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I lied.
2:40 Uttoxetter
50 points @ 11/4 (B365) Hunters Lodge* (min 5/2)
27 points @ 15/8 (B365) Savant Bleu (min 7/4)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
See you’ve had a good day too Ginge! I hit the Kaylif Aramis and Hunters Lodge double, Sam TD is probably my favourite jockey at the moment.
4:25 Uttoxetter
52 points @ 9/4 (B365) Galway Jack* (min 85/40)Value Is EverythingSee you’ve had a good day too Ginge! I hit the Kaylif Aramis and Hunters Lodge double, Sam TD is probably my favourite jockey at the moment.
Having an outstanding day Ben. Took 11/1 Big Occasion for the Midlands National too.
Galaxy Jack. It can’t happen, can it?
To think I was going to have a day off today!
Who needs Cheltenham eh Ben?
Value Is EverythingGalaxy Jack. It can’t happen, can it?
It has!
Bets in 4 races, 4 main bets WON!
Value Is EverythingCalculator doesn’t work properly. After checking this week should read:
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday +286 points
Friday +350.1 pointsCheltenham Total
Saturday +559.8 points.
including one non-runner and 0.05% R4.After Wednesday I was not looking forward to working out this week’s total.
Profit on week +530.27 points
Total Profit +4896.63 points
Value Is EverythingGreat day Ginge, very well played and a fantastic turnaround from 1st 2 days of Cheltenham.
Excellent work yesterday Ginge,you should stick to what you do best and leave the Ante-Post stuff to me!!
Funny enough I’ve just made some notes Gord… although I didn’t see that many ante-post winners on your thread either, especially remembering all those who didn’t turn up.
Will need to learn some lessons for next year Softie.
Reduce the number of ante-post bets.
It’s ok betting on Blue Riband Championship races; Gold Cup (if a "stayer" at the trip), Champion and Stayers Hurdles are fine. Beware Ryanair/Champion Chase.
Think seriously before betting ante-post in handicaps and any novice that may end up in a handicap… At least until non-runner no bet comes in. Supreme might be ok if they show plenty of speed (unlikely to stay Neptune trip), Albert Bartlett is ok if it’s such a stayer unlikely to be fast enough in Neptune.Consider taking a slightly smaller price for "to win at the festival".
Remember it’s not only gambling on whether the horse is of top quality, but also on the going too.
Competition means bookmakers give excellent value on the day.
Don’t bet in too many races, particularly on the first day.
Think about possible biases in ground conditions during racing. Normally when there’s a lot of pace in the race it favours hold up horses. But this year, even in truly/strongly run races it seemed to favour those ridden at or near the pace. ie Certain ground conditions seem to make it difficult to make ground up from the back.
Pay even more attention to local (to the track) trainers, trainers "in form" and horses for courses.
Value Is Everything2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup
16 points @ 25/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 20/1)
32 points @ 8/1 (WH) Sir Des Champs* (min 8/1)Value Is Everything2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup
16 points @ 25/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 20/1)
32 points @ 8/1 (WH) Sir Des Champs* (min 8/1)All things considered… I am thinking
Boston Bob
is worth taking a chance at the price of 25/1.
Absolutely no doubt in my mind he’ll be far better suited to a Gold Cup than Ryanair. Just need to look how he was pushed along (outpaced) in the RSA before coming back on the bridle. Further he went the better he looked. Also needed every yard of 2m5f on soft/heavy to win on penultimate start.
Just hope he doesn’t end up in the Ryanair. Knowing his stable/owner companion
Back In Focus
is even more of a stayer… Willie Mullins also has
Sir Des Champs
for the Gold Cup… Yet I can’t think of a Ryanair horse in the yard; unless Aupcharlie improves.
So is Willie going to want three Gold Cup challengers and nothing in the Ryanair?
Is Wylie going to want two (possibly three ifTidal Bay
makes it) Gold Cup horses?
May be Boston Bob is another
First Lieutenant
. Running at a trip below optimum purely because of who else the owner/trainer has in the race. However…
Action suggests will be as effective on good ground and will be suited by another couple of furlongs. It’s possible idled badly once in front at Cheltenham. Can’t see any other reason why Townend did what he did coming to the last. Being hit so vigorously on the neck with the whip is bound to unsetle any horse. Possible Boston Bob thought Townend wanted him to go through the rails. Whatever happened, he’d gone so easily, then rushed right around the outside on the turn. Suppose there is a possibility something has changed with Boston Bob’s temperament; but everything we know about his finishing efforts previously – suggests Boston Bob would’ve gone clear. ie Always been a very strong stayer/finisher.
Jumped well up to coming down. As long as a heavy fall does not leave its mark (confidence jumping/injury) – is (imo) the one novice chaser with a chance of making the grade next year. Anyone heard how he is?
