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Aye, Ginger – God forbid you should learn anything!
Aye, Ginger – God forbid you should learn anything!
From you Reet, Never!
Still waiting for your profit making thread.
Value Is EverythingAfter Dynaste had won the Fixed Brush 3m handicap hurdle, David Pipe has suggested he might be sent Novice chasing.
The way Dynaste quickened three out off an already strong pace suggests strongly this is a top class staying hurdle prospect. Very much like last year’s winner Grands Crus.
In my opinion Dynaste should be third favourite for the World Hurdle now. With potential to be Big Buck’s biggest danger come March.
Stable already has a top class staying novice chaser. Are they realy going to go head to head?
16/1 looks too big.
Can’t believe David pipe will go chasing until he’s found out just what Dynaste is capable of.
But will only have a small bet until I know he’s a likely runner.World Hurdle
10 points each way @ 16/1 (T/FD) DynasteValue Is EverythingAye, Ginger – God forbid you should learn anything!
From you Reet, Never!
Still waiting for your profit making thread.
There’s more chance of
Sinitta
realising why she agreed to do ‘I’m a Celebrity’ than reet (The King of Hindsight) running a tipping thread Ginge!
Hennessey Gold Cup
38 points @ 8/1 (VC) Great EndeavourWith three progressive staying chasers seemingly gong for the Betfair Chase instead, this looks easier to win than normal. Great Endeavour looks very well handicapped after winning the Paddy Power with ease. There is a doubt about stamina, yet to win in three attempts at 3 miles plus. However, that does not tell the whole story… Close third to Lie Forrit in a 3m1f110yrds handicap hurdle in soft ground at Cheltenham, his best performance up to that point. Fell in last year’s 3m110yrds handicap chase on good ground at the Festival. Hardly surprising Great Endeavour was so tired two out when coming to grief. Murphy caught out the back as the tapes went up. Despite the strong pace rushed around most of the field to get his customary prominent position and eventually took it up. Did remarkabley well all things considered to be still there two out. Had Great Endeavour got a more conventional prominent ride, in my opinion he’d have at least been placed and would’ve stayed the trip. Newbury is another two furlongs but isn’t such a stiff course. After such a hard race it wasn’t surprising Aintree came too soon and beaten two out over 3m1f on good ground. Although still not certain to get 3m2f110yrds at Newbury (particularly if it’s testing ground), has a far better chance of doing so than a quick glance at the "form" (figures) suggest.
26 points @ 10/1 (WH) Wayward Prince
Wayward Prince finished third in the 3 mile RSA,staying on well and looking as though more of a test of stamina will suit. Probably not over that run when only fourth to Quito De La Roque. Visored to try and get him travelling better, backfired and made several errors. Needs to brush up his jumping to win a big handicap like this, but provided he does so looks value at around 10/1.
Value Is EverythingHENNESSEY GOLD GUP NEWBURY Preview
B0186-
Neptune Collonges
(224 days)
10 11-12 Paul Nicholls
168:
Neptunes Collonges wouldn’t be out of this even under top weight at his very best of a few years ago. Now 10 years old and had injuries since, so it’s unlikely he’s up to producing form that saw him placed in the Gold Cup. Won a poor Cotswold Chase last season from the enigmatic Tidal Bay, making all under AP McCoy. Now ridden by very promising 7lb claimer Harry Derham. Neptune Collonges has himself showed some temperamental traits recently. Possibly does not like being crowded. Races genuinely when able to race prominently.433-1
Joncol
(23 days)
8 11-6 Paul Nolan
(Ireland) 162:
Joncol is yet to race in Britain but is one of the best staying chasers in Ireland. Won Grade 1 Irish Hennessey in February 2010. Thought not to be a Cheltenham type, possibly to do with jumping out to his right (sometimes markedly so). Something that must be a worry around here. Most of his form (which looks exposed) is with plenty of give in the ground. Big brute of a horse, who wasn’t the most consistent last year. Probably didn’t need to be at his best on reappearance.01/35-
Planet Of Sound
(315 days)
9 11-2 Philip Hobbs
158: Three time Newbury winner Planet Of Sound finished third in Betfair Chase to Imperial Commander before a distant 5th in King George. Said to have choked and not seen since. Might have had a wind operation in interim. Well handicapped on form of 2010 Guinness Gold Cup win. That seems a stand out performance and there are question marks about all three who chased him home, War Of Attrition, Cooldine and Denman. Planet Of Sound has to prove himself at the trip.
