait.
May come back with a saver.
Here is the saver:
30 points @ 6/4 (VC) Solwhit (min 6/4)Have now put a partial saver on Quevega @ 5/2, but won’t count it towards the p/l as I believe it’s a limited offer.
Value Is EverythingAfter deliberating long and hard I’ve decided to give Solwhit and the whole race a miss, I figure even though I like it I don’t have enough confidence in it to back it at the price. Finish work at 6 so may well hit up the 19.15 at Punchestown
if I’m bored enough!
You’ll never make a serious gambler with that sort of attitude Ben.
What the hell are you doing working for a living!
Seriously though, never bet just because you have the opportunity. Although true, if not sure Solwhit is value then I applaud you not betting.
Value Is EverythingHave now put a partial saver on Quevega @ 5/2, but won’t count it towards the p/l as I believe it’s a limited offer.
Where was the 5/2 Ginger?
Have now put a partial saver on Quevega @ 5/2, but won’t count it towards the p/l as I believe it’s a limited offer.
Where was the 5/2 Ginger?
Corals THM, it was their Punchestown special offer of the day. The Corals lady on ATR said it was only for internet customers, but I noticed yesterday’s offer of 5/2 Sir Des on Oddschecker and had no trouble taking that on the phone either. She said it would only last 15 minutes and were right there. I don’t know what amount they were allowing, but only had small amounts on so as not to risk getting knocked back.
Value Is EverythingAh I see! I think 2/1 is too big at any rate, but it should produce a worthy winner no matter what result. Think it could be a good day for the Hammer & Trowel Syndicate with Twigline also running. Best of luck
Well done THM, Quevega won in a style that suggests she’d have won even if Solwhit had been in the race.
5:30 Punchestown
32 points each way @ 5/1 (b365) Rock On Ruby* (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingAbove bet 1/4 first 2
EDIT: Well, not above then.
The last bet on the last page 1/4 first 2.
Value Is Everything
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