Stable companion
Sir Des Champs
is another worth a bet @ 8/1. Beaten fair and square on Friday, however,
Bobs Worth
was in trouble 4 out. I don’t buy the "he’s even better on a sounder surface". Bobs Worth has now put up best two performances on soft ground where stamina is at a premium; Hennessey and Gold Cup. Being a fighter, it’s possible (or even probable) would’ve pulled out more if needed and is still improving. But ground conditions this week played to his strengths, coupled with a strong pace placing a greater emphasis on stamina. There’s also a question whether 7 lengths flattered the winner? Sir Des Champs faltering close home and nowhere near that far behind 50 yards from the line. Again testing conditions playing their part in elongating distances. Sir Des has an action that should be at least as effective on good ground. We also know he’s less of an out and out stayer than Bobs Worth.
Another year, with less testing ground and/or pace could (and only could) see placings reversed. At 8/1 compared to 7/2 Bobs Worth, I’d rather be on the runner-up at this stage.Value Is EverythingSir Des Champs was ridden more handily than I expected in the Gold Cup. I thought he would be one of the last to play his hand but at the end of the day he was outstayed by the winner. I thought he would pop away and creep into the race from 4 out. I was surprised to see him so close to the pace.
Personally I wouldn’t be rushing in to take 8/1 at this stage for next year’s race. If he runs to form he’s a player but 8/1 doesn’t tempt me right now given the normal risks attached to AP betting.
Sir Des Champs was ridden more handily than I expected in the Gold Cup. I thought he would be one of the last to play his hand but at the end of the day he was outstayed by the winner. I thought he would pop away and creep into the race from 4 out. I was surprised to see him so close to the pace.
Personally I wouldn’t be rushing in to take 8/1 at this stage for next year’s race. If he runs to form he’s a player but 8/1 doesn’t tempt me right now given the normal risks attached to AP betting.
I wasn’t surprised Sir Des raced prominently OD, had done so very effectively taking on Flemenstar. Although a little surprised AP chose to challenge the leader to a battle so soon. The "normal risks attached to AP betting" is another reason for backing Sir Des. Good actioned horses are normally sounder animals and unlike Bobs Worth has had two full campaigns to date over fences. Henderson was known to be struggling to get Bobs Worth fit for the RSA. Working poorly just three weeks before Cheltenham. Also needed to miss both Argento and Denman Chase this season due to niggling problems.
Of course OD, it does not mean Sir Des Champs will remain sound, but does have a better chance in making it to Cheltenham 2014 than many.
Value Is EverythingNext bets probably be in a couple of Class 2’s at Haydock and a Class 3 at Warwick on Wednesday. Don’t know whether I’ll be putting the bets up on Tuesday night; don’t quite trust Mr Tellwrong’s going assessments. No problems on that score with Lekha at Warwick.
Value Is EverythingChampion Chase
36 points @ 5/1 (VC) Simonsig* (min 4/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)
18 points @ 16/1 (VC) Cue Card* (min 14/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)Value Is EverythingChampion Chase
36 points @ 5/1 (VC) Simonsig* (min 4/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)
18 points @ 16/1 (VC) Cue Card* (min 14/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)Both bets are
non-runner free bet
. I very much doubt if either will run if
Sprinter Sacre
takes part. If that is the case you get a free bet (promo cash) on any race
ON THE DAY
of the Champion Chase. (
Must
claim it on the day) Up to £50 per horse, £100 per race. (Applies to the big four races, Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Stayers Hurdle and Champion Chase).
Taking out
Sprinter Sacre
from the race:
Sizing Europe
is likely to be too old,
Sanctuaire
is temperamental,
Flemenstar
is a possible but I have doubts he’ll ever turn up at the Festival.
Baily Green
and
Wishfull Thinking
not good enough,
Overturn
will probably need further next year and is on the old side for a novice so may not have enough improvement to figure.
Finians Rainbow
needs to show he’s recovered from breathing problems.
Simonsig
not at best in the Arkle and scoped badly afterwards. Potential shown beforehand suggests he could start a short price without his stable companion. We know from the Neptune acts well on course and on a sound surface.
Cue Card
stays 2m5f well, but of all Ryanair horses has the speed to be fully effective at 2 miles. Chased home Sprinter Sacre in Arkle. Again, fully effective on soft or good ground. Taking out the Great Chaser, Cue Card has just as much class as the previous two Champion Chasers.
Value Is EverythingI see your logic in Simonsig and even more so Cue Card for the Champion Chase GT. Yes Sprinter Sacre looks a shoe in but a year is a long time in racing.
I was very impressed by Cue Card last week. Whilst connections may have the Ryanair or the Gold Cup on their minds the potential insurance of Non Runner Free Bet if he dodges the Champion Chase tempts me at 14/1 or 16/1. I don’t see much else coming out of the Arkle aside from the winner. If for whatever reason the CC opens up then the race would be very tempting for connections.
On another subject I know you are a keen Timeform follower. If you don’t mind me asking how much does it cost per month for the package you subscribe to and what do you get for your money? I might be tempted for the flat season. Thxs.
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