12F2-1
Sarando
(19 days)
6 10-11 Paul Webber
153: Sarando almost took advantage of top Irish novice Quito De La Roque’s stumble when a neck second at 50/1 in Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree over 3m1f. Fit from a run on the flat when easily accounting for the inexperienced, slow jumping Aikman on reappearance. Races prominently / tracks pace. Gets a 4 lb penalty for that win, doesn’t look especially well handicapped, but Sarando is only a six year old and could yet improve further. Effective on good as well as soft ground.
111P-2
Aiteen Thirtythree
(26 days)
7 10-10 Paul Nicholls
152: Aiteen Thirtythree was talked up as the Nicholls Hennessey prospect since early last season. Whether he’d be so short without those words from the trainer is debatable. Difficult to know quite what he’s achieved. Made just about all in a couple of small field novice chases, winning by significant margins on each occasion. However, both runners-up Tarsblaze and Voramar Two made it easy by making numerous mistakes. Then Aiteen Thirtythree went to Cheltenham for the RSA, never travelling with same fluency and pulled up, reportedly had leg treatment afterwards. Again led on reappearance at Kempton over inadequate 2m4f, 3 lengths second to Somersby at level weights in a virtual match. Walsh easy on him once passed going to the last. Winner went on to be a good second to Master Minded in Ascot’s Amlin Chase. Whether he’s well handicapped depends on if Henrietta Knight’s charge needed to be anywhere near best at Kempton? Aiteen Thirtythree is lightly raced and undoubted potential to improve, particularly at this trip in his first handicap chase. Front runner over fences and remains to be seen how he’ll like being taken on.
6119P-
Blazing Bailey
(224 days)
9 10-9 Alan King
151: Blazing Bailey usually races lazily and as such will possibly need this first outing of the season. Used to be a top class hurdler at his best, not so good over the larger obstacles but handicap mark accounts for that. Inconsistent these days and lost form again in the spring. Although quirky and often gets behind, is genuine in a finish. Possibly too exposed to win a big handicap like this.
62F6-1
Great Endeavour
(14 days)
7 10-9 David Pipe
151: Great Endeavour won the Paddy Power with ease. Set to go up 10 lbs in future handicaps and gets just a 4 lb penalty for winning by 7 lengths, so officially 6 lbs well-in. There is a doubt about stamina, yet to win in three attempts at 3 miles plus. However, that does not tell the whole story… Close third to Lie Forrit in a 3m1f110yrds handicap hurdle in soft ground at Cheltenham, his best performance up to that point. Fell in last season’s 3m110yrds handicap chase on good ground at the Festival. Hardly surprising Great Endeavour was so tired two out when coming to grief. Murphy caught out the back as the tapes went up. Despite a strong pace rushed around most of the field to get his customary prominent position. All things considered did remarkably well to be still there two out. Had Great Endeavour got a more conventional prominent ride, in my opinion he’d have at least been placed and would’ve stayed the trip. I hear connections are going to adopt new hold up tactics. There must surely be a reason for Murphy’s actions at the Festival. Does Great Endeavour need to race prominently? If held up I hope he goes around the outer to prevent being crowded. Who knows, with so many prominent runners, it might help him to be held up. Newbury is another two furlongs but isn’t such a stiff course as Cheltenham. After such a hard race it wasn’t surprising Aintree came too soon, can be excused another defeat over 3m1f on good ground. Although still not certain to get 3m2f110yrds, particularly if it’s testing ground; has a far better chance of doing so than a quick glance at the "form" (figures). Two weeks doesn’t seem a long time before reappearing, but six others here ran on Paddy Power day. Despite stamina doubts still remains a value bet in my opinion at around 7/1.
B121-
Beshabar
(224 days)
9 10-8 Tim Vaughan
150: Beshabar showed improved form tackling extreme distances (4 miles plus) on last two starts of 2010/11. Won the Scottish National as a novice off a mark of 146, a rise of 4 lbs looks very fair. Raced prominently along with second placed Merigo. Also second in National Hunt Chase. Whether the Hennessey trip will be far enough is doubtful. Soft ground might allow him to bring stamina in to play. Being campaigned this year with a view to the Grand National and Chepstow may provide a better winning opportunity.
11134-
Wayward Prince
(232 days)
7 10-8 Ian Williams
150: Wayward Prince finished best of all to be beaten only a length in third in 3 mile RSA. Increased test of stamina sure to play to his strengths. Probably not over that run when only fourth to Quito De La Roque at Aintree. Visor to try and get him travelling better possibly backfiring, making several errors. Hennessey pilot Dougie Costello has ridden him six times, winning five and runner-up once. Equally effective on soft or good ground. Can improve, especially if brushing up his jumping and looks value at around 10/1.
6649-3
Carruthers
(14 days)
8 10-4 Mark Bradstock
146: Carruthers often ruins his chance by going off too fast for his own good, including on reappearance at Cheltenham. Better than form figures suggest if ridden with a little more restraint. Front running is fine, but there’s no need to try and slip the field so early. There are other possible front runners in the field which may count against him. Particularly good strike rate with plenty of give underfoot, although also good fourth in 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup on good ground. Dropped 10 lbs since finishing 6th in last year’s Hennessey.
31311/
Michel Le Bon
(730 days)
8 10-4 Paul Nicholls
146: Michael Le Bon must be showing something on the gallops. Not seen under rules since this meeting in 2009. Making all to win his only steeplechase, with any amount in hand by 60 lengths from only one other finisher. Lightly raced with only five career starts, which hasn’t stopped him having a good record at Newbury, two wins and a third. Successful at the furthest he’s raced over (3m1f) and on soft as well as good ground. Stable second string on jockey bookings, Nicholls thinks Michel Le Bon has just as good a chance as Aiteen Thirtythree. Noel Fehily takes the ride. Very inexperienced and unlikely to get his own way in front, has bags of potential if remaining sound.
631418
Muirhead
(28 days)
8 10-4 Noel Meade
(Ireland) 146: Muirhead has a chance on form, wins his fair share of races but like many from the Meade / Carberry partnership doesn’t find much off the bridle. Disappointing 6th last time out at Ascot, beaten before hampered. Comfortable winner on penultimate start of Munster “National” (3 miles). Yet to race further than a bare 3 miles. Travels well in his races, effective at much shorter distances and not certain to stay this far. Although a winner on heavy, will be best suited by conditions which place an emphasis on speed at this 3m2f110yrds trip.
1UF-4U
The Giant Bolster
(14 days)
6 10-4 David Bridgewater
146: Encouraging fourth on reappearance over an inadequate two and a half miles. Yet to try this trip, has looked a lazy sort on occasions and should stay if conditions aren’t testing. However, failed to get around on three of last four starts, including unseating at the first fence in Paddy Power Gold Cup last time. Stable going better this season so it won’t be a surprise if he showed some improvement if everything comes together, particularly as he’s only six years old.
111P-
Wymott
(255 days)
7 10-2 Donald McCain
144: Wymott looked to have a good each way chance in the RSA. Wore cheek pieces for the first time there and if memory serves weak in the market on the day. Never looked happy, soon behind and jumping poorly. A small hairline fracture diagnosed. Winner of three small novice chases prior to Cheltenham and seemed a genuine sort. Mark of 144 could look lenient if retaining enthusiasm. Winner of a Grade 2 hurdle beating Wayward Prince at level weights. Too long ago to be significant to the two’s chances against each other. Does prove Wymott’s class. If anything, appeals as the sort to make a better chaser than hurdler. Trip won’t be a problem, best form so far on a soft surface.
34-U26
Fair Along
(14 days)
9 10-0 Philip Hobbs
142: Fair Along is better over hurdles, good second to Restless Harry penultimate start. Lower handicap mark over fences takes that in to account. Possibly increasingly quirky. Nothing wrong with finishing effort, but often sulks when unable to lead. This may not be the ideal race for him, with so many prominent horses likely to take him on. Led in to start last time, well beaten sixth to Galaxy Rock. Although pushed along behind rivals isn’t certain to stay this distance. Possibly best suited by a sound surface these days, has a top-of-the-ground action (points toe).
1P-15P
Balthazar King
(14 days)
7 10-0
(long handicap 9-13)
Philip Hobbs
141: Balthazar King stays 3m2f well. Seemed a progressive young chaser when winning at Cheltenham’s October meeting on reappearance. Disappointing since, another who likes to lead and possibly doesn’t jump as well when unable to get his own way. Might be one to look out for in a race he’s more likely to dominate. One pound out of handicap if Neptunes Collonges runs.
123-5F
Tullamore Dew
(14 days)
9 10-0
(9-12)
Nick Gifford
140: Tullamore Dew isn’t usually a poor jumper and it’s hoped a reappearance fall hasn’t effected confidence. Effective from the front or held up. Very good third to Divers in Centenary Novice Handicap Chase, 2m4f at the Cheltenham Festival. Winner subsequently franked the form with third in Paddy Power Gold Cup. Tullamore Dew is unraced further than 2m5f, should get a bit further but 3m2f110yrds is questionable. Despite stamina doubts and 2 lbs out of the handicap looks a fairly priced outsider if taking his chance.
028-15
Billie Magern
(14 days)
7 10-0
(9-11)
Nigel Twiston-Davis
139: Billie Magern won on reappearance before raced from 5lbs out of the weights in Paddy Power Handicap last time. Fair 5th, beaten 28 lengths by Great Endeavour. Set to renew rivalry on only 6 lbs better terms (set to be 3 lbs out of handicap on Saturday). Showed there he does not need to lead, outpaced before staying on. Proven at 3 miles, second to Master Of The Hall in below par Reynoldstown last season. Full brother to Ollie Magern so should stay this far. Looks more exposed than most here unless he can improve at the trip. Acts well on soft as well as a sound surface.
P1R-12
Qhilimar
(27 days)
7 10-0
(9-9)
Charlie Longsdon
137: Qhilimar was in good form in the Autumn, winning at Newton Abbott and second in valuable Cumberland Handicap at Carlisle. Staying on well at 3 miles and will be better suited by a return to this trip. His excellent trainer was banging in the winners when Qhilimar was last seen out; only 1 winner from 22 runners in last fortnight. Refused once when out on his feat in Midlands Grand National. Is 5lbs out of the weights if top weight Neptune Collonges runs.
My 100% Book:
Great Endeavour 5/1, Wayward Prince 7/1,
Wymott 17/2, Aiteen Thirtythree 9/1, Michel Le Bon 12/1, Sarando 14/1, Beshabar 16/1, Planet Of Sound 22/1, Carruthers 22/1, Joncol 25/1,
Tullamore Dew 25/1,
The Giant Bolster 33/1, Muirhead 40/1, Blazing Bailey 50/1, Billie Magern 66/1, Neptunes Collonges 80/1, Qhilimar 80/1, Fair Along 100/1, Balthazar King 100/1.
Value Is EverythingGinger: Very good and enjoyable read. I am on 1833 at 8s (win) and Michel le Bon (EW) at 25s.
The race will be superb and they will go a great clip with Carruthers and 1833 setting the pace. The one that i feel could upset them all (as long as he cuts out the clangers) is Wayward Prince but i’ll stick with what i have and will do a RFC with both!
Good luck
2:45 Newbury
24 points @ 11/1 (L) Buffalo Bob
23 points @ 15/2 (b365) ZarrafaktValue Is Everything2:45 Newbury
24 points @ 11/1 (L) Buffalo Bob
23 points @ 15/2 (b365) Zarrafakt12 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) That’lldoboy
10 points @ 7/1 (b365) Rackham Lerouge
8 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) QuocotiepValue Is Everything12:30 Newbury
45 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Kentford Grey Lady
22 points @ 2.05/1 (betfair) Tempest RiverValue Is Everything2:45 Newbury
24 points @ 11/1 (L) Buffalo Bob
23 points @ 15/2 (b365) Zarrafakt12 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) That’lldoboy
10 points @ 7/1 (b365) Rackham Lerouge
8 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Quocotiep11 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) That’lldoboy
Value Is EverythingFighting Fifth Hurdle Newcastle
50 points @ 7/2 (WH, nrnb) OverturnValue Is EverythingAnother good day at the office today, bets in two races and two wins.
Now for tomorrow:3:15 Newbury
45 points @ 3/1 (PP) Rileyev
15 points @ 7/2 (PP) Hold Fast
6 points @ 10/1 (PP) Oh CrickAll bog.
Value Is Everything
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